Saturday, May 16, 2015

2015 Stanley Cup Conference Finals Preview

And then there were four.

The second round predictions went pretty well, as I set up the conference finals correctly in the West, while  the East was a little more chaotic (though I went against my Bracket Challenge pick with this; I originally had Tampa advancing past Montreal while the COAS pick had the Habs moving on).

So, without any further ado, here's a look at the conference finals matchups.

Chicago Blackhawks (beat MIN in four) vs Anaheim Ducks (beat CAL in five)
Blackhawks won two out of three regular season meetings

After playing little brother to the Los Angeles Kings for the past few years, the Ducks finally made their way back to the Western Conference Finals, their first berth since their 2007 Cup run. After running through a pair of Canadian teams that were good, but not necessarily great, they get to prove their worth against a Blackhawks team that is appearing in the Conference Finals for the third year in a row and fifth time in seven years.

For a long time, the Ducks were considered a one line team led by Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. Perry has been a Conn Smythe nominee pretty much from the get go, notching a league-leading 15 points in the playoffs so far, and Getzlaf leads the league in assists this spring. However, 13 Ducks have lit the lamp through nine games and nine of them have at least two. The addition of Ryan Kesler to center their second line was huge, and he's responded with four goals and five helpers against the Jets and Flames. Meanwhile, Frederik Andersen has been excellent, posting a 1.96 goals against average while stopping 92.5 percent of the shots he's faced.

They have a mountain ahead of them in this series, though. Patrick Kane shook off the rust from his collarbone injury to torment poor Devan Dubnyk, and he's the best offensive weapon Anaheim has seen so far in the playoffs. The Hawks' top line of Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, and Brandon Saad have also been deadly at both ends of the ice, and will probably help bring the Ducks' top lines to a halt. If there's one spot of concern for Chicago, it's the defense. They're thin at the blue line this year, especially now with Michal Rosival out for the year with a broken ankle and Kimmo Timonen getting limited minutes. Anaheim has to take advantage when Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Johnny Oduya are off the ice.

All in all, Anaheim will probably be Chicago's toughest test. But in a world where things come in threes, it seems only fitting that this core's third trip to the Cup Finals goes through the one California team they haven't faced yet. The Honda Center will be tough, but can the Ducks do any damage in the Madhouse? I think not. Blackhawks in six.

Tampa Bay Lightning (beat MTL in six) vs New York Rangers (beat WSH in seven)
Lightning won all three regular season meetings

Tampa got revenge for a first round sweep last year, though Montreal made them work for it, and the Lightning are in the Eastern Conference finals for only the third time in franchise history, and the first time since 2011. Meanwhile, the Rangers are making their second straight appearance and third in the last four years after adding another chapter to the Washington Capitals' Book of Blown Series Leads.

For the Rangers, once again it's primarily about the guy in net. Henrik Lundqvist is having a phenomenal postseason, posting a 1.60 goals against average with a save percentage of .944. That has helped a team that has scored just 24 goals in 12 games this postseason. Derrick Brassard and Derek Stepan lead the team in scoring with eight points apiece, with Stepan being the hero in Game 7 against Washington.

They go up against a Tampa team that needed a little time at the start of the playoffs to get going, but they're in good shape now. Ben Bishop has been very good as well, with a .931 save percentage and a 1.88 goals against average. They've gotten a lot more offense though, even with Steven Stamkos not lighting the lamp a ton (he has 10 points, but only three goals). Tyler Johnson has emerged as a playoff hero, as he leads the NHL with eight goals in these playoffs. Nikita Kucherov has also emerged with 11 points to help out. The Bolts will need those guys to continue their barrage, but they'll have to do it against another great goaltender.

This shapes up to be a fantastic series. New York has the edge in experience and a slight edge in goal, while I think Tampa has the edge elsewhere. Their regular season success doesn't mean anything now, but their offensive success compared to New York has to mean something. I think it comes down to the wire, and with the goaltender advantage not as dominant as some might think, I'll give the significantly better offense a slight edge, and Henrik Lundqvist will see his streak in Game 7's get snapped. Lightning in seven.

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