Game Notes: (MBK) Wheaton College @ North Central College (2/9/19)

Final Score
Wheaton 82, NCC 71

Game Summary
This one couldn't have started worse, as the Thunder (17-7, 10-5) went bombs away to open the game with a 16-6 run. But the Cardinals (18-5, 10-4) survived the initial flurry and managed to work their way back to a 19-all tie. The Cardinals built off that momentum and managed to avoid a later tie and build an eight point lead at 39-31 late in the half. Wheaton cut it to three late, but an Aaron Jones triple just before the buzzer made it 42-36 going into the break. The Cardinals seemed to be in control in the first few minutes, pushing the lead as high as nine a couple times, but the Thunder battled back to tie it at 52 about eight minutes in. The teams then traded leads for a bit, with the Cardinals hanging on to a 67-64 advantage with five and a half to play after a fast break layup. Then the Thunder went bombs away again, hitting three straight threes to make it a four point game, and with the Cardinals struggling offensively, got the dagger with just under two to play and it was over.

Key Players

• Aston Francis (WHE): 17-27 FG (10-19 3PT), 5-8 FT; 49 pts, 5 reb, 1 ast, 1 stl. This man is not human. Francis was red hot early, hitting four straight triples to open the game, including banking one in that kind of set the tone. Some of the early ones he was open on, but as the game went on, North Central was able to get a hand in his face on his releases. Even with that and him fading away... it just didn't matter. 49 is the most I've ever seen from an opposing player, and the second most I've ever seen in person. Good lord.
• Luke Peters (WHE): 3-9 FG (0-1 3PT), 4-7 FT; 10 pts, 8 reb (1 off), 6 ast. I could have gone with Luke Anthony (13 points on 5-8 shooting, including the dagger three), but Peters did all the little things in this one. He scored plenty, but also did a great job on the glass and found the open guy a ton. Five assists came in the first half; three to Francis, plus a fourth to him on the three that tied the game at 67.
• Matt Cappelletti (NCC): 6-12 FG (4-7 3PT), 4-4 FT; 20 pts, 8 reb. It was a pretty good night for Cap, as he was able to find his groove from the corners, especially early. 11 of Cap's points came in the first half, but he went just 1-3 from deep in the second and was held to nine points after intermission.

Key Stats

• NCC: 1 FG in final 5:30. This time frame came after Matt Cappelletti got a fast break layup to make it 67-64 North Central and force a timeout. At this point, Francis was in and out with four fouls, and the Cardinals just went cold. Some of it was good defense, but some of it was also the Cardinals getting in their own heads a little too much. With Francis on the verge of fouling out, they wanted to go at him, and did on numerous occasions. While there were a couple instances he could have been whistled for his fifth, he wasn't, and other times Cardinals drove on him hoping for a call instead of trying to go strong for a basket. The only field goal in this timespan was a jumper by Connor Raridon with the game out of reach.
• WHE: Outrebounded NCC 44-30. I debated about going with Wheaton's shooting percentages by players not named Aston Francis (11-33 from the field, 4-15 from deep), but his supporting cast hit shots when they needed to and did the more important things well... like rebound. Taking advantage of North Central's lack of a center, they dominated the glass, getting 10 offensive rebounds leading to 10 second chance points. North Central only got four offensive boards, but did get 10 second chance points out of it.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• @ IWU 79 (15-8, 8-6), ELM 76 (12-11, 7-7)
• Due to this game, both Wheaton and North Central are guaranteed a top four seed
• @ AUG 78 (22-2, 14-1), MIL 56 (10-12, 4-10)
• CAR 85 (8-15, 3-11), @ NPU 65 (4-19, 2-12)
• Bye: CRL (10-13, 6-8)

Final Thoughts

A week and a half ago, I was flying high following North Central pulling off the big upset of Augie. They've since come crashing down with back to back home losses to teams they beat on the road. This team, ranked third in the initial Central Region rankings, is going to plummet on Wednesday when the second batch comes out. NCC will have a 2-2 record against RRO's, but that's not going to be good enough I don't think to overcome the fact that they lost twice at home.

