Game Notes: University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire @ North Central College(11/29/14)

Final Score

NCC 101, UWEC 89

Game Summary

Things started fairly well for the Cardinals (4-0), who were able to combine the inside and outside game to take an early 7-4 lead. Then the Blugolds (3-3) went on a long run to go up 16-7. North Central worked its way back from there, often closing the gap to two or even one before the Blugolds would reestablish control, taking a 42-38 lead into the break. The Blugolds came out very strong in the second half and within about five minutes were padding the lead while the Cardinals panicked, allowing 17 unanswered points to go up 64-45. A timeout by Eau Claire stopped the bleeding and allowed North Central to gather itself for a comeback and slowly ate into the deficit before taking an 85-84 lead with about five minutes to go. Timely threes and good free throw shooting sealed the deal. 

Key Stats

• NCC Free Throws: 19-24 (79.2%). What has been a weakness in years past has become a strength, at least through four games. This helped keep them in the game when things were dire and helped to put the game away when the comeback was complete.
• Tess Godhardt (NCC): 13-20 FG (0-1 3PT), 8-10 FT; 34 pts, 3 reb (1 off). After slacking off on Wednesday (kidding, but 10 points is her season low), she had a monster performance today. She was a monster in the low post, terrorizing the Blugolds defense and keeping things even until the Blugold run, then keying the comeback. She's now averaging 24.5 points through four games this year.
• Courtney Lewis (UWEC): 7-11 FG, 3-3 FT; 17 pts, 11 reb (1 off),10 ast, 1 stl. I didn't realize until I looked at the box score that Lewis had a triple-double, the second opponent to pick one up against the Cardinals. She was a threat primarily in the first half, though she did also score some during the 17-0 run.

NCC System Watch

• UWEC Turnovers: 24. Eau Claire only had nine at halftime (as did NCC), but they started to come apart during NCC's comeback. The Cardinals finished the day with 12 steals, led by Bobbi Johns' four. 
• NCC 3PT: 10-42 (23.8%). The attempts are way down from the Tip Off Tournament, but the percentages still need to go up a bit. Maryssa Cladis had the best numbers of anyone (3-4). Even so, the threes they did hit were well timed ones. 
• NCC Charges Drawn: 2. I didn't catch who it was, but the Cardinals did draw one in the first half. They also picked one up during the second half comeback, but I wasn't in position to see who drew that one either. Hopefully Coach Roof has been keeping track. 

Final Thoughts

After the double overtime game last weekend, this was a much less stressful encounter, despite the huge deficit. It was much less taxing on my voice, even though as the comeback was taking place I was getting excited. These girls deserve credit for not giving up today. They did the hard work. I just did all I could to turn the tide.

The Cardinals hit the road for most of the rest of December, including the next two in California. They'll be back home on the 19th.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 13

Are we really already to Thanksgiving? Wow.

All the bye weeks are concluded at this point, so we're picking 16 games each of the next five weeks. We may need it; we've been struggling.

Last week had some weather changes happen, as the Bills-Jets game in Buffalo had to be moved to Detroit. I made a change to my original pick there as the line dropped a couple points, and I opted to go with the Jets... only to have that come back to bite me. It also evened out the results between Adam and I for the week. Instead of the seven disagreements on games, we jumped up to eight, and split them evenly. It was sub-.500 weeks for both of us again. I remain above .500 overall, but I need to turn the ship around. So does Adam; he remains 13 games back with five weeks to go.

I think somewhere along the line, I miscounted loss totals, while keeping the win totals intact. Those are correct, and I've added two losses to both my and Adam's records. This still factors in the three games Adam called correctly on COAS but either had the wrong team or forgot to pick on ESPN. While I'm not sure where the missed count started, it's now fixed; there are 176 games on our records with 80 to go (16 over each of the five weeks). We're good now.

So as my Thanksgiving gift to you all, here are our picks against the spread for Week 13. This week, Adam and I disagree on seven of the 16 games.

Game Notes: Aurora University @ North Central College (11/25/14)

Final Score
NCC 67, Aurora 63

Game Summary
This was a chippy game from the outset, as both defenses stepped up from the tip. The Spartans (2-2) had control for the first four minutes until the Cardinals (3-0) started to heat up. Aurora maintained its lead for a while then started swapping leads a couple times. Foul trouble started to catch up to them though and Cardinal threes started to fall. NCC built its lead until they were up 44-25 at the break. Momentum completely turned around in the second half; while the Cardinals were able to maintain their 19 point lead for a while, the Spartans went on a 15-0 run to narrow the gap to four with about two minutes left.

Key Stats

• Jayme Moten (NCC): 7-11 FG (5-8 3PT), 1-1 FT; 20 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast, 1 stl. Jamie caught fire in the first half, going 4-6 from beyond the arc and 5-7 overall. His two-pointer was an absolutely gorgeous layup where he subtly slowed down to draw contact and had the strength to bank it home. It was incredible.
• Charles Rosenberg (NCC): 5-13 FG (0-2 3PT), 1-2 FT; 11 pts, 12 reb (1 off), 6 ast, 2 stl. Rosenberg managed one point on a free throw in the first half before trying to take over in the second half. In the early stages, he did before the collapse started happening.
• Brandon Smith (AUR): 11-19 FG (5-9 3PT), 3-4 FT; 30 pts, 2 reb (1 off), 1 ast. Smith pretty much singlehandedly keyed the Aurora comeback in the second half. I had a couple fans behind me asking what he finished with on my way out, that's how good he was. He almost keyed a comeback win, but the Cardinals held on.

