Game Notes: Aurora University @ North Central College (12/30/13)

Final Score
NCC 108, Aurora 80

Game Summary
This game felt closer than it should have been in the early going. The Cardinals (7-4) needed a couple minutes to get going, but led 11-3 just over four minutes in and 16-5 about five and a half minutes in. The lead stayed around that range for several minutes but the Spartans (4-7) never wavered, narrowing the gap to two points when the halftime buzzer sounded. Order was quickly restored in the second half though as the Cardinals went on a 15-2 run to open up a 60-45 edge two and a half minutes into the frame. Still, the Spartans didn't go away, keeping within striking distance and even got within six at 77-71 with less than 10 mintues to go. From there, the Cardinals decided they'd had enough shenanigans and pulled away for a comfortable win.

Key Stats

• Miranda Grizaffi (NCC): 5-12 FG (5-12 3PT), 2-2 FT; 17 pts, 3 reb, 1 ast, 1 stl. I could have gone in a few directions for top NCC player yesterday. I decided on Miranda based on this being kind of her breakout game. She shot well last night and led her team in scoring. She was primarily aided by Larynn Shumaker (16 points on 5-8 shooting plus 6-6 on freebies) and Lauren Hernandez (12 points on 4-11 shooting).
• Anna Roszkowski (AUR): 9-17 FG, 10-14 FT; 28 pts, 20 reb (10 ofr), 2 ast, 1 blk. After the game when the Sports Information guys and a local reporter were looking at the stat sheet, somebody mentioned that this looked like a Karl Malone line. Holy crap. Roszkowski was lethal in the first half, when she had a 23-12. She was a big part of a minute stretch where Aurora maintained possession based on something like 6 or 7 straight offensive rebounds that might have killed me if it had netted more than her one point on a free throw.
• Shay Jenkins (AUR): 10-24 FG (0-1 3PT), 5-8 FT; 25 pts, 10 reb, 7 ast, 3 stl. Like Roszkowski was in the first half, Jenkins was the key for the Spartans after halftime in keeping the game close. She kept finding ways into the lane to drop home floater after floater. Regarding the rebound numbers: she's 5'4". Let that sink in. In the second half, she shot 8-16 and hit all four of her free throws.

North Central System Watch

• NCC 3PT: 17-62 (27.4%). Percentage-wise, this is lower than you'd like. But when you end up making 17 three's in a game, you can live with it a little more. The shooting seemed more crisp than it did on Saturday, which helped. I said Saturday that this team lives and dies by the three, and the numbers back it up. In the first half, the Cardinals shot 7-33 from deep (21.7%). In the second, they shot 10-29 (34.5%). If they can sustain that shooting percentage closer to 30 percent, and even a few points higher, this team will be very tough to beat.
• Aurora Turnovers: 39. That also helps matters. There weren't a lot of whistles for traveling, and Aurora didn't throw many passes out of bounds. It showed; 27 of those turnovers came off Cardinal steals. 13 players recorded at least one theft, led by Maryssa Cladis' five. Bobbi Johns and Marion Boeck each added four.

Final Thoughts
I told a number of people in the first half that there was no way we should have let Aurora hang around the way they were. Fortunately the Cardinals caught fire and put the game out of reach at the end. They close out non-conference play with the same mark they had last year at 7-4, with no real surprises. The four teams they've lost to are all good teams, especially Hope. There is an interesting stat that we've seen through 11 games. Look at NCC's schedule and results so far. They are 7-0 when scoring at least 100 points and 0-4 when they fail to hit the century mark. The Cardinals only hit that mark six times last year, so clearly in Year Two of the new system, the offense has figured out a lot of the kinks. They've actually scored just over 100 points per game this season, yet still have a total point differential of -1 on the season.

Millikin and North Park play today to hit the 11-game mark, while Wheaton plays its 10th of the year (they have a date against IIT in late January for some reason). Of all the CCIW squads, only Augustana has a losing record. Wheaton sits at 8-1 coming into today, and preseason favorite Carthage is 9-2. I was surprised to see Illinois Wesleyan is only 6-5, but they've played a ton of tough competition, with four of their five losses coming to teams in or just outside the last Top 25 poll. As usual, the CCIW is going to be a gauntlet. The Cardinals snuck into the tournament last year with a 6-8 mark in conference. I don't think it's out of the question to see the Cardinals hit .500 in conference play this year and make the tournament again, but teams will be gunning for them this year.