This one hurts. Wheaton traveled extremely well, with its own student section complete with the Little Brass Bell as they currently own it, and they erupted with every ridiculous Aston Francis make. I mean... there's nothing more North Central could have done. Francis was just ridiculous, and you have to tip your cap. They earned the win, and it's a big one. I will probably see Francis draining a fadeaway contested three in my nightmares tonight.

The Cardinals close their home schedule with a 9-3 record. It's good, to be sure, but the three they dropped were all disappointing. They close the regular season with a pair of road games: at Carthage on Wednesday and at Elmhurst next Saturday. North Central needs only a single win to lock up the #2 seed, but neither of these games are going to be easy. I'll touch on the full regional ranking implications on Wednesday when those get released, and after the Wednesday games I'll update the seeding scenarios for the CCIW Tournament.

Game Notes: (WBK) Wheaton College @ North Central College (2/9/19)

Final Score
Wheaton 68, NCC 59 (2OT)

Game Summary
This one started well, as the Thunder (20-4, 14-1) grabbed an early lead but weren't able to pull away as the Cardinals (7-16, 5-9) kept pace. Wheaton would only go up four in the first before the Cardinals closed the frame on a 6-0 run. North Central took a 20-16 lead before a Thunder 7-0 run flipped the script again, but then the Cardinals played maybe the best stretch of basketball I've seen from them all year, going on an absurd 16-0 run over the next five plus minutes, taking a 36-25 lead into the break. But the layoff hurt the Cardinals as they went ice cold, missing their first seven shots of the third quarter before finally getting a layup. But despite the cold spell, the Thunder couldn't really take advantage, only cutting the lead to six before said layup, and only managing to get within four by the end of the third quarter. The Thunder finally regrabbed the lead with 6:39 to play, but the Cardinals came back down and tied it the next trip down. Defenses buckled down the rest of the way, with the Thunder scoring on their next possession, but no further, and the Cardinals tied it with two and a half to go. The Cardinals had a chance to take the lead inside of a minute, but a horrific travel call gave the Thunder the ball. Yet the Thunder lost control, North Central recovered with just a couple seconds left, but weren't granted a timeout, giving us free basketball. The Thunder jumped out to a four point lead in the extra session, but the Cardinals weren't done, answering back with five straight to steal a lead, but a short lived one as the Thunder got it right back and pushed it to two with 19 seconds left. But Tyonne Howard hit a clutch basket with eight to play, and the Cardinals survived a couple close looks to force a second overtime. In the second one though, the Thunder enforced their will in the paint and finally pulled away to secure a conference championship.

Key Players

• Hannah Frazier (WHE): 8-22 FG (0-4 3PT), 7-8 FT; 23 pts, 12 reb (1 off), 8 ast, 2 blk, 3 stl. Now that's a stat line. Frazier is probably going to win the Most Outstanding Player award in the CCIW this year, and deservedly so. But the Cardinals did an outstanding job on her, holding her to a 4-15 line at one point before she finally took over late. Even with a struggling shooting night, she still found a way to make an impact.
• Jordan Myroth (WHE): 8-14 FG, 2-4 FT; 18 pts, 11 reb (5 off), 6 ast, 2 blk. Myroth had a ridiculous night as well. She drove baseline a bunch, often times not even going up, but she made shots when she needed to and did a great job finding the open teammate.
• Lyndsay Brennan (NCC): 7-15 FG (1-1 3PT), 0-2 FT; 15 pts, 12 reb (3 off), 3 stl. Brennan was probably the best player on the floor for the Cardinals tonight, but she did most of her damage in the first half, scoring 11 and struggling much of the rest of the way. She did a phenomenal job on the boards though amongst a very tall Wheaton lineup.

Key Stats

• NCC: 2-8 FT (25.0%). I have a lot to say about this topic, but hold that thought. This hurts; you can't shoot this poorly at the line against a team of this caliber. They will make you pay, and they did. The Cardinals didn't get to the line in the first half (again, hold that thought), went 0-4 in the second half, and split the remaining four in the extra sessions. Even one made free throw in the second half avoids all of this. Darn it all.
• WHE: 34 points in the paint. I'd almost argue this should have been higher. Wheaton had a distinct height advantage in this one, and couldn't entirely take advantage. North Central played outstanding defense considering for much of this game, but as time went on Wheaton just went into the post and took advantage of the size mismatch. Tip your cap.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• @ IWU 83 (19-4, 12-2), ELM 62 (9-14, 5-9)
• Illinois Wesleyan clinches the #2 seed in the CCIW Tournament
• @ AUG 62 (13-11, 7-8), MIL 53 (8-15, 4-10)
• Augustana clinches a CCIW Tournament berth
• CAR 63 (15-8, 9-5), @ NPU 51 (8-15, 4-10)
• Carthage clinches the #3 seed in the CCIW Tournament
• Bye: CRL (9-14, 4-10)

