Overanalyzing the NBA Finals

Photo from the @spurs Twitter account

I didn't pay a ton of attention to the NBA this season compared to the NFL or the NHL. I followed the Bulls to some extent, and was, like a majority of people outside the Miami area, rooting for anyone but the Heat to win the title. So when I turned on ESPN on my way home last night to listen to Game 5, I was pleased to hear that the San Antonio Spurs were dominating the Miami Heat en route to their fifth title in 15 years. I of course had to watch the end of it. Even though I didn't see much of the series, the parts I did were just beautiful basketball.

I'm on the record here as hating the Miami Heat. I do. I respect the talent on that team, especially LeBron. But I hate the collusion that took place to build that core. I hate the arrogance they displayed once assembled. I don't like that LeBron rarely gets called for traveling despite traveling on a semiregular basis. I hate that he and Dwyane Wade flop. I hate that the two of them whine like there's no tomorrow. I don't have as big a problem with LeBron as a I do with Wade, but that combination... I hate the Heat. So I was thrilled with how the Finals turned out. If that makes me a "hater", so be it. I'm not ashamed of it.

Photo from Reuters

So what does this mean for various legacies among these two teams? For the Spurs, I'd argue that it makes them the best franchise in the post-Jordan era (it's either them or the Lakers). A lot of knowledgeable basketball fans already had him here, but he's cemented his place as the best power forward of all time. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili become arguably the best players from France and Argentina, respectively, and are in the conversation for best foreign-born player. And with the youth on this team, even if Duncan were to retire, this team still has a pretty solid core around to reload. They've kept proving people who call them too old or too boring wrong for years now. And they put on one of the best performances in the history of the NBA Finals to win their fifth title.

On the other side, a lot of people are, whether you think it's fair or not, blaming LeBron for the loss. Honestly... I can't do it. Let's look at the numbers:

• LeBron James: 28.2 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 4.0 apg, 2.0 spg, 0.4 bpg; 57% FG/52% 3PT/79% FT (while he falls just short of Bill Simmons' "42 Club", can you really complain about these numbers? This doesn't account for the cramps in Game 1 or his leaving for good with about 6:30 left last night, but I can't really blame him for those either. Especially when you consider...)
• Dwyane Wade: 15.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.6 spg, 0.0 bpg; 44% FG/33 % 3PT/69% FT (as I was compiling these stats... they aren't horrible, but for someone who's supposed to be a "superstar", it's not good, especially when you see how much he fell off the table in the final two games.)
• Chris Bosh: 14.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.0 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.2 bpg; 55% FG/38% 3PT/82% FT (Again, he did almost nothing here, though his shooting numbers aren't terrible. He had minimal shots in Game 3, and other games he was so-so.)

Photo from Andy Lions (NBAE/Getty Images)

One of the big takeaways is that LeBron did pretty much all he could, he just got no help from his supporting cast. The troll in me would like to point out that Game 6 of the '98 Finals was pretty much singlehandedly won by MJ as a counterpoint, but I'm not sure how apt that comparison is. Ultimately though, this year's Finals reminded us what it takes to win an NBA championship, and it's something I tackled in the NBA Tournament of Champions I ran last summer. The Spurs are the essence of a team, and they proved it throughout this series. It's arguably one of the most one-sided Finals in history, especially in recent memory.

It also means that the Heat need to go back to the drawing board, and maybe try to add a couple role players to help out. LeBron can't do it himself. Either way, I considered last night a victory for not only San Antonio, *puts on "hater" hat*, but for America and the good of basketball everywhere. To me, this series was a restoration of the balance of the basketball universe for the reasons stated above. I'm legitimately happy for this Spurs team. They proved they were the best team in the league this year in a major way these past couple weeks. And they earned an invitation to next summer's NBA Tournament of Champions II, which I will hopefully have the time and energy for, since I'll have access to all 64 teams invited this time.

