COAS Hands Out 2014 NFL Awards

256 games are in the books. 32 teams have been narrowed down to 12. In about a month, only one team will remain to stake the claim as best in the NFL. But before we can do any of that, we need to hand out some hardware.

I've had some reasonable success in handing out awards compared to the official results in prior years, though defense is always tough. You can view my picks from 2013 and 2012 at the links provided.

In my work for UKEndzone, I've also been handing out awards at each of the quarter polls in 2014. The first, second, and third quarter awards have only applied to players in the NFC North, as that has been my assigned division, but some of those players will receive votes in these awards as well. Those posts also have some "anti-awards", as it were, primarily to pick on the dumpster fire that is the Chicago Bears franchise. When the awards for the year in the division go live, I will link to it here.

For now, here are my league-wide picks for the major NFL awards.

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Quarterfinals

Hope you all had a Merry Christmas! I'm back to the grind with some football.

The opening round of the Death to the BCS Playoffs went as expected, for the most part. The top five seeds all advanced, and three lower seeds pulled off the upsets to advance. They all have to go on the road for a second straight week, while the four teams that made the College Football Playoff all get their second straight home game.

So far, I'm actually pretty happy with how things have turned out. In reality, Memphis played poorly but managed a late rally to win in double overtime against BYU before an ugly brawl broke out. They couldn't capitalize on early FSU mistakes in the first round and lost 30-6. Meanwhile, Marshall blew out NIU in Boca Raton, which lends credence to Marshall making it interesting at Ohio State while the Huskies got blown out by Oregon.

Like the first round, this will be a best-of-three simulation in a bit of an effort to minimize luck. Weather conditions around the time of kickoff will be taken into account courtesy of weather.com to make the simulations more accurate. To ensure that any injured players don't impact the proceedings, I check on player statuses from Don Best's handicapping website. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's set up the Final Four.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 17

We've made it to the final week. And somehow, some way... I'm still hanging on.

Adam and I saw the greatest example of groupthink in quite a while last week, and we split the four games we did disagree on. With that split, I hold on to my one game lead with sixteen left to play. However, overall Grabbing the Bull Horns blogger Geoffrey Clark maintains his lead despite a 3-13 week.

The way the Pick 'Em works is that Adam and I each do our picks separately once they go live at 2pm every Tuesday, but he sends his to me to put into the system. With this kind of "home field" advantage, if I really wanted to I could just replicate all of Adam's picks and coast to victory, but what kind of victory would that be? I'm doing this the honorable way and making my picks as I normally would. And if I fall... I fall.

Adam does have a lot to play for this week: if he finishes with more correct picks for the season than me, he gets a guest post here on COAS on any topic he chooses. I don't really get anything if I win, other than maintaining the sanctity of COAS from the prying words of Bears fans.

In this final round, Adam and I disagree on four of the 16 games. This rules out a tie, and means with a split of the games, I win for the season. If Adam wins the week, he wins the season. Good luck to you, sir.

From all of us here at Confessions of a Sportscaster, have a very Merry Christmas! Let's begin!

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: First Round

We took a couple weeks to allow for final exams, a week of physical rest, and all that jazz. Now, it's time to decide a champion on the field. Or at least, a champion on a simulated computer program since that's the closest we can get to having an actual champion (though this year's championship formula is better than the BCS).

Yesterday was the scheduled day for the opening round of the playoffs, played on campuses from Tuscaloosa to Eugene; Waco to Columbus. Ten conference champions and six fortunate at-large teams got to battle it out for a shot at a national title. After yesterday, only half remain.

In case you aren't familiar with how the Death to the BCS Playoffs work, I'm running this like I have the past couple years. Higher seeds host all the games this weekend, and I am taking weather into account from official conditions in the host cities around kickoff time. Weather data is taken from weather.com. I also take injury reports from Don Best's handicapping website to make sure that injured players don't impact the outcome (as best as I can, anyway). From there, I simulate each matchup as a best-of-three in an effort to get a more accurate picture of who would win that matchup and eliminate luck as a larger factor. The "clinching" game will be the official result for the purposes of the tournament. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play some playoff football!