Final Thoughts

Okay, you held that thought from above about North Central and free throws? Here it comes. I hate to be that guy... but I think this was the worst officiated game I've ever seen. North Central was whistled for 21 fouls in this game. Considering it was in double overtime, and they were forced to foul late, not terrible. Wheaton, by contrast, was called for seven all game, and just five in regulation. They didn't commit a single foul the entire first quarter, and while I don't recall any specific plays where they missed something in that frame, that's a little alarming. But for that trend to continue throughout the entire game is alarming. Combine that with the aforementioned horrific travel call on Tyonne Howard late in regulation, plus the Cardinals not being granted a timeout in the waning seconds of regulation (though to be fair, it was loud) and you have, again, the worst officiated game I've ever seen. The Cardinals effectively played 5-on-8 all night. I hate to be the guy that makes this complaint, but I firmly believe it after tonight.

Now that said... horrific officiating wasn't the reason the Cardinals lost. They had chances; you can't shoot 24 percent in the second half against a top 25 team and expect to win. Wheaton, for what it's worth, didn't play particularly well tonight either, but they played well enough to lock up a conference title. It's their 21st straight win over North Central, spanning the entire decade. But this was a sign that the Cardinals have the pieces to hang with basically anyone. Whether a healthy Alanna Newsome would have made a difference, I don't know. But this is a game that will to some degree haunt me.

Things don't get any easier for North Central, as they round out their home schedule on Wednesday by welcoming in Illinois Wesleyan. The Cardinals only lost by 5 in Bloomington earlier in the year, then proceeded to rattle off four wins in five tries coming into tonight. They'll need to play with the kind of intensity they did tonight, but also hopefully a better shooting night.

2019 MLB Tournament of Champions: Introduction

It's 2019, which means we need our Tournament of Champions for the year. Also, I can't help myself.

The NBA has had three Tournaments of Champions, including one that incorporated the ABA champions, the NFL just picked up its second, and while the NHL hasn't had any, I don't know that I totally trust my simulator on this one. That leaves Major League Baseball to do its second.

My first foray into the baseball simulator was back in 2017, when I did things the simple way and simply picked one representative from each of the 30 Major League Baseball franchises in the last 50 or so years (just to keep things relatively modern while still giving a couple of old legends opportunities to make a showcase). That tournament brought me joy as the 2016 Chicago Cubs overcame yet another 3-1 deficit in a championship round to win the title. This project is a lot more ambitious.

Game Notes: (MBK) Illinois Wesleyan University @ North Central College (2/6/19)

Final Score
IWU 72, NCC 64

Game Summary
This one started as many games at Gregory Arena are wont to do, as the Cardinals (18-4, 10-3) scored on the opening possession to grab the early lead. But the Titans (14-8, 7-6) followed that up with back to back triples to take control before the game went into seesaw mode. The Cardinals led 18-13 halfway through the frame before the Titans worked their way back. The teams traded leads a few more times before the Cardinals went on a little roll to take a 36-31 lead into the locker room. But this time it was the Titans who came out of the break strong, opening the second half on a 13-2 run and would push their lead as high as seven. The Cardinals hung around though, getting within one with about six minutes to go and back within two with four and a half to play. But a fast break layup pushed it back to four, and after a pair of free throws cut the lead in half again, the Titans got another layup to pretty much put the game away and clinch a CCIW Tournament berth.

