2024 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 18

And so it all comes down to this.

A few playoff spots are still up for grabs in the NFL, and as far as the coalition goes, there are a couple races up for grabs. Taking all of Week 17 into account (as we split it into two parts), Adam and I split our two disputed games, while Joe took five of seven from each of us. As a result he's come roaring back into a giant bunch in the middle of the pack.

That pack of us is really only fighting for the column title at this point, as we are well off the pace at the top. That title is a two-horse race between Geoffrey and Jim, who have caught fire as the season has gone along.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. I think the thing I'm most happy with, besides leading the hero win rate race even with a small sample size, is that barring a collapse we're looking at a phenomenal consensus win rate. Unless we go 0-5 this week, we'll finish above .500 for the fourth time in the last five seasons, and we're currently on track to finish with the best mark in that category since we started keeping track in 2016.

And so as we look ahead to the final round, Adam and I disagree on a whopping 10 games, Joe and I on just three, and the two of them on seven games out of 16. For the final time this season... let's get to it!

2024 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 17 (Part 2)

Hope you all had a good holiday! The coalition made its early picks already, and now we return for the remainder of the Week 17 slate.

I'm not off to a great start, as I whiffed on both Christmas Day games as well as the Thursday contest; everyone else in the group managed to hit on at least one. This means Joe has pulled to within one game of me, while Adam now has a two game edge with the three of us all taking Seattle in the Thursday game. The top of the board remains the top of the board, and they appear to have pulled clear for the group title this season, with Geoffrey currently boasting a one game lead on Jim.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. No hero picks were made on Christmas.

Looking ahead to the remainder of the week, Adam and I disagree on just a single game, Joe and I on five, and the two of them on six of the remaining 13. Let's get to it!

2024 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 17 (Part 1)

We're briefly working the holiday... at least long enough to cover the holiday as the coalition comes down to the end of the 2024 season!

The good news last week is I got myself back into the column contest and Adam regressed to the mean. Joe and I each took three of four from him while we split our four disputed games. That cuts Adam's lead to me down to just a single game with 32 to play.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. Overall group wise, it's pretty much a two-man race at this point as Jim and Geoffrey are five games up on Adam at this point.

You'll notice the title says this is a Part 1. With games on Christmas day, and Christmas falling in the middle of the week, we're grabbing the early games on the schedule and will follow up later this week with the rest.

For Part 1, Adam and I disagree on one, Joe and I on two, and the two of them on one gamee out of the first three on the Week 17 docket. From all of us at Confessions of a Sportscaster, have a Merry Christmas! Let's get to the picks.

Game Notes: (MBK) Concordia- Chicago @ North Central College (12/20/24)

Final Score
NCC 86, CUC 78

Game Summary
This one started great, as the Cardinals (9-2) opened the game with a 12-4 lead. However the Cougars (4-5) stayed tough with the Cardinals, going on a 15-3 run to take their first lead of the game. Despite trading baskets for a bit, the Cardinals ultimately took control, taking a 40-34 lead into the break. The Cougars started strong in the second half though, fighting back and taking a 50-49 lead about five minutes into the final stanza. But a quick 5-0 Cardinal run flipped the momentum, and a separate 15-0 Cardinal run that spanned five minutes effectively sealed the deal, with Concordia getting some garbage time points to make this game closer than it appeared.

Key Players

• Terrance Moncrief (NCC): 8-9 FG (2-2 3PT), 1-4 FT; 19 pts, 5 reb (1 off), 3 ast, 1 blk. I walked into Merner about 20 minutes before tipoff, Terrance saw me, and said something to the effect of "We need you." Though early on, T was enough, as he scored 10 of NCC's first 12 points in the opening five minutes. He did get himself into trouble late in the first half though, picking up his second foul with just over five minutes remaining, then compounding the issue with a technical foul in the immediate aftermath. It ended up not mattering, as Moncrief did not pick up another foul, and scored seven in the second half to help push the Cardinals to the victory.
• Tyler DiSilvio (NCC): 4-7 FG (1-3 3PT), 2-2 FT; 11 pts, 2 reb, 2 ast, 3 stl. While Alejandro Diaz (16 pts) was the second-leading scorer for the Cardinals and paced the team with five steals, DiSilvio's personal 5-0 run that was mentioned above ended up being the turning point in the game. DiSilvio hit a pair of free throws to give the Cardinals a 51-50 lead, and he followed that up with a three to push the lead to four, and the Cardinals essentially never looked back from there.
• Jacob Collicott (CUC) 13-22 FG (2-5 3PT), 2-3 FT; 30 pts, 5 reb, 5 ast, 1 blk, 2 stl. Throughout the game, Collicott struck me as the kind of guy you love if he's on your team and hate if he's on the opposing team, but he had a phenomenal floor game as well. He hit some deep shots, and had a lot of success getting to the basket as well. It's was a little surprising, but also not, to see him have the dominant scoring output that he did.

