NCAA Tournament Preview: Middlebury College vs. North Central College

When you are a fan of a Division III school, there's one mecca that you want your school's sports teams to reach: Salem, Virginia. It's the site of the Stagg Bowl, D-III's football championship game (unofficially named the Purple Bowl after seven straight Mount Union/Wisconsin-Whitewater battles there) and in previous years the site of the D-III Final Four. This year they're showcasing twice as many games as they get the quarterfinals and semifinals. And for the first time, North Central is crashing the party at the Salem Civic Center.

I made it 0-3 on tournament games this season and wasn't tracking the game, but fortunately the Cardinals were able to put enough distance between them and the Titans late to secure a berth in the Elite 8. You knew whichever team made it out of the Bracket of Death was going to have a good shot at winning the whole thing, and I certainly believe the Cardinals can. But this is another Bracket of Death the Cardinals will have to navigate. For all the praise the CCIW gets, you certainly have to include the NESCAC as another of those elite conference in Division III with all 3 of its entrants surviving to this point. The Cardinals get one of them on Friday.

Middlebury College vs. North Central College
Salem Civic Center (Salem, VA)- Fri. March 22, 2013- 7:30pm

About Middlebury College
From Middlebury, VT
25-3, At Large team from NESCAC
Defeated Curry 68-66 in the first round, defeated Cortland State 67-63 in the second round, defeated Ithaca 73-72 in the third round.

What really scares me about this Middlebury team looking at their schedule is that of their 3 losses, only one came in regulation, and it was by one point. The others needed at least one overtime to decide (one game needed 3). On the other hand, 2 of those losses were to Williams (sitting on the other side of the bracket facing #1 St. Thomas) and the 3OT loss was to Amhert (#2 seed, possibly looming in the semis). We could be looking at North Central storming through the elite of New England depending on how those other games play out.

At hand though is a very tough team, looking at the numbers and given how many close games they've had to play. Middlebury boasts a better scoring average at 78.5 points a game but also gives up a little over 65, compared to North Central's 69.6/58.5 splits. If anything, if this game gets slowed down it plays more into the Cardinals' favor because they're used to stifling defense.

Individually, the guy who scared me most based on season numbers was big man Peter Lynch, who at 6'6" is like Middlebury's version of Landon Gamble, scoring 15 points a game on 63% shooting. However, he's only averaged 11.7 in the tournament and was held in check by Ithaca last night (8 points on 2-7 shooting). However, the Panthers had their backcourt step up. Guys like Joey Kizel (14.2 on the season, 16 in the tournament) and Nolan Thompson (12.6, 13.7) have stepped up their games to make up for it. They are a streaky outside shooting team (shot 3-18 from deep in the first round and 14-25 last night) but that can be dangerous if they're on. The key is for their role players to step up.

That's what makes me really believe the Cardinals can come through and win the title. Derek Raridon isn't scoring quite as much (13.7 points per game in the tournament, averaging 14.6 on the year), and Gamble hasn't done as much since his 17 point game in the first round (19 in the past 2 games), but other guys have stepped up. Charlie Rosenberg had 11 off the bench in the first round. Last week Brandon Williams was perfect from the field with 13 points en route to knocking off the defending champs, and last night it was Jack Burchett dropping 18. Meanwhile Vince Kmiec has evolved into a great two-way player, setting a new school single-season record for steals with 64 so far, and will probably break the school's all time record before CCIW play begins next season. This team just seems to have an aura about them that seems like they are destined to end up in Atlanta. If the Cardinals win Friday, the winner of the Amherst-Cabrini game would loom on Saturday and hopefully I'll have a couple most posts about this team to come, including one about a victorious return to Naperville with trophy number 31! Go Cardinals!