The LeBron Rules

I will freely admit: when it comes to LeBron James and the Miami Heat, I am probably incredibly biased. Put them against my Bulls, and that bias grows against this super team from South Beach. After seeing some video of last night's Game 3 though, I had to write something. I may not have gotten to see the game since I went to see Iron Man 3, but from what I've seen, some things need to be addressed.

Coming into this series, I didn't expect the Bulls to win. I don't think my favorite Bulls expert Geoffy did either. I did expect the Bulls to give the Heat hell, and to an extent they have. But like Geoffy said, I think the Heat have gotten into the Bulls' heads a little bit. I love the fact that this series has brought back playoff basketball from the "good old days" when Michael Jordan played, but I fear this Bulls team is going in the direction of the Bad Boy Pistons... and I'm not overly thrilled about it.

It's the playoffs; hard fouls are going to happen. You have to keep your cool through it all. Miami has lost theirs some, but the Bulls have lost theirs more. I love that there's fire in this team. That's what makes me love Joakim Noah (especially for the GIF to the right) and even though he scares me sometimes, Nate Robinson. That block on LeBron was amazing. This team is going to make Miami earn every win they get. And so far, the Heat have definitely earned their two wins in this series. LeBron raised his game a level since Game 1. Miami absolutely deserves to be up in this series, and they're clearly the best team in the league.

But there's things that continue to bother me about this Miami team, hence the title of the post. The biggest moment last night came in the 2nd quarter:

Did LeBron deserve a technical for the extra-curricular shove he put on Nazr Mohammed? Probably. Did Nazr deserve to get tossed for his shove after that? Yeah, absolutely. But when I saw this the first time, my first thought was "LeBron flopped". Yeah, Nazr should have kept his head there and not shoved LeBron. It might have changed the complexion of the game. It was dirty.

But the thing I take away even after having some second thoughts watching this YouTube video a couple times continues to be, "LeBron flopped". Even Tom Thibodeau, someone who I wouldn't necessarily expect to call out an opponent for something like that, said that there was some flopping. Think back to that game where the Bulls broke Miami's long winning streak and LeBron's flagrant foul. Boozer barely budged when LeBron ran into him. Now seemingly the strongest guy in the league, who couldn't knock over Carlos Boozer, is going to fall over after a shove? It doesn't smell right. And if you watch that Nate Robinson block again, Marco Belinelli gets the rebound and Wade flops. It's disgusting.

This Miami team, if they win the title, will probably go into lore as one of the best teams of all time, and they should. The Bulls will not go quietly and Miami will have to earn this series win. But there's a reason people hate this Miami Heat team. It's not because they're talented; I respect their talent. But this is a dirty team that whines and flops, and the ultimate thing I can say about that LeBron play above, or Wade's flop? "MJ would never have done that. Not in a million years." That is why I hate Miami, dislike James, and hate Wade. As talented as these guys are, flopping should be the farthest thing from their mind, not their go-to tactic. Play the game the right way.

Raging Heat

I'm on vacation, but this is unfortunately a big deal. I couldn't even watch the end of this game. I had to listen to it on my phone, but I can't watch Miami celebrate.

Two years ago the NBA got its villain in the Heat and a team for the country to hate. Last year they couldn't handle that constant bullseye. This year many continued to say that they couldn't handle the pressure. But this year's incarnation is different.

The theme with every NBA champion in terms of the layout of their team is simple. You have one definitive alpha dog superstar, one or two wingmen and several role players. Miami got it figured out this postseason. LeBron made the leap starting in Game 4 of the Indiana series and Wade moved into the second banana role. Having Bosh back helped, and he played the role they needed him to. But it was also the role guys that stepped up. Haslem played good defense. Shane Battier played out of his mind in the Finals. Mike Miller got hot in this finale. Mario Chalmers was great, and Norris Cole was good off the bench. That's 8 guys, that's what's needed to win.

Fairly or not, this series will be overshadowed by the poor officiating throughout the playoffs. I didn't see much of Game 5 tonight, but I found myself screaming at my TV on Tuesday about missed calls. I saw on Facebook more complaints tonight. It had its impact on this series, but at the end of the day Miami won the Finals and Oklahoma City lost. The Thunder couldn't play a complete game all series long, and Miami knew how to close out games.

