Overanalyzing the NBA Finals

Photo from the @spurs Twitter account

I didn't pay a ton of attention to the NBA this season compared to the NFL or the NHL. I followed the Bulls to some extent, and was, like a majority of people outside the Miami area, rooting for anyone but the Heat to win the title. So when I turned on ESPN on my way home last night to listen to Game 5, I was pleased to hear that the San Antonio Spurs were dominating the Miami Heat en route to their fifth title in 15 years. I of course had to watch the end of it. Even though I didn't see much of the series, the parts I did were just beautiful basketball.

I'm on the record here as hating the Miami Heat. I do. I respect the talent on that team, especially LeBron. But I hate the collusion that took place to build that core. I hate the arrogance they displayed once assembled. I don't like that LeBron rarely gets called for traveling despite traveling on a semiregular basis. I hate that he and Dwyane Wade flop. I hate that the two of them whine like there's no tomorrow. I don't have as big a problem with LeBron as a I do with Wade, but that combination... I hate the Heat. So I was thrilled with how the Finals turned out. If that makes me a "hater", so be it. I'm not ashamed of it.

Photo from Reuters

So what does this mean for various legacies among these two teams? For the Spurs, I'd argue that it makes them the best franchise in the post-Jordan era (it's either them or the Lakers). A lot of knowledgeable basketball fans already had him here, but he's cemented his place as the best power forward of all time. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili become arguably the best players from France and Argentina, respectively, and are in the conversation for best foreign-born player. And with the youth on this team, even if Duncan were to retire, this team still has a pretty solid core around to reload. They've kept proving people who call them too old or too boring wrong for years now. And they put on one of the best performances in the history of the NBA Finals to win their fifth title.

On the other side, a lot of people are, whether you think it's fair or not, blaming LeBron for the loss. Honestly... I can't do it. Let's look at the numbers:

• LeBron James: 28.2 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 4.0 apg, 2.0 spg, 0.4 bpg; 57% FG/52% 3PT/79% FT (while he falls just short of Bill Simmons' "42 Club", can you really complain about these numbers? This doesn't account for the cramps in Game 1 or his leaving for good with about 6:30 left last night, but I can't really blame him for those either. Especially when you consider...)
• Dwyane Wade: 15.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.6 spg, 0.0 bpg; 44% FG/33 % 3PT/69% FT (as I was compiling these stats... they aren't horrible, but for someone who's supposed to be a "superstar", it's not good, especially when you see how much he fell off the table in the final two games.)
• Chris Bosh: 14.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.0 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.2 bpg; 55% FG/38% 3PT/82% FT (Again, he did almost nothing here, though his shooting numbers aren't terrible. He had minimal shots in Game 3, and other games he was so-so.)

Photo from Andy Lions (NBAE/Getty Images)

One of the big takeaways is that LeBron did pretty much all he could, he just got no help from his supporting cast. The troll in me would like to point out that Game 6 of the '98 Finals was pretty much singlehandedly won by MJ as a counterpoint, but I'm not sure how apt that comparison is. Ultimately though, this year's Finals reminded us what it takes to win an NBA championship, and it's something I tackled in the NBA Tournament of Champions I ran last summer. The Spurs are the essence of a team, and they proved it throughout this series. It's arguably one of the most one-sided Finals in history, especially in recent memory.

It also means that the Heat need to go back to the drawing board, and maybe try to add a couple role players to help out. LeBron can't do it himself. Either way, I considered last night a victory for not only San Antonio, *puts on "hater" hat*, but for America and the good of basketball everywhere. To me, this series was a restoration of the balance of the basketball universe for the reasons stated above. I'm legitimately happy for this Spurs team. They proved they were the best team in the league this year in a major way these past couple weeks. And they earned an invitation to next summer's NBA Tournament of Champions II, which I will hopefully have the time and energy for, since I'll have access to all 64 teams invited this time.

The Old, The Young, and The Gatekeepers

The NBA Playoffs are supposed to be a fun time when 16 basketball teams collide on a quest for immortality. To an extent, this is what we have so far. But at the same time, there have been some issues.

Everything is golden in the West. We had a pair of rusty teams playing on Sunday in the Spurs and Thunder, probably the two most complete teams left standing at this point. And despite their rust, they played a fantastic game that the Spurs were able to pull out 101-98. The greats find a way to pull those out. This is not a criticism of the Thunder, they are also a great team, but I think the Spurs are better. They have more depth and play basketball the right way. Plus even at his age, Tim Duncan is still a great player. And Gregg Popovich is Coach of the Year for a reason. I don't see the Thunder going away though; I don't think Durant and Westbrook will let their team go down without a fight.