Key Players

• Doug Wallen (IWU): 6-11 FG (2-4 3PT); 14 pts, 12 reb (1 off), 1 ast, 1 stl. I don't know if I want to call this a "breakout" game for the sophomore, but considering he came in averaging 6.7 points and 4.0 rebounds per game, it might have been. His shooting stroke seemed a little weird when he fired, but he was effective both inside and out.
• Brady Rose (IWU): 5-13 FG (3-8 3PT), 3-4 FT; 16 pts, 5 reb, 3 ast, 1 stl. The fifth year senior put on a nice show in his final trip to Naperville, hitting that early pair of threes to get the Titans going and set the tone. Chipping in on the glass and distributing the ball helped too.
• Tommy Koth (NCC): 8-15 FG (5-9 3PT), 3-5 FT; 24 pts, 6 reb (2 off), 1 blk, 3 stl. The Legend of Tommy Koth: Titan Killer was nearly extended last night. After he killed the Titans in Bloomington back in January, he had another monster performance despite not getting left wide open by Alex O'Neill on three straight possessions again. He chipped in on defense as well, but fouled out late. Alas.

Key Stats

• NCC: Last field goal with 4:34 remaining. Originally I was going to put North Central's three point shooting down on here, but I feel like I do that every time, and while those percentages (7-24 for the game, 2-13 in the second half) play a role, the fact that North Central managed just two free throws in that four and a half minute span just isn't going to get it done. Credit the Titans for playing good defense.
• IWU: 13-15 FT (86.7%). When these two teams met in Bloomington, the Titans went 16-23 at the stripe in a game where they led by eight with two minutes to play and went on to lose. Last night they made sure it didn't happen with some clutch shots at the stripe late: the team went 12-13 in the second half at the line. Good teams know how to close out, and after some mid season hiccups, the Titans might be finding their stride again.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• @ AUG 93 (21-2, 13-1), WHE 83 (16-7, 9-5)
• Augustana has clinched the #1 seed in the CCIW Tournament
• ELM 91 (12-10, 7-6), @ NPU 64 (4-18, 2-11)
• Elmhurst has clinched a CCIW Tournament berth
• North Park has been eliminated from the CCIW Tournament
• @ CRL 60 (10-13, 6-8), CAR 57 (7-15, 2-11)
• Carthage has been eliminated from the CCIW Tournament
• Bye: MIL (10-11, 4-9)
• WBK: NCC 60 (7-15, 5-8), @ CAR 58 (14-8, 8-5)
• North Central wins at Carthage for the first time since February 11, 2006
• Based on other results, Carthage has clinched a CCIW Tournament berth

Final Thoughts

You might remember from last year's contest that I had my first experience of a player vaulting over the table when Jason Gregoire's momentum from chasing a loose ball brought him between me and SID Clark Teuscher and took out Clark's chair. I went to talk to Jason postgame and jokingly thanked him for not doing so again this year. He responded that he was glad he didn't have to go over. During the game he was pretty fired up, yelling at the table about the officials, but flipped a switch postgame and couldn't have been nicer.

To be fair, Gregoire may have had a point, as both coaches were clearly upset with the officiating. At the halftime buzzer, Ron Rose ran out almost to midcourt to complain, but Todd Raridon was in their ears all night as well. All told, I don't think the crew was too bad, and it clearly didn't impact the outcome. North Central's offense went cold in the final four and a half minutes, and credit the Titans for making enough plays down the stretch to win.

The Cardinals have been playing with fire to some degree for much of the season. They had to come back from down 13 at halftime to beat Elmhurst a few weeks back, needed the aforementioned late rally to beat the Titans in Bloomington, and needed some miraculous shots to beat Millikin down in Decatur. Eventually, regression to the mean was going to hit. It's just unfortunate it had to be last night.

Big picture though, this one hurts. Earlier in the day the Cardinals had been ranked third in the Central region, and to drop a game immediately after that is going to push the Cardinals closer to the bubble. It also gets the Titans better position in the CCIW race, something I'll touch more on next week when there's just a single game left.

The Cardinals have to put this one behind them quick, because Aston Francis and Wheaton are coming to town, and with Senior Night on the docket, emotions will be high for this critical game.

North Central and the NCAA Regional Rankings: Week 1 Edition

With February upon us, we're getting down to the nitty gritty part of the regular season. In the CCIW, just four more nights of play remain on the docket, beginning tonight. And the stakes are raised, because today the first set of NCAA regional rankings were released.

This is a feature I've done for a few years now, basically since the legendary 2014-15 season for the women. But it wasn't until last year that I really took a deep dive into what the regional rankings mean and how they work. For sake of everything in one place though, I'll go into it here before looking at where North Central ranks in this first set.