As I type this, the Heat just officially closed it out. I'm upset, but they earned the title. LeBron showed all postseason long that he had developed the heart of a champion and he absolutely deserves to be the Finals MVP.

As angry as this makes me, congratulations to the Miami Heat. They made a nice run this spring. The next question: Can they defend the title?

We Have a Finals!

It can be a little tiring, but I've been able to catch 2nd halves of several NBA playoff games, including both games of the Finals so far. When you take officiating out of the equation (overall, a sham in these playoffs), the games have been fantastic. So it comes as no surprise to me that the Finals shifts to Miami that we're tied at one game apiece.

Game 1 could have been something of a classic with the way Oklahoma City came back to win and in how they closed out the win. Game 2 saw Miami jump out to an early lead and made it a big lead. That's been the biggest problem for the Thunder: they start really slow and have to come back. Durant and Westbrook epitomize this the most; both guys have started really slow shooting in both games so far. And Miami has brought it in both games. The scary part is that it's not just LeBron and to a lesser extent Wade going off. Yesterday Bosh has a monster game (16-15) and Shane Battier looks like North Central's offense when they were putting Wheaton away in the CCIW title game. I thought he wouldn't be able to replicate his outside shooting from Game 1, but he's looking like what Bulls fans wanted from Keith Bogans last year. It's been incredible.

The best part about this series is that both games have been decided in the 4th quarter. Kevin Durant has been saving his best for the final few minutes of each game. He's got 34 points in the 4th quarters of the 2 games combined. It's been incredible. When he's needed to hit a big shot, he's hit it with the exception of that last shot with about 10 seconds left (more on this later).

On the other side of the coin, LeBron hasn't been daunting in the final frame still, shooting 3-9 in both 4th quarters with some turnovers. He's had 30 and 32 in these games, a drastic change from previous Finals. But last night LeBron had the 4 most crucial points for the Heat. His banker late extended Miami's lead to 5 (and it was a tough shot). He also had those icing free throws at the end that, the argument could be made, he shouldn't have taken.

When Durant took that shot on the baseline at the end, the entire Chesapeake Energy Arena was up in arms. So was Twitter. In real time I thought nothing of the shot, but watching the replay, LeBron has quite a bit of an arm bar on Durant. In most universes, that's a foul. I don't know if they missed it, wanted to "let the players play", or if the fix is in. I don't think I believe option 3 is true, so I don't know what happened. I think it was a foul. But that didn't decide the game.

I thought OKC made this game closer than they maybe should have in that they had a huge deficit to overcome. They waited too long to assert themselves and try to tie or take the lead. With probably about 4 minutes left I knew Miami was winning. The Thunder just didn't want that and made it a photo finish.

The pressure here is clearly on Oklahoma City. Game 3 is not must-win for them, but they need to grab 2 out of 3 in Miami to have the best shot at winning the title. To do that, they need to get an earlier jump on the Heat. That means attacking the basket, reestablishing the defense, trying to get the ball in transition, and rebounding the ball.

No matter what happens, this has the makings of a great series. And the superstars of each team are the front runners for Finals MVP.

Turn Up the Heat, Crank Up the Thunder

It certainly wasn't how we all thought it would happen. But one of the most expected Finals matchups coming into the playoffs ended up happening.

I had a chance to watch decent chunks of a lot of the conference finals games these past couple weeks. And really, these series were both really entertaining, albeit possibly tainted by officials. That being said, I'm convinced the two best teams will battle it out in the Finals.

Oklahoma City Thunder
These guys have learned well from the years of San Antonio's success. This is a team that knows how to play team basketball, and they have a lot of firepower. We're seeing Kevin Durant grow up before our eyes. This team has run through a veritable gauntlet on its way to the Finals after sweeping through Dallas (who, to be fair, was nowhere near championship level after winning it all last year), taking care of business against the Lakers (with Durant out-clutching Kobe) and surviving those early losses to the Spurs before taking over.