Things seem a little murkier in the East. I watched much of the 2nd half of the Boston-Miami game last night. I'll get my gripes out of the way first, starting with the technicals. The only one I saw live was Rondo's, and that one was totally justified since he overreacted to getting tangled up with Shane Battier. Having seen the clip of the first half technicals (below), other than the Garnett delay of game, the officials should be ashamed of themselves.

There was also a play in the 4th where LeBron traveled leading up to a bank shot. I counted the steps; he took 3 before shooting off-balance. There were also occasions where both guys were whining and complaining about calls, Wade even getting closer to the official on his second foul (as opposed to Allen moving away). Of course, no whistles. Sham officiating.

Now, that being out of the way... Miami absolutely deserved to win last night. It was clear pretty much the whole second half. They played great team defense. They rebounded well. And most importantly, LeBron and Wade (despite the travel by LeBron and seemingly continued flops by Wade, plus the complaining by both) attacked the basket and looked impressive for the 4th straight game. LeBron is taking the step people thought he would in Cleveland, but never fully did. I personally don't think he can keep that pace up for anywhere between 7 and 13 more games, but if he can, the jokes will stop. As a Bulls fan and something of a basketball purist from having watched MJ play, I don't want LeBron to win a title. But if he raises his game and leads Miami to a title (not takes a major backseat to Wade), then I'll have nothing else to do but tip my cap to the most talented guy in the NBA for finally getting a ring. Until then, he still has a lot to prove, and has an incredibly tough road ahead of him.

Express NBA Preview

I say "express" because I don't want to take up a whole wall of text with all 30 teams. It's hard to come up with the teams that matter, so what I figured I'd do is narrow it down to the 7 teams who have even a remote shot at the title with a quick blurb about each. Should work well enough.

THE FAVORITES

-Chicago Bulls: I know it's presumptuous and possibly biased, but everyone knows that they're one of the major contenders this year. They addressed the need for another scorer while keeping their depth intact. If Boozer and Noah can stay healthy all year and Rose keeps making leap after leap, Grant Park could see another title rally.
Title Chances: 15 percent (40 percent EC Champions)

 -Dallas Mavericks: Can't exclude the defending champs. Dirk became a winner with other guys stepping up big time. But this year it'll be Brenden Haywood who will need to step up and fill the void left by Tyson Chandler. The champions will be the champions until someone knocks them off. Keep an eye on them.
Title Chances: 20 percent (40 percent WC Champions)


-Miami Heat: Last year's Eastern Conference champions still have the best trio of teammates in the league. After that... not so much. I'll ignore the possible problem at the point in favor of the big problem at center. Miami tries to upgrade from Joel Anthony with... Eddy Curry? He'll average 4 points, 3 rebounds, and 17 cheeseburgers per game. Even so, these guys will give you hell in the playoffs.
Title Chances: 20 percent (45 percent EC Champions)




-Oklahoma City Thunder: My most intriguing team in the bunch returns nearly everyone from last year's squad that made the conference finals. Another year of experience for Durant and Westbrook will help immensely, but so will a full year with Kendrick Perkins. He's not an elite center, but plays hard and will defend the rim, making the Thunder a tough out. No huge additions to the roster, but once again not a team you want to see in the playoffs.
Title Chances: 25 percent (45 percent WC Champs)



SLEEPERS

-Boston Celtics: Bill Simmons said it best. After the Big 4, the best players in green are Brandon Bass and Jermaine O'Neal. Ouch. You can't count out veteran guile and experience from Garnett, Allen and Pierce, but their window is clearly closing without much help behind them. If they manage a 6 seed at worst, they can maybe sneak in one more title.
Title Chances: 5 percent (15 percent EC Champions)

-Los Angeles Lakers: Oy vey. A terrible offseason and Kobe with a hurt wrist? It sounds like he thinks he'll be fine, but with failing knees and so many games played, his window is closing. Losing Odom was huge, but with Gasol still in house and assuming Bynum stays healthy, you can't count #24 and company out.
Title Chances: 10 percent (10 percent WC Champions)

 -San Antonio Spurs: Tim Duncan is still a winner, but he's 35. Manu is 34. Richard Jefferson is 31. They're not getting any younger, but they know the road to a title. Last year they were one of the top teams in the West still, and figure to be in the picture again, but probably not for much longer.
Title Chances: 5 percent (5 percent WC Champions)



I could probably also throw teams like New York, Indiana, Atlanta or Memphis in there, but they'd probably be a second round out (albeit a tough one). These are the 7 most likely squads to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy, but I'm leaning towards one of the first 4. My guess would be OKC over Miami, which I'd be okay with, but I'm definitely hoping to see D-Rose and company raise a 7th banner to the United Center rafters.