Final Thoughts
This was a very chippy game. I know I said that in the summary, but it needs mentioning twice. There was a lot of physical play, and some ticky tack stuff was called. The Cardinals also got away with a couple flops in the first half. It got to the point that Aurora coach James Lancaster pulled a Grey Giovanine and took off his jacket angrily during a time out. The tables turned a bit in the second. Aurora got away with a foul that shouldn't have been called, but it evened thigs out a bit.

NCC now hits the road for eight straight to close out the non-conference slate. The women have a couple more home games before CCIW play yet, starting on Saturday.

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 14

I missed one MAC game last night. It won't impact the numbers I'm running today, but I need to make sure I get this taken care of.

For a majoring of the FBS conferences, this is the final week of the regular season. Next week has most of the conference championship games, plus final games for the other conferences. This week will probably be the final week that I do anything with NCSS, though I'll probably take a token look next week.

This week's action is bound to be better than last week's, if for no other reason than the SEC are done being cowards. I'm pretty sure we're done with this playing cupcake nonsense, at least until August.

Let's take a look at the non-conference matchups this weekend.

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 13 Edition

My weekend has officially begun! As my gift to you: bracket time.

Some chaos ensued this weekend, though there wasn't a lot in the college ranks. Even so, I need to update the numbers and check to see who would make the playoffs.

Differing from the College Football Playoff, whose rankings have been somewhat consistent with those on here, the Death to the BCS Playoffs is a 16-team playoff made up of the ten conference champions and filled out with six at-large teams. So how do we decide these teams? With metrics.

To loosely figure out how well teams are scheduling games out of conference, I use Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) as one metric. The higher the number, the "tougher" the schedule was (basically, more road games and/or "Power" conference opponents are good). The more useful self-designed metric I use are First and Second Degree Playoff Points (PP1 and PP2), which shows how good each team was, and how good the teams they beat are. Then, because I don't want to monopolize the rankings myself, I use a pair of margin-of-victory-included computer rankings developed by the late David Rothman (ROTH) and Jeff Sagarin (SAG).

If you want to refer back to last week's rankings, you can view them here. Let's update the numbers.

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 13

Happy Tuesday! I hope you all had a good weekend. I'm back to take a look at college football because my voice needs a break. Double overtime games are brutal to announce, but when your team wins? All is good.

Anyway, now we come back to the gridiron. At this point, a lot of the division races are wrapped up, though there are some major games still left to be played this coming weekend. That comes tomorrow when I look at the NCSS rankings.

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee had some interesting decisions last week, and to some degree we agreed, but not entirely. That may change with the Death to the BCS Playoff seedings that will come out later today just ahead of the new committee rankings. So with this week's games shifting some of the NCSS numbers around a bit, will Playoff Points change?

If you are unfamiliar with how this metric works, you can view a summary on Playoff Points here. Let's look at the data.

Game Notes: Bluffton University @ North Central College (11/22/14)

Final Score
NCC 77, Bluffton 61

Game Summary
The Cardinals (2-0) struggled a bit at the outset from the Beavers' (1-3) inside game, but NCC was able to respond and control most of the half, leading 33-26 at the break. NCC came out guns blazing in the second half and opened up a double digit lead. Bluffton never really threatened and NCC walked away victorious.

Key Stats

• Charles Rosenberg (NCC): 7-18 (0-2 3PT), 9-12 FT; 23 pts, 6 reb (1 off), 5 ast. It's good to have him back this year. After leading the team in scoring on Friday, Rosenberg did so again on Saturday. He didn't shoot well from the floor, but he took advantage of his chances at the line, something he'll need to do once we hit CCIW play.
• Kevin Honn (NCC): 5-7 FG (4-5 3PT), 4-5 FT; 18 pts, 6 reb, 3 ast, 2 stl. The Downers Grove native was a key player when I previewed the season, and he lived up to expectations last night. He shot pretty well from three last year and is off to a good start this year, as well as being an inside presence for rebounds. They'll need him if Rosenberg or Jack Burchett get into foul trouble. 
• Thayne Recker (BLF): 9-10 FG, 6-8 FT; 24 pts, 5 reb (3 off). I think Bluffton's season lives and dies with this guy. He did a ton of damage against Whitewater on Friday, and was a problem early for the Cardinals too. Very dominant post player.

Early Game Notes
Wisconsin-Whitewater 95, Trinity International 72. Whitewater let the threes fly early and took a strong early lead, but the Trojans stayed with it for most of the first half. It wasn't until the last couple minutes of halftime that the Warhawks began to pull away, leading 47-32 at the break. The second half really wasn't close, and the Warhawks were able to call off the dogs very late in the contest.

Tournament Awards

All-Tournament Team
Justin Peeples (TIU)

Quardell Young (UWW)

Drew Bryson (UWW)

Thayne Recker (BLF)

Jack Burchett (NCC)

Tournament MVP
Charles Rosenberg (NCC)

Final Thoughts
The Cardinals looked much better tonight compared to yesterday. Even so, Bluffton kept it fairly close for much of the early part of the game. NCC was able to put it away late and looked good doing so. They'll be back on Tuesday to take on rival Aurora University at 7:00.