2015 AFC South Preview

Another day, another NFL preview. Today we're on to the AFC South. This is probably a better division than the NFC version, but there are some bad teams in the mix in this one.

If you want to read some more in-depth previews for the NFL, you can go check out UKEndZone, where I will once again be contributing this season in addition to my duties here. You can also pick the results of NFL games against the spread with me and Adam in our annual ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. It's free to join, and while I can't offer anything tangible in the way of reward, bragging rights are fun, too.

Let's take a look at the AFC South.

AFC South

Common opponents on schedule: AFC East, NFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts
2014: 11-5 (1st), lost in AFC Championship Game
The Colts have just gotten better and better since Andrew Luck came to town. In each of the last three seasons, they have improved their position and gotten a step further than the year before. This year, Luck has a definite #2 receiver in Andre Johnson to take pressure off of last year's breakout star in T.Y. Hilton. Adding Frank Gore is a definite improvement on the ground as well, so the Colts will score plenty of points. I think their defense is good enough as well to hold their own. We're looking at a team on the verge of elite status if not already there, and one who will be in contention to play in February.
2015 Prediction: 12-4

2. Houston Texans
2014: 9-7 (2nd), missed playoffs 
Houston's offense is a bit of a question mark. Brian Hoyer is who he is at this point: an average quarterback, though he's got some decent weapons. DeAndre Hopkins and Cecil Shorts are okay at wideout, and I'm not sure what's going to happen at running back with Arian Foster rehabbing from surgery. This defense though... holy crap. I'm interested to see what will happen with Jadeveon Clowney now that he's healthy again, Vince Wilfork is a phenomenal nose tackle, the secondary is pretty good... and they have the best defensive player in the game in J.J. Watt. We'll see this team in January, and they might surprise some people if Hoyer can play well enough.
2015 Prediction: 10-6, Wild Card

3. Tennessee Titans
2014: 2-14 (4th), missed playoffs 
Full disclosure: I think I like Marcus Mariota more than I do Jameis Winston. Winston has the better weapons, but I think I prefer Mariota's raw talent. He's going to have a rough go of it during his rookie year, though. His best weapon might be Bishop Sankey, and when that's the case, it's not good. Their defense is decent though, with a healthy Brian Orakpo leading the way. I just don't think they have enough talent yet to compete, though Mariota is a good start.
2015 Prediction: 4-12

4. Jacksonville Jaguars
2014:3-13 (3rd), missed playoffs
I think Blake Bortles will probably be a decent long-term answer at quarterback for the struggling Jaguars, but he's only going into his sophomore season and doesn't have the best of weapons. The run game is decent, but not great, and even if he's healthy, Julius Thomas will see a downgrade after catching passes from Peyton Manning the last couple years. I'm also not really sold on their defense as a whole. This is a team that has been in flux and near the bottom for quite a while, and I really don't see anything that will change that for 2015.
2015 Prediction: 3-13

This is it for NFL previews for a day or so. Tuesday is the designated day to look at college football schedules, so I will take a break for a day to look at those, and I will be back on Wednesday with a look at the NFC West.

2015 NFC South Preview

It is finally that time. We're just 11 days away from the start of the NFL season. It's been a long time coming with a lot of fun stuff in between, but there's just something exciting about fall rolling around and the sense in the air of the approach of football.

Over the span of the next few days, on days where I am not doing posts about college football (aka setting up the Death to the BCS Playoffs), I will go through one division at a time and preview what I think will end up happening. Like I do with all my preseason previews, I save the division with the defending champ for last, and work backwards from there.

For more previews, you can check out my friends at UKEndZone, where I will once again be contributing as well during the season. There are a lot of other great football minds on the site as well who have some great viewpoints on various topics, and I encourage you to check them out.

Also, for the fourth straight season I will be picking NFL games against the spread, and for the second year in a row, my friend Adam Quinn will be joining me in these endeavors. Last year I barely beat him in a contest that came down to the final week, so he'll be trying to take the throne again this season. If you are interested in joining us, you can join for free in our ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group.

With that out of the way, let's get to our previews. I'm kicking things off with the NFC South this year.

NFC South

Common opponents on schedule: NFC East, AFC South

1. Carolina Panthers
2014: 7-8-1 (1st), lost in Divisional Round
This division is probably the weakest in football again, and even the Panthers took a hit from last year. Cam Newton is still around and a threat, Jonathan Stewart is now the go-to back, and there are some weapons still in place for Newton to throw to, even with the loss of Kelvin Benjamin. The defense isn't bad this year either, though I do wonder about the secondary. Adding Charles Tillman, while he's up there in years, is still a decent move to bolster the back end, and I'm not concerned about the front. Having a fairly easy schedule overall helps them too to win the division for a third straight year.
2015 Prediction: 9-7