Every season, the NCAA releases four sets of regional rankings, beginning the first Wednesday in February. Ultimately, the last two are the only ones that matter, but the first few sets are still important. The NCAA has a national selection committee with representation from eight different regions. Those regions each have their own advisory committee with one representative from each conference. Those advisory committees put together these rankings based on a number of factors: winning percentage against D-III opponents, strength of schedule (a combination of opponents' win percentage and opponents' opponents' win percentage), head to head results, common opponent results, and in future rankings, results against regionally ranked opponents.

The relevance comes on selection day. Every conference gets an automatic bid, most of which are decided via conference tournament. Once those bids, plus any "Pool B" bids allocated to teams playing in conferences without an auto bid, everyone enters "Pool C," which are basically the at large bids of the D-I tournament we all know and love. The way these bids are determined is based on regional rankings: take all teams already in the tournament out of the rankings, and take the highest team from each region to give a seat at "the table." The national committee picks the best team out of those eight to put in the tournament, and the next team up from that region gets a seat. The process repeats until all bids have been allocated.

So with that explained, here's where North Central sits in the first set of rankings. I'm also including current CCIW standings.

Super Bowl LIII Predictions and Prop Bets

I'd say it's the most wonderful time of the year... but as I was starting to prep this Naperville was still facing subzero temperatures and wind chills that can only be described as "stupid cold."

But the biggest game in American sports over the course of a calendar year is upon us once again, and that means Adam and I have work to do!

In what has become another annual tradition, we've continued to make football picks into the postseason, and we expand that come Super Bowl Sunday to include some of the prop bets. We touch on a lot of the in-game stuff, of course, but I also like to dabble in some of the specials.

So below, Adam and I will give our Super Bowl picks, and then we will continue on to the prop bets.

Game Notes: (MBK) Augustana College @ North Central College (1/31/19)

Final Score
NCC 68, Augustana 63

Game Summary
Tipping off a day late due to extreme cold, the Cardinals (18-3, 10-2) managed to stay toe to toe with the Vikings (19-2, 11-1), trading the lead a handful of times and tying at eight separate junctures early in this one, the last of which came at 21-all. Then the Vikings went on one of their expected runs, scoring eight straight to go up 29-21 with just over three minutes to play in the first half, but the Cardinals refused to let Augie put them away, managing to pull back with five at 33-28 by halftime. In the second half a switch flipped as a previously cold-shooting Cardinal team started hitting, knocking down threes on three out of four possessions to grab a 37-36 lead before adding another a couple minutes later to take a 42-36 edge. The Cardinals would push their advantage as high as seven at 44-37 and kept it for a few minutes before the Vikings made their critical push. Aided by a Mike Pollack technical foul, the Vikings embarked on a 9-0 run to take a 56-52 edge. Then the Cardinal defense buckled down and held the Vikings off the board for about five minutes, getting a huge transition layup to take a 57-56 lead followed on the ensuing possession by a clutch three. Augie answered with a contested one at the other end to snap their drought and pull back within one, then had a chance to take the lead at the line, but missed the front end of a one-and-one, and the Cardinals made them pay with a dagger three. North Central went 5-6 at the line in the final 37 seconds to seal the upset.

Key Players

• Matt Cappelletti (NCC): 7-9 FG (3-4 3PT), 1-2 FT; 18 pts, 7 reb (3 off), 1 ast, 2 stl. Cap had a clutch night in this one. He was able to get to the basket for a couple easy looks in this one, and was clutch from beyond the arc. He hit two of his threes in the early going of the second half, including the go-ahead one at 37-36. He also delivered the dagger to push the Cardinals' lead back to four with about 48 seconds to go.
• Blaise Meredith (NCC): 7-10 FG (1-1 3PT), 3-8 FT; 18 pts, 2 reb, 2 ast, 2 blk, 2 stl. The free throw numbers leave a lot to be desired, but the Cardinals don't win last night without his efforts. Blaise scored 13 of his points in the first half to keep the Cardinals in the ballgame, and filled the stat sheet in other places. Maybe most importantly, he didn't hit his head on a backboard like the last time these two teams met.
• Pierson Wofford (AUG): 7-11 FG, 1-1 FT; 15 pts, 6 reb (4 off), 3 stl. Wofford missed a significant chunk of last season, and his return helped push this Vikings team to another level. He showed why last night, wreaking havoc with a couple steals near the midcourt line that he took the other way, including for a fast break dunk during the 8-0 run. He hit a couple big shots in the second half, but it just wasn't quite enough.

