2015 Stanley Cup Finals Preview

It's June of 2015, good has triumphed over evil, and there's a potential dynasty in the making.

By Game 7 fortunes, I was able to nail down the matchup of the 2015 Stanley Cup Final. We are thus rewarded with a treat of a matchup between two highly skilled teams that both had to overcome some hurdles to get to hockey's biggest stage.

Many people predicted this matchup a month and a half ago (myself included on the NHL's Bracket Challenge)... now it's here! Let's dig into it.

Chicago Blackhawks (beat ANA in seven) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (beat NYR in seven)
Teams split their season series (Blackhawks won in a shootout)

First, a little history. The Lightning have been in the NHL since the 1992-93 season. Much of their history is forgettable, as a majority of their time in the league hasn't resulted in a playoff berth. However, they had a magical 2003-04 season when they won the Stanley Cup, and in recent years, they have been building a young core reminiscent of that in Chicago in the latter part of the last decade and have the right structure in place to get here. They face the old guard, a Blackhawks team that has made the Western Conference Finals five times in the last seven years, now in their third Cup Final, with the honor of lifting Lord Stanley twice in that span.

Both teams had a difficult road to get this far. Tampa struggled in the first round against an always tough Detroit team, but were able to pull out a Game 7 win to advance. They then were able to knock out two of the best goaltenders in the league in Montreal's Carey Price and New York's Henrik Lundqvist, at times making both look like minor leaguers with barrages of goals. The Blackhawks, meanwhile, overcame an early 3-0 deficit in their first playoff game as well as a goalie controversy to knock out Nashville in six games, got a surprising sweep of the Minnesota Wild to shut up all the talk about Devan Dubnyk, then despite relying heavily on their top four defensemen, outlasting a physical (sometimes to the point of dirty) Ducks team to become the third straight team to eliminate them in Anaheim in Game 7 after the Ducks led the series three games to two.

I had mentioned before the last round about the early struggles of Steven Stamkos, who failed to score in the first eight games of the playoffs, and having just three through two rounds. He added four goals and three assists to bring his playoff point total to 17 for the year... and that's only the third best mark on the squad. Tyler Johnson continues his hot play (12 goals and nine assists in 20 games), while his mates on the "Triplets Line" have also excelled: Nikita Kucherov has 19 points (nine goals and 10 assists) and Ondrej Palat has 15 (seven goals and eight assists). Stamkos has no slouches as his linemates either, with Valtteri Filppula and Alex Killorn are also in double figures. They also boast an elite defenseman in Victor Hedman, who has ten points and is a +11 for the playoffs. Goaltender Ben Bishop struggled a bit against the Rangers, seeing his save percentage drop to a .920, but he's allowing just a 2.15 goals against average, so he has been very, very good.

It's fun to see those numbers, because the Blackhawks are pretty similar. Chicago also has seven skaters with at least 10 points on the playoffs, only they are led by the guy you expect to lead them. Patrick Kane struggled a bit early in the Ducks series, but came alive as the series went deeper, and his 10 goals and 10 assists give him 20 points to lead the way. Jonathan Toews hasn't always scored goals with regularity in the playoffs, but he has nine to go along with nine assists to tie for second. Those are the bulk goal-scorers, though Brandon Saad picked up the pace a little bit against Anaheim with his breakaway speed leading to a couple big early goals in Chicago wins. In something of a "desperation mode", Joel Quenneville made these guys the top line for the final two games, and they did not disappoint, destroying Anaheim's top line. The bigger talk for Chicago has been its defense, in particular Duncan Keith, who leads all defensemen with 18 playoff points (including 16 assists) and a whopping +13 while logging copious minutes. Brent Seabrook has also been his usual effective self (six goals, four assists, +6). Meanwhile, after the first round hiccups, Corey Crawford has returned to his solid form with a .919 save percentage, even though his goals against average is still kind of high at 2.56.

Both teams boast great speed and elite scorers, so both Bishop and Crawford may see their numbers decline a bit. The Blackhawks have faced some tough offenses (Anaheim in particular), though it could be argued that Tampa is better. Meanwhile, the Lightning really haven't faced the kind of offensive threat that the Hawks can bring to the table. To reverse it though, the Hawks still have some concerns with defensive depth. Their top four of Keith, Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Johnny Oduya have played a ton of minutes to cover up the rotating cast at five and six. Kyle Cumiskey did well in limited time in the last six games, and Quenneville replaced veteran Kimmo Timonen, who looked lost and out of shape at times with David Rundblad for the final two games (though Rundblad dressed for Game 1 to replace the injured Michal Rozsival). Even as a Hawks fan, I have to wonder how much the Hawks defense has left in the tank, though Duncan Keith is clearly some sort of cyborg sent to secure the dynasty's place in history. That lack of defensive depth is still a concern, especially against a team like the Lightning who can score at will. Going the other way though, most of this core for the Lightning haven't been to this stage before (there are a few former Rangers who played in last year's Cup Final, and Filppula won the Cup with Detroit some time back), and they're going against a proven champion who has already shown resiliency night in and night out.

The Lightning will give the Hawks some fits. But ultimately, I think there's too much experience for the Hawks. Bishop has had some off games, something he can't afford to do against an offense of this level. We'll probably see at least a couple overtime games, because that's what happens this time of year, and the Lightning will look great, if not insurmountable at times. However, I refuse to count out the heart of a champion. Make it three in six years, and this time... the party can kick off at the Madhouse with 22,000-plus delirious fans screaming in delight as The Captain hoists the toughest trophy in all of sports to win. Blackhawks in six.