2. New Orleans Saints
2014: 7-9 (2nd), missed playoffs
Drew Brees is out his favorite weapon with the Jimmy Graham trade, but he still has plenty of toys to work with. Marques Colston and Brandin Cooks make for a decent 1-2 punch at receiver, and while Benjamin Watson is a definite downgrade at tight end, he's still not terrible and has a very good quarterback throwing to him. We'll probably see more of a reliance on the running backs this year though, with Mark Ingram seemingly poised to take a star role in the offense, while C.J. Spiller can break some big gains on the outside. New Orleans also got one of the big defections of the offseason with the Brandon Browner signing. If he's healthy, he can really be an asset to their secondary. I think the Saints will be fine this year, and after a long drought, I see them back in the postseason.
2015 Prediction: 9-7, Wild Card

3. Atlanta Falcons
2014: 6-10 (3rd), missed playoffs
Atlanta has been having some protection issues with their offensive line during the preseason, and while I'm sure at some point they will get solved, I doubt it will be in time to save their season. Matt Ryan is still a good quarterback, and he has two elite weapons to go to in Julio Jones, who just signed a new contact, and Roddy White. The big question for them, obviously, is if both can stay healthy. If they can, they might overachieve. On defense, Vic Beasley is an intriguing first round starter at defensive end, and new coach Dan Quinn will be a boon to this defense, but I don't think they can catch the top teams of this division, at least not this year.
2015 Prediction: 6-10

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2014: 2-14 (4th), missed playoffs
I'll go on record and say this: I think Jameis Winston is overrated. Yes, he has a good arm and the talent to play quarterback in the NFL, but I don't like his off-the-field reputation, and he has that tendency to throw picks at bad times. He's a definite upgrade over what Tampa had last year at the position though, and he's got weapons in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. Problem is, I don't like their defense. Gerald McCoy is a good piece at defensive tackle, and their linebacking corps is okay, but their defense as a whole has too many former Bears who weren't even that good in Chicago. Major Wright? Khaseem Greene? Henry Melton? Chris Conte?! The Bucs will be better than they were last season, but there's still some building that needs to be done.
2015 Prediction: 6-10

I'll be back at the preview game tomorrow with a look at the AFC South.

2015 NBA Tournament of Champions: Second Elimination Round Part 2

Today, we finalize the Elite Eight.

We've greatly narrowed down the field of the NBA Tournament of Champions from the 64 just a couple months ago to eight by the end of today. Were this tournament not going on in computer simulations, games would have been taking place in reality over the last two weeks. I do wish this sort of tournament could take place in reality though, as it would get a more realistic answer, but on the whole, I can't fault the simulator so far.

As a refresher, I am actually keeping all the stats for the Elimination Round. All the data from the Round of 32 is in, and the results from the other half of the Round of 16 games is now as well. You can view those stats on my Google Sheet, and at some point I will try to fill in the blanks from Group Play.

Today's games are part of series that, like yesterday, are best of seven played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format. Home court advantage goes to the higher seed based on finish in Group Play. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Here's the conclusion to the Round of 16.

2015 NBA Tournament of Champions: Second Elimination Round, Part 1

Even though football is just about a week away and I've already done a brief overview of my college football coverage, I'm working to continue going through my brain child of the summer in the NBA Tournament of Champions.

At the beginning of July, we had the last 64 NBA champs ready to do battle with each other. We're down to 16, but today, we look at how the field narrows to eight.

Fun side note before we get to this though: I do still have the spreadsheet where stats are being kept for the tournament, but I'm doing a better job now. While I'm still way behind on pool play (448 games is just too many), I have player stats from the entire Elimination Round in the respective tab on that Google sheet. Check it out, as these will be the main factor in picking out an All Tournament Team in a couple months.

Now to the games. Like last round, these series will be a best of seven played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format. Home court advantage goes once again to the higher seed based on finish in group play. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it.

Spitting on the BCS' Grave

We interrupt the steady stream of basketball on Confessions of a Sportscaster to do something of a preview for college football.

This is my fourth season following the sport to a greater degree than I did growing up, mainly because I inherited my dad's disdain for big time college football's pathetic excuse for deciding a national champion. Where my dad was more apathetic though, I was bored and decided to advocate for a different system.

Some time back, I saw a book at I think Barnes and Noble called Death to the BCS, cowritten by Yahoo!'s Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter and Jeff Passan. These guys exposed the rampant fraud and corruption perpetrated by the now defunct postseason while eviscerating every argument its proponents made. It had an impact on me, and I continue to champion its cause in hopes that the current College Football Playoff will someday expand and stop the elitism against non-traditional "power" schools.

Since that isn't going to happen any time soon, or honestly, probably at all, I'm doing a fourth season of weekly following of the season and setting up a Wetzel/Peter/Passan-inspired playoff. Instead of the four team field officially used, I go with 16: the ten conference champions and six at-large teams. I also add a fun factor: the first three rounds are played on the campus of the higher seeded team because who wouldn't love to see postseason football at some of the most hallowed stadiums in America?