It's hard not to love this team. Kevin Durant reminds me a lot of our own superstar here in Chicago in his humility but dominance on the court. Russell Westbrook can be a little bit of a Teen Wolf at times, which is a problem, but I think he's handled everything well this postseason. And it's hard not to love a guy like James Harden, who is willing to come off the bench because it helps the team. Beyond that, the role players here are going to have to bring it. Kendrick Perkins isn't much on offense, but he needs to figure out how to take advantage of the likes of Joel Anthony down low. And Thabo Sefolosha will have his hands full on defense (most likely on Wade).

I think the Thunder can do it, but that supporting cast needs to continue to step up. Having home court advantage helps too.

Miami Heat
I would probably be in the group of people a lot of folks (read: Heat "fans") who think I'm a "hater". I don't like LeBron James because of his perceived arrogance on the court, and I hate Dwayne Wade for his crybaby antics and dirty play (the regular flopping and I'm still not happy about that flagrant-that-wasn't against Indiana). They play more like individuals sometimes than as a team unit, and throw off the dynamic of what basketball is supposed to be about.

Having said that... Miami has been as resilient a squad as any this postseason, other than Boston, who they just eliminated. They survived the loss of Chris Bosh to hang on and get this far, and they've also survived Wade not playing very well overall. He's had some good games, but he's also had some lousy games. The biggest reason for this? The guy everyone loves to hate: LeBron.

It's seemed like since the Heat went down 2-1 to Indy in the semis, something snapped in LeBron. In the 10 games since, here's his lines (points-rebounds-assists):

• 40-18-9
• 30-10-8
• 28-6-7
• 32-13-3
• 34-10-7
• 34-8-5
• 29-6-3
• 30-13-2
• 45-15-5
• 31-12-2

For those of you scoring at home, that's 33.3 PPG, 11.1 RPG, and 5.1 APG. I've bolded that pair of 40 point games for a reason; the first was his Game 4 against Indy, and the second was Game 6 against Boston. Those games were the only times the Heat have trailed in a series this postseason. When his team has needed him the most, he's been there. You can say what you want about the lack of 4th quarter chops, but I call these numbers clutch and MVP-caliber. He's raised his game to another level. You'll notice his assists are down from the regular season (4.9 to 3.9 total over the whole playoffs), but his points are going up.

Look at his expression from the past couple of games. He's bringing it all. Some people thought that 48 point game against Detroit in 2007 was his coming out party, though since then we've seen some major postseason meltdowns. This year it's different. This year's Miami team scares me. Wade has not been great and Bosh is still recovering a little bit from his strained abdomen, but LeBron has put the team on his back. But the role players are getting it done too. Mario Chalmers is building on his success from last postseason, and Shane Battier is hitting the open shots while playing good defense. That's what you need your team to do: let the superstars do their work, but you need your role players to step up and make a difference. These guys are doing that this year.

Make no mistake: the Finals will not end in Miami. This series will go back to Oklahoma City for at least one extra game, and I wouldn't be surprised it there are two. I think home court advantage (all OKC as they haven't lost at Chesapeake Arena) and the role players (advantage OKC as well) will play a factor. But most importantly: it's the superstars. The Finals make or break a superstar's legacy. Durant is not even in his prime yet, so his legend is not yet written. LeBron is 0-2 in the Finals so far, but he has a chance to raise his game and make a difference and earn himself a ring. He's earned his way this far. Whichever superstar outshines the other will lead his team to victory.

The Bulls fan in me wants it to be Durant and the Thunder. But if LeBron saddles the load and leads the Heat up the mountain, I hope the jokes stop. They will from me. 2012 is either his coming out party or his resignation back to the Barkley-Malone suite of stars who couldn't win it all. Either way, this will be a Finals to remember.

The Old, The Young, and The Gatekeepers

The NBA Playoffs are supposed to be a fun time when 16 basketball teams collide on a quest for immortality. To an extent, this is what we have so far. But at the same time, there have been some issues.

