COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 9

Hope you had a safe and happy Halloween! I definitely enjoyed getting to take my brother out trick or treating with my fiancee around the neighborhood and getting a good amount of candy from what houses were still giving stuff out.

Meanwhile, yesterday Nathaniel and I put our heads together to pick games going into Week 9 and the other halfway point of the season I guess, given that it's hard to find a halfway mark in a 17 week schedule. We each had decent weeks this past week, though Nathaniel is now in 3rd in the COAS/SSLYAR pool since Mark Murphy has been consistently very good with his picks when he remembers to do them. So without further ado, here's what we're picking for this upcoming week, after ingesting more than our fair share of candy with a certain alpaca and watching Family Guy and Pirates of the Caribbean.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-8.5)

Lucas: Chiefs. We should turn this game into Bill Simmons’ idea for Botched. Norv Turner vs. Romeo Crennel. This can’t fail.

Nathaniel: Chiefs. Were Romeo Crennel to fight a giant chicken to the death, I'm fairly certain he would greet the chicken warmly, ask the chicken how it liked that one brunch with Bill Belichick they all had together back in 2004, and then express surprise and confusion when the chicken began to rip his head off with its claws. All this to say: you've fallen a long way, San Diego, when I don't think you can cover an 8.5 point spread against the Chiefs.

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5)

Lucas: Broncos. This Cincy team isn’t what it was last year and Peyton Manning is starting to figure everything out again. Watch out for Denver in the 2nd half.

Nathaniel: Broncos. It's been delightful to watch Peyton play at his finest level in six or seven years, particularly when he's throwing so many flutter balls in doing so. One of the touchdown passes he threw on Sunday Night ended up tumbling end over end (largely because it was tipped, but still). I'm hoping at some point this year he'll try to whip the thing like a frisbee (the football, not his...never mind) and get a boomerang-like curve on a seven-yard out to Eric Decker. After what he's pulled off so far this year, you can't put anything past him.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+3.5)

Lucas: Ravens. I would like to assume this won’t be another one of those 9-6 defensive struggles/offensive crapfests. I mean, Joe Flacco and Ray Rice are still playing (barring something happening in the next couple days). They should be able to score enough, right?
Nathaniel: Ravens. On the one hand, the Ravens have been horrendous on the road and Reliant Stadium groundskeeping is still cleaning up all the epic diarrhea Joe Flacco left on the field two weeks ago. On the other hand...the Browns.

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-10.5)

Lucas: Packers. I made the mistake last week of taking Green Bay as a two-score favorite. Presented with the same scenario again, combined with Nathaniel’s commentary about commentary about Patrick Peterson being overrated, plus hopefully having Jordy Nelson back… Rodgers should be back on track.
Nathaniel: Cardinals. Have no idea whether Green Bay cares enough to play at their best this Sunday or play well enough to win by seven or eight. Thus, as one would expect when the quarterback matchup is John Skelton vs. Aaron Rodgers, I'm taking the Cardinals.

Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans (+3.5)

Lucas: Bears. Make sure someone tells Matt Hasselbeck not to talk about wanting the ball and proceeding to score at the coin toss. If Tim Jennings is back to his usual hijinx again, he should do the Al Harris finger gesture as he takes it back to the house.

Nathaniel: Bears. Unlike last Sunday, I assume the Bears will know the game starts at noon this week.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)

Lucas: Dolphins. Do we seriously live in a world where Miami is in 2nd in the AFC East? I mean, it’s not that hard when you share a division with the Jets and the Bills, but still…
Nathaniel: Colts. Who saw this one being a hugely important game in the AFC Wild-Card chase? I look forward to picking against the winner of this game in the first round of the playoffs.

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins (-3.5)

Lucas: Redskins. In a battle of athletic, dynamic quarterbacks, the young gun outduels the sophomore. Warren Moon, can we compare these 2 guys without being racist?
Nathaniel: Panthers. Look, at some point the Panthers have to pull out one of these close games. It may not happen until 2013 and Chip Kelly is their coach, but I promise you, it will happen.

Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)

Lucas: Lions. By which I mean, the Lions will play like crap for 3 quarters before Matthew Stafford suddenly becomes competent. Maybe someone should put up a fake score on the board whenever Stafford looks at it to show his team down 2 scores in the 4th so the Lions go into insane offense mode.

Nathaniel: Lions. Odds of Blaine Gabbert having two half-decent games in a row vs. odds that Mayor McCheese is elected mayor of Portland, Oregon: discuss.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-10.5)

Lucas: Texans. Fresh off a bye, Buffalo’s defense probably doesn’t get any better before they get killed at Reliant.

Nathaniel: Texans. I know that the underdog in these double-digit spreads has covered virtually every time this year, but...I mean...IT'S THE BILLS DEFENSE FOR CRYING OUT LOUD. Gah, I hate huge spreads.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders (-1.5)

Lucas: Raiders. I’ll take the fresher team in a low point situation.

Nathaniel: Buccaneers. It would seem fitting in this Battle of the Swashbucklers that we take a moment to think about who the greatest pirate of all time (GPOAT) was. Now, a cursory Google search leads me to believe it was probably Blackbeard, but I certainly wouldn't disagree if some among you wanted to go with Barbarossa or Henry Morgan (as long as you weren't basing it completely on his rum).

Lucas Note: I'd like to put Jack Sparrow in the discussion... also as long as we're not basing it completely on rum.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)

Lucas: Seahawks. A team coming back down to earth against a tough defense playing in the toughest environment in the league? Yes please.

Nathaniel: Seahawks. Too busy gorging face with Halloween candy to properly explain pick, must finish typing out picks before sugar high puts me in diabetic coma (ARNIE).

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-3.5)

Lucas: Giants. As punishment for wearing those god-awful bee jerseys last week, the Steelers will get torched by Eli going 95 yards in the final 52 seconds to win by 4. Or get blown out. Either or.

Nathaniel: Giants. Hopefully the Giants win this one so all the people affected by Hurricane Sandy have something to get excited about for a little while. And also so that the Steelers suffer a horrible, ignominious defeat that causes them to choke on their terrible Bumblebee throwback uniforms. Gah, I hate the Steelers.

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)

Lucas: Falcons. I still think Atlanta is overrated despite their unbeaten record. They just won’t fall against a bad coach like Jason Garrett.

Nathaniel: Cowboys. Look, whenever a hilarious underachiever goes up against an annoying-as-hell overachiever, you have to pick the underachiever every time. Just go with me on this, I've only got three more minutes to live before my brain turns into one, sludgy mess made out of Twix.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

Lucas: Eagles. Andy Reid will save his job for at least one more week, if only because this game is probably going to be a shootout and I trust Philly’s defense more than I trust New Orleans’ defense. The Saints might as well put some jambalaya or gumbo or something out at safety; it might slow the Eagle receivers down a little better than the current secondary does.

Nathaniel: Eagles. Why...why hello there, Andy Reid. When did you turn into a giant white chocolate bar with a walrus moustache? What's that? You want me to eat you? All right, you're the -hklrhgdj5btslrdgn9430ngrslidfp4durrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

/diabetic coma.

...Well, hopefully we'll get Nathaniel back for next week's picks. I think we're counting Arnie for the Seahawks pick as well, so hopefully he can even his record up. This, of course, assuming he also doesn't go into a diabetic coma again.

Records so far:

Lucas: 59-59 (7-7 last week)

Nathaniel: 51-67 (7-7 last week)

Arnie: 0-1

Express NBA Preview

This is a winter where I'm not really looking forward to professional sports, given that Gary Bettman's head is still not on a platter for all NHL fans to see and Derrick Rose is still rehabbing his knee. But with the NBA set to start tonight, I figured I'd set out on a quick NBA preview.