Key Stats

• NCC: 19-29 FT (65.3%). This is not going to get it done against the better teams. The Cardinals got to the line way more in this one (CUC was 5-7 for comparison), and were 10-12 in the first half, but went cold as the game went on, which is part of why the margin was closer than the game really was. This is something the Cardinals will need to work on.
• CUC: Outscored NCC in the paint 54-38. This is also something the Cardinals will need to work on, but it was also partially a function of the Cougars' full court pressure defense. It wreaked some havoc to the tune of 15 Cardinal turnovers (though NCC also forced 15 and outscored the Cougars off turnovers). But between those and some breakdowns in the half court set, the Cardinals do have a little work to do over the holiday.

Final Thoughts

I'm skipping the CCIW scoreboard since we're breaking from conference play for now. But this game wasn't necessarily the prettiest game I've ever seen. There was a lot of sloppy play, with guys getting easily stripped a ton (off the combined 30 turnovers, 20 were a result of steals). Ultimately though, a 30-8 Cardinal run sealed the deal, and the Cardinals beat a team they are better than and won a game they were supposed to.

This puts NCC at 9-2, with a 2-1 CCIW mark. The Cardinals have one more non-conference game against Anderson on 12/30, but are already 7-1 outside of the CCIW, which is phenomenal. So far, with the exception of losing at home to Millikin, they've beaten everyone they're supposed to, although it hasn't always looked pretty. I'm still not sure what the ceiling for this Cardinal team is, but they've never been out of a game and have found ways to win when they haven't been at their best. That'll be good for this group the rest of the way.

Prior to that Anderson game, the Cardinals will get a rare treat of a game at the D-1 level as they go to take on UW-Milwaukee on Sunday. I don't expect the Cardinals to win this game by any stretch of the imagination, but I think they'll at least compete against a team GM'd by former Cardinal Mike Winans.

Following the Anderson game, it'll be all CCIW competition from here on out, and I think this Cardinal team can compete, especially for a home conference tournament game. We'll see how it goes from here.

2024 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 16

Three weeks and just 48 games remain in the 2024 NFL regular season, and we're getting down to the nitty gritty both on the field and in picking what happens on the field.

Turnabout was fair play last week, as Adam swept all six games disputed with me and took three of five from Joe; Joe ended up grabbing six of seven from me. Fortunately the stuff we did agree on worked out well, leaving me with a mediocre mark for Week 15 while Adam ended up tying the best ever mark for a full week's worth of games.

As a result of Adam's bipolar picking tendencies, he's somehow managed to work his way back into contention as he's just one off Geoffrey's pace. I fell off but remain just a few games back. Six of the seven folks in our group are above .500 for the year; Matthew is the only one below, and even then, to be just ten games under for his first time isn't too bad.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. I can no longer boast about a perfect hero record, as that was one of my disputed picks with Joe and Adam. We all also hit on two consensus picks last week to bring our record there back above the .500 mark.

And so as we look ahead to Week 16, we have history this week. While there will never be a week where any of us completely match each other barring some level of shenanigans (likely on my part), this is the first time that our disputed counts all match as we each disagree with each on four separate games. Let's get to it!

Game Notes: (MBK) Carroll University @ North Central College (12/14/24)

Final Score
NCC 68, Carroll 66

Game Summary
There was more drama in the nightcap than there was in the game that preceded it, though at first it didn't seem like it. The Pioneers (2-7, 0-3) took the lead early and just built on it. They had a double digit lead with nine minutes gone in the contest and got it as high as 14 before the Cardinals (8-2, 2-1) started to make some headway and cut it a seven point game before the Pioneers made one late push to end the half up 37-25. After a Kobe Simpson three made it 40-27 about two minutes into the second half, Carroll went cold, and the Cardinals embarked on a 16-3 run that tied the game with under 12 minutes to play. This turned the game into a back and forth classic, with neither team being able to push out to a two possession lead. Carroll tied the game for the 13th time at 66 with about 15 seconds to go. The Cardinals took two and a half ticks to get across halfcourt for a timeout to draw up the final play. And from there... we'll let the video do the work.

Goaltending? You be the judge. #d3hoops pic.twitter.com/gAxIUukjvN

— Lucas Mitzel🎙 (@northsider89) December 15, 2024

Key Players

• Ethan Helwig (NCC): 7-12 FG (2-6 3PT), 4-5 FT; 20 pts, 11 reb, 1 ast, 1 stl.  Helwig was a large factor in the comeback, with 14 of his team-high 20 coming after the intermission. But no play was larger than the final offensive possession when he took a bounce from Alejandro Diaz, lost the handle, somehow got it back, fired up a fadeaway that somehow, someway, bounced home. Just two days after picking a pocket for the game-winning layup at Loras, he does it again.
• Terrance Moncrief (NCC): 8-13 FG (1-1 3PT), 2-3 FT; 19 pts, 6 reb (2 off), 3 ast, 4 stl. Someone came by the table late in the second half and asked what Moncrief was at scoring-wise; it might have even been after he hit his lone three to put the Cardinals up by that much with under 90 seconds to go. You talk about guys have a "quiet" 19 where you aren't really paying attention to his output, go to check the box score at the end of the game and his numbers are really good. Moncrief though, had a loud 19. He was attacking the basket and got a ton of shots to fall, none bigger that that three, even though Carroll immediately came back to tie the game.
• Evan Bland (CRL): 5-8 FG (2-4 3PT); 12 pts, 3 reb. There's probably a few different ways I could've gone, but Bland led the Pioneers in scoring coming off the bench, and hit some big buckets for them in this one. It just wasn't enough on this night.