Everything is golden in the West. We had a pair of rusty teams playing on Sunday in the Spurs and Thunder, probably the two most complete teams left standing at this point. And despite their rust, they played a fantastic game that the Spurs were able to pull out 101-98. The greats find a way to pull those out. This is not a criticism of the Thunder, they are also a great team, but I think the Spurs are better. They have more depth and play basketball the right way. Plus even at his age, Tim Duncan is still a great player. And Gregg Popovich is Coach of the Year for a reason. I don't see the Thunder going away though; I don't think Durant and Westbrook will let their team go down without a fight.

Things seem a little murkier in the East. I watched much of the 2nd half of the Boston-Miami game last night. I'll get my gripes out of the way first, starting with the technicals. The only one I saw live was Rondo's, and that one was totally justified since he overreacted to getting tangled up with Shane Battier. Having seen the clip of the first half technicals (below), other than the Garnett delay of game, the officials should be ashamed of themselves.

There was also a play in the 4th where LeBron traveled leading up to a bank shot. I counted the steps; he took 3 before shooting off-balance. There were also occasions where both guys were whining and complaining about calls, Wade even getting closer to the official on his second foul (as opposed to Allen moving away). Of course, no whistles. Sham officiating.

Now, that being out of the way... Miami absolutely deserved to win last night. It was clear pretty much the whole second half. They played great team defense. They rebounded well. And most importantly, LeBron and Wade (despite the travel by LeBron and seemingly continued flops by Wade, plus the complaining by both) attacked the basket and looked impressive for the 4th straight game. LeBron is taking the step people thought he would in Cleveland, but never fully did. I personally don't think he can keep that pace up for anywhere between 7 and 13 more games, but if he can, the jokes will stop. As a Bulls fan and something of a basketball purist from having watched MJ play, I don't want LeBron to win a title. But if he raises his game and leads Miami to a title (not takes a major backseat to Wade), then I'll have nothing else to do but tip my cap to the most talented guy in the NBA for finally getting a ring. Until then, he still has a lot to prove, and has an incredibly tough road ahead of him.

Bringing Down the Foam Hammer

I will say this: I seem to have found a theme for my recent posts. And I like feeling able to post something that isn't repeated anti-BCS rhetoric. So today, we continue with officiating and decisions coming from above.

Yesterday it was baseball. Last month I was attacking Brendan Shanahan. Yesterday I could also have easily mentioned something related to the NBA playoffs, but decided to take the road that seemed to be less traveled. Unfortunately it reared its head again last night into today with the NBA's decision not to punish Dwayne Wade any further than the flagrant-1 he was assessed in Game 2 against Indiana. Here's the video for those who have missed it.

We get a good view of the context here, which helps. I think the play Wade was complaining about (the initial layup attempt in this video) should have been a foul on the Pacers. Steve Kerr says the defender was straight up (true), but since he's airborne, that should be a foul. This is really the only thing I agree with Wade on.

If contact committed against a player, with or without the ball, is interpreted to be unnecessary, a flagrant foul--penalty (1) will be assessed. A personal foul is charged to the offender and a team foul is charged to the team.-NBA Rule 12, Section IV.a

If contact committed against a player, with or without the ball, is interpret-ed to be unnecessary and excessive, a flagrant foul--penalty (2) will be assessed. A personal foul is charged to the offender and a team foul is charged to the team. -NBA Rule 12, Section IV.b (source)

The contact on the Collison fast break was absolutely unnecessary, so it was definitely deserving of Flagrant-1 status. I think you can argue Flagrant-2 as well, as Wade left his feet to hit Collison (a la the slime known as Raffi Torres) and while basketball is different from hockey, there were much easier and less dirty ways he could have gotten his point across.

I was reminded of a story Bill Simmons told in The Book of Basketball about Dave Cowens of the Celtics dishing out a similar hit then yelling at the ref, "Now that's a [expletive] foul!" By contrast Wade here seemed to be in his usual whining mode about the call.