I'm going to make this a fairly quick one that will hopefully be more correct that my World Series prediction (which ended before I could really even begin it). I'll go over teams that I think can contend with reasons for why they can win the title versus why they can't.


Eastern Conference
 
Miami Heat
Last Year: 46-20, won NBA Championship
Why they can win: LeBron James is the best player in the league and is in his prime. He knows now how to win a title. Adding Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis made them even better than last year.
Why they can't win: With a healthy Wade, will he and LeBron go back to the alternating alpha dog formula that failed them up until last year's playoffs?

Boston Celtics
Last Year: 39-27, lost in Eastern Conference Finals
Why they can win: Despite Allen's defection, Pierce, KG and Rondo know how to win a title. Jeff Green is healthy, Jason Terry came aboard (Irrational Confidence guys can be huge), and this could be an Keyser Soze kind of team. I'm sure Bill Simmons would agree (yes, I know he's a Celtics fan, but still. The man knows basketball.)
Why they can't win: To an extent, this is Year 6 of a 3 year plan with KG and Pierce. Will Terry be able to fill Ray Ray's shoes? Did the layoff hurt Jeff Green? Do they have the athleticism to get past Miami? We'll get a taste tonight.

Indiana Pacers
Last Year: 42-24, lost in Eastern Conference Semifinals
Why they can win: Scrappy team that plays like a team. Good defense, everyone knows their role, they've been there before.
Why they can't win: Who's the alpha dog on this team? Who do you go to when you need a crucial hoop late in the game?

Chicago Bulls
Last Year: 50-16, lost in Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Why they can win: A retooled Bench Mob looks decent, the core of the team remains intact still, and this team should be in the mix until spring when some point guard from Memphis is cleared to return from a knee injury. 
Why they can't win: Odds are said point guard won't quite be himself when he comes back. The onus is still on guys like Hamilton or Boozer to emerge as that other consistent scorer to take away some of the burden. It's not time quite yet. See Geoffy's blog post for a more in-depth Bulls preview.

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder
Last Year: 47-19, lost in NBA Finals
Why they can win: They play a good brand of basketball and already have some playoff chops. Also, Kevin Durant is amazing.
Why they can't win: Which Russell Westbrook will show up this year? The other obvious problem that showed up last minute is the sudden trade of James Harden. Yes, OKC got some decent pieces back for him rather than let him walk at the end of the year, but the core that got them to the Finals last year is broken up. Who will take on the 2nd unit scoring load Harden did, or bring the ball up for them?

Los Angeles Lakers
Last Year: 41-25, lost in Western Conference Semifinals
Why they can win: Holy crap, that starting five. Dwight Howard joins a long lineage of great Laker centers, they have an old but still plenty capable point guard in Steve Nash, and that Kobe guy is still around.
Why they can't win: Your two best bench guys are Steve Blake and probably Devin Ebanks unless Antwan Jamison still has something left in the tank. Kobe's health is a question mark going in, and with his age, how long can he remain at a high level?

San Antonio Spurs
Last Year: 50-16, lost in Western Conference Finals
Why they can win: Playoff experience matters, and these guys have it. Tim Duncan is a consummate professional and knows how to win. They return a decent core.
Why they can't win: I'm just going to let this box score from last year speak for itself.

These are probably the 7 teams best equipped for a deep postseason run. the Knicks have health issues with Amare and that team construct just doesn't work, as we've seen the last 2 postseasons. Brooklyn is all hype. Atlanta is the sports town that sees regular season success followed up with disappointment in the playoffs. The Clippers don't really have the makeup of a championship team/have too many guys/are coached by Vinny Del Negro. Memphis' window is closing and Denver's is only now starting to open. I could be totally wrong, but right now I'm probably looking at a Miami-OKC rematch in the Finals again. And hopefully this time, the Thunder can last a little longer.