The question remains: how do we decide who makes the field (primarily the at-larges), and how do we seed them? If you follow Confessions of a Sportscaster and read these posts from last year, you probably already know, but here's a refresher for the 2015 season.

Obviously, records and such are important, but I created/adapted a few metrics to help the process along. The first and oldest of these is Non-Conference Schedule Strength, or NCSS. It's not perfect, but it helps paint a picture of each team's schedule. Obviously, the meat of a schedule is the conference slate, and has the most to do with winning a conference and getting into the postseason. Every team has differing "side dishes" as it were to fill out their 12 game gauntlet. I score each team week by week with a point total ranging from -1 on the low end to +3 on the high end depending on who their opponent is. From last year's post, here's a rundown on possible scores.

• -1 point for playing an FCS team at home (since God forbid someone like Michigan or Florida actually travel to one of these schools)
• 0 points for a bye week or playing an in-conference game (this will be the most common score for most teams on a weekly basis)
• 1 point for playing an FBS team from a non-"Power conference" at home or at a neutral site
• 2 points for playing an FBS team from a non- "Power conference" on the road or an FBS team for a "Power conference" at home or at a neutral site
• 3 points for playing an FBS team from a "Power conference" on the road
• NOTE: "Power conferences" are the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and Pac 12.

Year after year, I've discovered that the smaller conferences have tougher non-conference slates than the big schools because they constantly travel to the big schools. This isn't a huge deal in and of itself, but it goes against the argument made by the elitists who go on and on about how tough a schedule their big school faces. You also see every year that almost every team schedules one FCS school, usually at the beginning of the season unless you're one of the handful of cowards from the SEC who pads your win total with a cupcake in the second to last game of the year. (Looking at you, Nick Saban.)

A better metric I use is borrowed and adapted from the Illinois High School Association in playoff points. If you click the link provided, they explain how they seed their football playoffs. I use the "Combined Wins of Defeated Opponents" as First Degree Playoff Points, or PP1, as a primary factor. Any team can win nine or 10 games, but who did you beat to get there? That's where PP1 comes in. The 10 wins against really good teams are better than 10 wins against a bunch of .500 or worse teams, and that's what PP1 measures. I built on that last year though, adding Second Degree Playoff Points, or PP2. This goes a step further and takes the average of First Degree Playoff Points of each defeated team on a school's resume.

These scores then get combined with a pair of computer rankings that use margin of victory to help round things out and remove any personal bias I may have. The late David Rothman set up a ranking that was not used by the BCS because he factored in margin of victory (the BCS refused to include it out of some misguided notion of sportsmanship), and before his death put his formula in the public domain for anyone to use. A faculty member at UCLA uses this and publishes the results. I also take Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings, using the "Final" rating he comes up with instead of the BCS-based one that he was forced to use.

All of these are then loosely combined and looked at by a selection committee of one (though I am open to bringing in outside voices to help decide the field, contact me if you're interested). Last year I also took a step of transparency and posted my Non Conference Schedule Strength and Playoff Point metrics on Google Docs. I have done the same again this season: you can find my spreadsheet with NCSS and PP1/PP2 at this link. I will also post it on the front page of COAS for your convenience.

In the coming weeks, I will be posting two or three times a week with some looks at the college football world. Every week I will do a post on NCSS looking at every conference's schedule for the week and shaming every school that hosts an FCS school to pad their record (I can say that this year because NDSU doesn't have an upper level foe on their schedule this year... Go Bison.) After the games are done, I will calculate current Playoff Points and share the results, again ranking by conference. Once we get a little ways into the season and a bracket can be built without leaving out a single undefeated team, I will start doing weekly mock brackets leading up to the official reveal once all the conference champions are decided. Thursday, September 3rd is the official start of the season, kicking off with Alcorn State at Georgia Tech. I'll have a post on the first of September to look over the Week 1 schedules. Good luck to your teams this season!

2015 NBA Tournament of Champions: First Elimination Round Part 4

Today, we close out the round and establish the final 16 teams that will continue to play for the Championship of Champions.

Today is technically the end of play for the Round of 32, so were this being played in reality, many of these series would be done by now. However, because this tournament is simulated, I've been taking individual series and covering them a few at a time. This is the final batch and the one that will set up the remaining matchups that will come in the next couple weeks.

Like the remainder of this round, and all remaining rounds, every series is a best-of-seven played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format. Home court advantage in this round goes to the higher seed based on finish in Group Play. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's set up the Sweet 16.

2015 NBA Tournament of Champions: First Elimination Round, Part 3

24 teams still remain alive in this year's NBA Tournament of Champions, but by week's end, we will be down to 16.

Today I'm going through four more series to set up the next round, as today's results will officially set up four second round matchups. Will we see any more upsets? Or will home court advantage hold?

Since it's been about two weeks since the games would have started had these games been played in reality, we're all caught up time-wise. Every series is a best-of-seven following a 2-2-1-1-1 format, with home court advantage going to the higher seed based on finish in Group Play. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's see the results.