Yet amazingly, despite the intent of Wade to level an opponent and his perceived insistence on his innocence, the NBA has decided that they don't need to punish Wade... yet a similar play netted a 2 game suspension for Jason Smith when he decked Blake Griffin. Conspiracy theorists are rampant saying that the NBA is fixed. I don't think that's true, but I do think that there is a favoritism complex in the NBA.

Fans of the NBA pretty much anywhere except Miami all hate the Heat. I'm one of them. It's not because they're a good team; I respect squads like Boston (even though they're on the downhill) and Oklahoma City and San Antonio because they play the game well. Miami does too, but they are an arrogant team (a source of animosity) who threw a party before the 2010-11 season claiming that they will win several championships before proving anything and are led by 2 superstars (I can't in good conscience dispute this fact) who also happen to be two of the biggest whiners in the league.

I dislike LeBron because of his callous treatment of Cleveland and his perceived arrogance on the court when he has yet to win anything, yet I still respect him and his talent. But I've grown to hate Wade after not minding him for the first 7 years of his career. He has turned into a flopper, a whiner, and a scumbag on the court with some stupid plays (elbowing Rip Hamilton in Chicago this year, dislocating Rondo's elbow last year in the playoffs). That's why the entire nation except for South Florida is pulling for Indiana in this series. That's why there's such an uproar amongst NBA fans.

Since the NBA seems dead set on its blinded ways, I say in Game 3, the Pacers should send Wade a message. Nothing dirty, nothing debilitating. But when he tries to drive the lane, have Tyler Hansbrough or one of the other big men give him a good, hard playoff foul. Send him hard to the floor with no intent to injure him, but to let him know that he is a scumbag, and they will not tolerate his crap any more. And hopefully one day soon, neither will the league.

Keep the White Horse in the Stable

I know... I'm infringing on Geoffy's territory. But he hasn't posted yet, and there's no rule that says we can't double up on the biggest game of the season so far.

I missed most of the 1st quarter last night, but caught the end of it on ESPN 1000, plus part of the 2nd quarter until I got home and watched the rest. This game was a phenomenal one (easy for me to say, given the result). We can't confirm anything about the seemingly inevitable playoff matchup between these teams from just this one game, but we did learn a few things about both teams.

I tried to make this a multiple point argument, but I keep coming back to one main point Bill Simmons brought up after the 2011 NBA Finals.

"You can't win with three guys. You need seven, at least, then you need a couple of random Brian Cardinal-type moments every game. That's why Rick Carlisle so pointedly kept mentioning "team basketball" in the postgame presser last night. You need eight or nine guys to come through to win a title. We learn this every spring. And then, we forget it every summer, fall, and winter. The 2010-11 Heat tried to buck the system. Didn't work." [Source]

That was what happened last night. LeBron and Wade combined for 71 of the Heat's 102 points. And yes, James Jones had 2 huge 3's near the end that made it more interesting than I wanted it to be. But Bosh was awful last night (3-15 shooting), and Jones' 2 triples were the only ones he took. As a whole, Miami's bench shot 4-14 (15 points). That's not going to get it done.

On the other hand, the entire Bulls team came ready to play. Deng struggled from the field, but the shots he hit were crucial ones. Watson played nice defense, coming up with a big layup off a steal to stem a Miami run. Noah played great defense, coming up with some key blocks.

But the biggest thing last night was the beloved Bench Mob. Korver brought the hot sauce. Gibson and Asik controlled the paint. Jimmy Butler continues to show promise. But of course, the biggest star last night was John Lucas III.

I wish they had the CSN Chicago feed up when I wrote this. Stacey King went nuts. ("I don't care who you are, LeBron James! You can't stop me! You can't even hope to contain me!") I tweeted that Derrick Rose must have bestowed his "Destroyer of Worlds" powers to John Lucas last night. Something happened where John Lucas just couldn't miss.

The other big numbers? The Bulls won the rebounding battle (50-34). The Bulls had 14 offensive boards leading to 21 2nd chance points. You won't win many games giving a team like the Bulls that many opportunities.