Game Notes: University of Dubuque @ North Central College (12/19/14)

Final Score
NCC 110, Dubuque 93

Game Summary
After a long road trip, including a couple games in California, the Cardinals (10-0) came back home and struggled early as the Spartans (4-4) opened with a 10-3 run. The Cardinals would work their way back from a deficit as big as 11 to take a brief 38-37 lead answered by a Dubuque 7-0 run. North Central closed the gap, and trailed 51-50 at the half. The Spartans were able to keep pace for a few minutes in the second half, but saw a 66-62 lead vanish in a 20-2 Cardinal run. The Cardinals would lead by no fewer than eight the rest of the way.

Key Stats

• Tess Godhardt (NCC): 6-12 FG, 11-12 FT; 23 pts, 13 reb (9 off), 3 stl. Tess was a major part of the comeback effort in the second half, as she was able to find room inside against a tiring defense. She also dominated at the foul line, which continues to be a great sign for this team.
• Anita Sterling (NCC): 4-9 FG (0-4 3PT), 1-1 FT; 9 pts, 8 reb (4 off), 1 ast, 2 stl, 1 blk. Anita had a great floor game all around (see more below). She was able to find room down low, including a three point play, and played great defense. She's definitely improved from last year.
• Dubuque 3PT: 11-26 (42.3%). This is mainly what kept the Spartans in the game, especially in the first half. They shot 7-10 in the opening stanza (Meggie Schmidt was 3-4 and Jenna Kotas 3-5) before regression to the mean hit, and hit hard. I called it at halftime: 70 percent from three is unsustainable. Their 25 percent clip in the second half proves that.

North Central System Watch

• Dubuque Turnovers: 29. Many of these were errant passes, plus a few travels. NCC came away with 17 steals, led by Maryssa Cladis' four. 
• NCC 3PT: 19-75 (25.3%). The Cardinals didn't start great, missing their first few threes, but they started to fall as the game went along. The 20-2 run included a few threes, but not a ton. Many shots ended up short.
• NCC Charges Drawn: 3. Anita Sterling drew a pair a few minutes in on consecutive possessions, completely changing the tone of Dubuque's attack. Tess Godhardt also picked one up towards the end of the game.

Final Thoughts
I maintain that "Nobody Believes in Us" is a powerful force. With today's win, NCC has won a program high ten games to start the season, and this was a good win. After struggling early, they settled in and Dubuque's threes stopped falling. Simply put, Dubuque got worn out, something that seems to happen in this system.

North Central is off next week, then closes out the non conference schedule at Eureka on the 30th. Illinois Wesleyan awaits the start of CCIW play in two weeks. 

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 16

We're down to the final two weeks of the regular season and HOLY CRAP, ADAM, WHERE DID YOU COME FROM?!

My lead that I've held pretty firmly since about Week 3 or 4 is all but gone. Just a single game separates us now, and Grabbing the Bull Horns' Geoffrey Clark has all but locked up winning the group this year. But for the love of all that is holy, I need to turn this nonsense around, fast.

Somehow, I still have a shot at finishing at least .500, which would be good, but I'll be fine finishing short of that if it means beating Adam, who took six of the eight disputed games last week to make this a photo finish.

There are a couple Saturday games this week in the NFL ranks since the college ranks are off this week even though the Death to the BCS Playoffs will kick off on Saturday. It's not too late to get your predictions for the tournament in. You can sign up for a free account on bracketmaker.com and make your predictions here. Sunday morning I'll try to run through the results from Round 1.

Meanwhile, in the NFL ranks, we finally get some groupthink! Adam and I only disagree on four of this week's 16 games. This will end up putting a lot of the pressure on Week 17. But that's next week. Let's get to the Week 16 picks.

Flying Under the Radar

We're a few weeks into the college basketball season now. The really good teams are starting to separate themselves from the pack. But what about a women's team that plays in Naperville that has had little history to hang its hat on save a national title in 1983?