Key Stats

• NCC: 7-19 3PT (36.8%). I'm giving the whole line, but it really was a tale of two halves. The Cardinals hit just one of nine from deep, just narrowly missing several of those. In the second half, regression to the mean was the Cardinals' friend, as their 6-10 clip was instrumental in the Cardinals pulling the upset.
• AUG: Tied North Central with 32 rebounds apiece. The first time these teams met, Augie outrebounded the Cardinals 38-25, not unexpected given a level of size disparity in the Vikings' favor. But the Cardinals did a good job neutralizing Augie's bigs; their two tallest forwards, Donovan Ferguson (6'9") and Micah Martin (6'11") combined for just five, with Wofford's six leading the game.

Grey Giovanine Jacket Watch

This almost takes precedence over the game itself. If you're new to Confessions of a Sportscaster or CCIW basketball in general, Augustana has distinguished itself as the premier program in the conference. Much of this is credited to Viking coach Grey Giovanine, who is a hell of a coach. He's also kind of a lunatic with a penchant for throwing off his sport coat, prompting this feature, where we track when the jacket comes off.

I ran a pool involving a few people working last night as well as a couple fans I know. We had a nice range of predictions, most of which had the game going a little way's into the first half before it came off. Instead, we were blessed with a string of three straight offensive rebounds, frustrating Giovanine to no end, and after the final one prompted a swift removal and toss to the manager with 14:20 remaining in the first half. Longtime fan Steve Born won the pool with a guess of 14:30 remaining in the first half. If you want to see the removal and toss in all of its glory, you can see it at about 42:15 of the YouTube video (though I'd go back about a minute before that for the full context).

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• @ CRL 77 (8-13, 4-8), WHE 70 (15-6, 8-4), 
• @ IWU 84 (12-8, 5-6), MIL 72 (10-10, 4-8), 
• @ ELM 87 (11-9, 6-5), CAR 80 (7-13, 2-9)
• Bye: NPU (4-16, 2-9)
• WBK: @ MIL 81 (7-13, 3-8), NCC 67 (6-15, 4-8)

Final Thoughts

Photo by Mark Black

I have a lot to unpack out of this one. At some point in the future I'm going to do a ranking of the games I've announced for North Central, and as of right now, this one is the leader in the clubhouse. Augustana came into the game ranked #1 in the country in the D3Hoops poll, and when you factor in the conference race, this was a huge one. Coming into last night, Augie had won every matchup in Merner since I became the full time men's announcer, so to get that monkey off my back was nice.

It's North Central's second ever win over the number one team in the country; the first was a win at Illinois Wesleyan back in 2006. It's also bound to catapault the Cardinals up from #22 in the rankings next week. From a conference standpoint, the other important result broke the Cardinals' way with Carroll upsetting Wheaton. It gives North Central a two game lead for the #2 spot and the bye in the conference, while pulling within a game of Augustana. The remaining schedule does favor the Vikings, but if they lose another one and North Central runs the table, many of the tiebreaker scenarios will favor the Cardinals. The Wheaton rematches for both teams are the key, in my view.

I'm not going to waste too much space here talking about regional rankings, but I'll touch briefly on them. The first set comes out next week, and while this win probably won't have too big of an impact with this first set, it definitely will in the second set.

Finally, I have to say how proud I am of the crowd turnout last night. On a still bitter cold night with classes having been cancelled, a good-sized contingent of students came and packed the west bleachers. Early in the game, I saw someone with a banner of the Augustana logo, except the Viking face was replaced with Crying Jordan. I've never been so proud of a student section, especially since that whole side really came to life in the final 2:30 of the game. I don't think you can discount the impact that had down the stretch. And of course, they stormed the court when the final buzzer sounded. Thankfully no one got hurt, but when you beat the top team in the country, you have to do it.

The Cardinals have their second bye this weekend, then continue their three-game homestand with Illinois Wesleyan coming to town on Wednesday.