Key Stats

• NCC: 10-34 FG 1st half (29.4%). This was a big part of it; the Cardinals couldn't buy a bucket early in the game. This mark included a 1-10 effort from beyond the arc. Obviously it got better after halftime (17-30, including 4-9 from beyond the arc), and that helped the Cardinals to a comeback victory.
• CRL: 8-29 FG 2nd half (27.6%). And this ultimately tells the other half. Carroll went about seven minutes without a field goal when the Cardinals were mounting their comeback. The numbers got buoyed by the late efforts to answer Cardinals baskets, but it just wasn't enough.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• CAR 82 (7-2, 2-0), @ AUG 70 (5-3, 1-2)
• NPU 78 (6-3, 3-0), @ WHE 75 (3-8, 0-2)
• BYE: MIL (5-4, 1-1)
• Sunday 4pm: ELM @ IWU

Final Thoughts

Okay, I didn't address it when I dropped the video originally, so let's get to the elephant in the room. Yes, that probably should have been goaltending on Tyler Swierczek. It was pretty clear both in real time and then again on replay that he touched the rim. But in keeping with how most of this game went, they let both teams play.

The Cardinals have now won 12 in a row against Carroll dating back to December of 2018, and that includes a three game sweep last year highlighted by a Sean Molloy fadeaway winning the game in somewhat similar fashion as well as a game in the CCIW Tournament. North Central continues to find ways to win games, even when they don't necessarily play their best. But at 8-2, with a 2-1 mark in CCIW play, they're in good shape.

This is it for conference play for the calendar year. Concordia Chicago comes calling on Friday (a reschedule due to NCC Football doing NCC Football things), plus an exhibition against D-I UW-Milwaukee before the holiday.

Game Notes: (WBK) Carroll University @ North Central College (12/14/24)

Final Score
Carroll 85, NCC 58

Game Summary
This one wasn't pretty. The Pioneers (6-4, 2-1) scored the game's first eight, and while the Cardinals (5-4, 1-1) fought back to cut the deficit to make it a 15-8 ballgame, Caroll finished the opening quarter on an 11-3 run to go up by 15 after ten minutes. A 9-0 Pioneer run keyed their second quarter to a 51-27 halftime advantage. The Cardinals would not threaten in the second half, and Caroll got the lead as high as 32 before settling into the final margin.

Key Players

• Olivia Rangel (CRL): 7-11 FG (1-1 3PT), 3-4 FT; 18 pts, 7 reb (1 off), 4 ast, 1 stl. I could've gone a few different ways, but Rangel had the best floor game for the Pios.
• Emilie Wizner (CRL): 8-15 FG (1-6 3PT), 4-4 FT; 21 pts, 1 reb, 2 ast, 1 stl. Wizner I feel like had kind of a quiet 21. I called her name plenty of times, but it didn't feel like she was the big threat. Maybe part of it was the poor three point night. Regardless, she did enough from elsewhere on the floor to make up for it.
• Elle Sutter (NCC): 5-14 FG (0-1 3PT), 3-4 FT; 13 pts, 10 reb (3 off), 2 ast, 1 blk, 1 stl. Not a great shooting night, as Elle missed some looks from in close (though through contact that was not called much either way all night), and yet she still managed to put up a double-double. For her second official game back, not too bad. She'll get there.

Key Stats

• NCC: 2-15 3PT (13.3%), 14-24 FT (58.3%). It's the combination of these, really. The Cardinals did a poor job at the line, though that wouldn't have been enough to turn the tide. Maybe doing better from deep would have helped. The looks were open, but other than Cate Uhren hitting a pair in the first half... that was it.
• CRL: 56 points in the paint. I mean, considering the Cardinals only scored 58 total, this seems like the game. Carroll did a great job moving the ball around and finding some open looks, and made the Cardinals pay despite them doing all they could.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• @ IWU 93 (9-0, 3-0), ELM 56 (7-2, 1-2)
• CAR 71 (6-2, 1-1), @ AUG 57 (3-7, 1-3)
• @ WHE 68 (6-5, 2-1), NPU 35 (3-7, 0-3)
• UW-Platteville 60, @ MIL 47 (2-6, 1-1)

Final Thoughts

I hate playing Carroll in women's basketball. It's a credit to Lindsey Schultz, her staff, and the players that they continue to dominate this series, winning the past eight matchups between these two teams. While we're nowhere near Wheaton territory yet, it's getting there.

I was hoping for a little more competitive a game, but this team will have to have a short memory and be ready to go, as they hit the road on Tuesday for a game at Coe. That will be their last game before a two week break for the holidays; that game in Iowa will be the first of five straight on the road. North Central will not be home again until January 15th when they welcome Wheaton to town.