COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 9

We're quickly approaching the halfway point of the NFL season already. It's kind of crazy how quickly this has gone. It's been a fun season still, and there's still a lot of time left.

The coalition continues to chug along, though the gap between pickers has grown. Adam had another down week last week, while I saw my first week in double digit anything. Of last week's seven differences in picks, I ended up getting six right.

Adam had this to say before we get to our picks:

"So after several poor showings, I am going to do something that I have threatened Lucas with doing…  I am going all cheerleaders all days.  Every pick I make with be based on which cheerleader(s) I like better.  That is it."

Well then.

With six byes earned at the halfway mark, we only have 13 games this week. Adam and I disagree on eight of them. Let's see if his new, um... strategy... proves to be of any use.

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 10

Another week, another batch of college football games to look over.

We're really getting down to the nitty-gritty of the season at this point. With only three teams still undefeated, wins are really at a premium. And you thought a playoff would devalue the regular season...

Most teams still have another five games to go, though some might have more or less depending on byes. Most of the action this week is once again in-conference, but there will still be a handful of games outside of those boundaries that will change the NCSS metric around a bit.

You can refer back to last week's rankings here. Let's see how this week changes the numbers.

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 9 Edition

It is time.

With the weekend fully behind us, and a day ahead of the selection committee for the College Football Playoff, I'm back with my fourth mockup of the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

I continue to believe that while the FBS took things a step in the right direction, they haven't gone far enough. Four teams isn't enough to decide a champion out of the whole division. Hence, the sixteen team field. Each of the ten conferences will be represented by its champion, either decided in round robin in smaller conferences, or by the conference title game in the bigger ones. The rest of the field will be filled out with at-large teams, either independents or additional squads from the ten conferences.

So how is this decided? I use math, both of my own design and by others' designs, to help me out. From my own resources, I use weekly Non Conference Schedule Strength numbers to a small degree to figure out if teams are actually doing enough outside of their own leagues. To a larger degree, I use First Degree and Second Degree Playoff Points to more closely analyze how good each team really is: did you beat someone of significance, or was it an also-ran? You can view all those numbers for each individual team here.

Because I want some outside sources as well, I use a pair of computer rankings that used to be used in the early days of BCS calculations, but they stopped since both use margin of victory (which is kind of important). I've been using Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings for the first few editions, and I finally have my other set of rankings available too. The late David Rothman made his formula publicly available, and a staff member at UCLA plugs in all the data to rank the teams as well.

Below you will find each team ordered by seed, containing all the above numbers. Non-Conference  Schedule Strength is abbreviated NCSS, First Degree and Second Degree Playoff Points are abbreviated PP1 and PP2, respectively, Rothman's rankings are abbreviated ROTH, and Sagarin's are abbreviated SAG.

If you want to refer back to last week's numbers, you can view them here. Let's get to it.

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 9

Another weekend, another batch of chaos among the college football ranks. With it comes mourning; the Little Brass Bell was stolen from where it rightfully belongs in heartbreaking fashion. With the loss of the Bell also probably comes the end of North Central's playoff hopes at the D-III level, barring some sort of miracle (at a best-case scenario 8-2, NCC probably isn't getting an at-large bid).

The highest level of the college ranks had some turmoil as well; we're down to only three undefeated teams with Ole Miss falling in Death Valley. With a bevy of one-loss teams now teeming among the waters of the FBS, I will need to eventually reach a consensus regarding the Death to the BCS Playoffs. But that struggle comes later.

For now, I have data entry and updating to do. Most of the week's games were in-conference again, but that has little bearing on the Playoff Points rankings, since at this point most of the rankings probably are where they will finish, or close to it. If you need a refresher on what these metrics mean, you can refer back to this post from Week 1.

Let's dig into the spreadsheet.

wife breaks into phone

My wife is awesome. I'm so glad she's a great baker. I always have yummy treats at home. She can also out eat me when we have pizza. Our cats are awesome too. Go hawks!

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 8

The coalition may need a little help as we approach the halfway mark of the season.

It was a down week for the entirety of the group, as everyone finished below .500 for the week, including me for the second straight week. Part of it had to do with groupthink failing epically; there were eight games we were unanimous on, and we missed seven of those. The dissenting games worked well for me though; I won four of the five games Adam and I disagreed on.

The numbers are a little off again though; Adam is on record last week picking the Ravens over the Falcons, but his ESPN pick was the Falcons. That's actually the second time he's goofed in that direction, so his numbers are actually better than what ESPN is reporting. The numbers listed in the records below is adjusted to compensate for this. (And this is why I always double check my picks when I write this post.)

The Giants and 49ers are on a bye this week, giving us 15 games to pick once again. This week, Adam and I disagree on seven of them. With so much of the season left, he can certainly make a comeback.

Let's pick some games.

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 9

Week 9 of the NCAA football season begins today! And with it, another batch of games that will go a long way to deciding who can make the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

We're more than a few weeks into the heart of conference play, which makes my data gathering easier. It also makes summarizing what goes on each week much easier. You'll notice the difference between the first few weeks with almost every game out of conference and a post like last week's, where there were a grand total of four out-of-conference tilts.

The big question for this metric this week: can the SEC get back in the black? They've gone two weeks in a row with negative scores based on all the FCS games this late in the year. I know we have at least one more in store, though their final week will probably be better. Even so, I find it reprehensible.

Let's take a look at the non-conference schedules for the week, and how they affect the conferences' NCSS scores.