The North Central women's basketball team is off to a historic start in 2014-15, and close out a five game road trip tonight at Monmouth. After a pair of 7-4 starts to the last two seasons, this team is off to a program-best 8-0 start with three games to go before CCIW play begins.

This is Year Three of Michelle Roof implementing a Grinnell-style system at North Central. After a decent Year One saw the team sneak into the CCIW Tournament, most numbers improved in Year Two except for the win total. So far, Year Three has been excellent. Through eight games, the Cardinals are averaging over 100 points per game. Three point shooting so far is back down around Year One levels (26.3 percent), but individual players are having monster years, most notably Miranda Grizaffi (10.8 PPG, 43.8 percent from beyond the arc). The major difference from the last two years has been the inside presence.

The last two years saw Larynn Shumaker show off impressive footwork to beat interior defenders and get some tough points. Shumaker is not with the team this year, and a couple players have almost made some people forget about her. The big landing in the offseason was the transfer of Naperville native Jamie Cuny from D-II's University of Illinois-Springfield. Coach Roof raved about her before I got to see any action, and she hasn't disappointed through eight games. While she hasn't been a major offensive force (8.4 PPG on 30% shooting), the 6'2" forward is a force of nature inside. Coming into the season, the school's single season record for blocked shots was 52, set by Lindsey Feris back in 1997-98. Cuny is already fifth through just eight games. Granted, more than half of those have come in two games where she broke the school's record for blocks (she had eight to help give NCC its first Tip Off Tournament title since 2008, then had ten to notch the program's first ever triple double in the win over Carroll last week), but her mere presence in the paint has been enough to change the scope of games.

They've needed a go-to scorer though, and one has emerged in senior Tess Godhardt. Godhardt transferred from Elmhurst last year, but by CCIW rules was only allowed to play in the final four games of the season. Other than helping lead the Cardinals to their first win at Illinois Wesleyan for the first time since 2006, she didn't have much impact last season. In her first full season as a Cardinal, she's been incredible, leading the team in scoring (18.4 PPG), including dropping a school-record 40 points in that Millsaps win (a performance which earned her Tip Off Tournament MVP honors). Maybe the juju from her pair of state titles at Hinckley-Big Rock are rubbing off on this team.

Post by North Central College Athletics.

All of this success so far... and yet, there's been no national recognition for this team. I didn't expect there to be a lot of preseason hype outside the halls of Merner Field and the confines of Confessions of a Sportscaster (and the latter only because I am an unabashed homer), so I don't fault whoever the voters for the D3hoops.com Top 25 are. Then randomly, North Central picked up some voter recognition in the Week 2 poll. Last week they fell off completely, and they remain off every ballot this week. Apparently the fact that this is the last undefeated team in the CCIW means nothing to people.

So that NCC women's team that got no votes for the Top 25? 8-0. Only undefeated team left in the CCIW. #NobodyBelievesInUs
— Lucas Mitzel (@northsider89) December 11, 2014

Initially, I was mad last week that there were no votes. Then I thought about it a little bit. "Nobody Believes in Us" is a powerful force. This year's team is a team that is scoring at a similar, if not better, clip than the past two editions. On top of that, they're finding ways to close out tight games, and they aren't letting deficits keep them down. Sure, there are CCIW teams that scare me: Wheaton is ranked #14 in the country and has thrived so far against the system. North Park is a team on the rise, and Illinois Wesleyan is always a tough battle. But this team has the makings to not only survive the gauntlet, but thrive in it. And right now, people aren't talking about this team. This system was disrespected by the Carroll play by play team last week during the game, a system that beat their team. It's giving this Cardinal team a chip on their shoulder. I like it. It's part of what's gotten them to 8-0 so far. Hopefully, they'll take care of business tonight at Monmouth and come home Friday night for me to go back to yelling "THREEEEEEEEEEEEE!" en route to another victory and a notice to the CCIW:

Nobody believes in us. But we're coming for you.