Let's put this game into perspective though. Would the presence of D-Rose have made this game a little more separated? I want to say yes... but I don't know. LeBron would have been on him the whole time and they would have trapped him everywhere. He wouldn't have gotten to attack the way Lucas did. The Bulls also shot 10-19 from deep last night (they were 9-13 at one point). They won't be that hot from deep every night unfortunately. At the same time, it took Dwayne Wade going off in the 4th quarter to get the game that close. I'll be honest. He scares me, but it's hard to go 8-9 from the field in a quarter, and 4-5 from outside the paint. One constant you can figure will still happen is that LeBron will still disappear in the 4th quarter.

Regardless, when these teams meet in the Eastern Conference Finals, we're going to be due for another bloodbath. The Bulls will have a great shot this year at getting over the hump and making the Finals behind the hero known as D-Rose, but he won't be going in alone. He'll have his supporting cast right beside him to help get to the Promised Land.

Express NBA Preview

I say "express" because I don't want to take up a whole wall of text with all 30 teams. It's hard to come up with the teams that matter, so what I figured I'd do is narrow it down to the 7 teams who have even a remote shot at the title with a quick blurb about each. Should work well enough.

THE FAVORITES

-Chicago Bulls: I know it's presumptuous and possibly biased, but everyone knows that they're one of the major contenders this year. They addressed the need for another scorer while keeping their depth intact. If Boozer and Noah can stay healthy all year and Rose keeps making leap after leap, Grant Park could see another title rally.
Title Chances: 15 percent (40 percent EC Champions)

 -Dallas Mavericks: Can't exclude the defending champs. Dirk became a winner with other guys stepping up big time. But this year it'll be Brenden Haywood who will need to step up and fill the void left by Tyson Chandler. The champions will be the champions until someone knocks them off. Keep an eye on them.
Title Chances: 20 percent (40 percent WC Champions)


-Miami Heat: Last year's Eastern Conference champions still have the best trio of teammates in the league. After that... not so much. I'll ignore the possible problem at the point in favor of the big problem at center. Miami tries to upgrade from Joel Anthony with... Eddy Curry? He'll average 4 points, 3 rebounds, and 17 cheeseburgers per game. Even so, these guys will give you hell in the playoffs.
Title Chances: 20 percent (45 percent EC Champions)




-Oklahoma City Thunder: My most intriguing team in the bunch returns nearly everyone from last year's squad that made the conference finals. Another year of experience for Durant and Westbrook will help immensely, but so will a full year with Kendrick Perkins. He's not an elite center, but plays hard and will defend the rim, making the Thunder a tough out. No huge additions to the roster, but once again not a team you want to see in the playoffs.
Title Chances: 25 percent (45 percent WC Champs)



SLEEPERS

-Boston Celtics: Bill Simmons said it best. After the Big 4, the best players in green are Brandon Bass and Jermaine O'Neal. Ouch. You can't count out veteran guile and experience from Garnett, Allen and Pierce, but their window is clearly closing without much help behind them. If they manage a 6 seed at worst, they can maybe sneak in one more title.
Title Chances: 5 percent (15 percent EC Champions)

-Los Angeles Lakers: Oy vey. A terrible offseason and Kobe with a hurt wrist? It sounds like he thinks he'll be fine, but with failing knees and so many games played, his window is closing. Losing Odom was huge, but with Gasol still in house and assuming Bynum stays healthy, you can't count #24 and company out.
Title Chances: 10 percent (10 percent WC Champions)

 -San Antonio Spurs: Tim Duncan is still a winner, but he's 35. Manu is 34. Richard Jefferson is 31. They're not getting any younger, but they know the road to a title. Last year they were one of the top teams in the West still, and figure to be in the picture again, but probably not for much longer.
Title Chances: 5 percent (5 percent WC Champions)



I could probably also throw teams like New York, Indiana, Atlanta or Memphis in there, but they'd probably be a second round out (albeit a tough one). These are the 7 most likely squads to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy, but I'm leaning towards one of the first 4. My guess would be OKC over Miami, which I'd be okay with, but I'm definitely hoping to see D-Rose and company raise a 7th banner to the United Center rafters.