Talking to Michelle Roof before the game yesterday, she was thrilled that I had been back after missing a couple games and mentioned that the energy and the aura of the team just seems different at home when I'm there. I'm sure a lot of it is being in a familiar environment without having to travel and knowing the rims and such. I told her that I'm an intangible, but I want to try and give them as much of a home court advantage as I can, and if my work energizes this team, I'm happy to help. But they deserve the credit. I'm just a guy who happens to like yelling "THREEEEEEEEEE!" a lot.

CCIW play begins Saturday, and the Cardinals open at home against North Park. This is a big one for no other reason than how last year's tilt at Merner ended. Hopefully these girls can get some revenge for last year and start CCIW play on the right foot.

COAS Hands Out 2013 NFL Awards

Photo from fanpop.com.

It is said that all good things must come to an end. That means that the 2013 NFL regular season had to. There was a lot of drama all the way through and plenty of games that decided playoff fates of nearly every team in the NFL. I got to see a thrilling game send my Packers to the playoffs when Aaron Rodgers escaped a sack and found a wide open Randall Cobb for the game winner. A lot of Bears fans (including a couple at work) have been extremely classy today. And then there's the idiots that you find on the Internet who are blaming the refs for what came down to Green Bay executing when it mattered most.

Hopefully I won't be as much of an idiot on the Web. Looking back at predictions, I feel dumb about a few things (picking the Vikings at 9-7, underrating Kansas City, San Diego and Arizona), but I nailed a few teams right on the money, so there's that. Ultimately, I think I only got about half of the playoff teams correct though.

Anyway, like I did last year, I'm going to give my (unofficial) votes for the major NFL awards. It's been pretty accurate so far, but I'm certainly open to other guys winning that I don't give my vote to. Let's get to the results.

2013 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Quarterfinals

Bowl season is in full swing now. 15 games have been played to date. And to think: we could have a system where you still play these exhibition games with teams that had decent or good seasons, and still have a playoff to decide who the best of the best truly is.

I'm onto the second round now of what I feel is the best playoff system that was designed by the authors of the book seen to your left, and it had a little bit of drama in Round 1, but now it gets tougher. The top four seeds all advanced and get a second home game, but can they replicate their early results against tougher competition? Or will we see a couple more upsets stacked onto the pair that we had from the opening round? We're about to find out.

Like last round, the higher seeds do get home field advantage, and I tried to make the weather (taken from weather.com) as accurate to real conditions as possible. Each game will simulated as a best-of-three, but I'm only taking the "clinching" game as the real result. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get started.

Game Notes: St. Mary's University @ North Central College (12/28/13)

Final Score
St. Mary's (MN) 99, NCC 81

Game Summary
In a game where they never trailed, the St. Mary's Cardinals (6-1) scored on their first possession and never looked back. North Central (6-4) kept it within single digits for a good chunk of the half and even pulled within three at 24-21 with 6:53 left in the frame. Then St. Mary's went on a tear, scoring 12 unanswered in less than two and a half minutes. North Central rallied and made it a 49-38 game at halftime. North Central couldn't really close the gap unfortunately, as St. Mary's pulled away slowly but surely, leading by as many as 23 points. North Central pulled to within 13 a couple times but could get no closer in the final minutes.

Key Stats

• NCC: 36 turnovers. Offensively... it was a nightmarish day for this Cardinal team. I don't know if they were tired or weren't entirely ready for the game, but they struggled. They telegraphed a lot of passes and were a little careless with the ball yesterday. Not one of their best performances this season. 20 of those turnovers came in the first half, so they did improve a bit as the game went on.
• Shelby Auseth (SMU): 12-18 FG (2-3 3PT), 2-3 FT; 28 pts, 7 reb, 3 ast, 1 stl, 2 blk. She killed in basically all facets of the game yesterday. St. Mary's was efficient from deep, and Auseth was a part of it. She also had some good looks at layups throughout the game. She took advantage of North Central's system and had herself an excellent game.
• Uzuri Williams (NCC): 6-10 FG, 1-2 FT; 13 pts, 5 reb (2 ofr), 2 stl, 1 blk. I think this was a breakout game for the junior transfer. She showed some decent moves down in the post, rebounded relatively well, and a few times in the game showed great hands on defense. I felt like she had more than the two steals. She could be a valuable piece moving into conference play next weekend.

North Central System Watch

• NCC 3PT: 8-31 (25.8%). I think this number might have looked uglier than it actually was. A few threes in the first half were pretty bad shots in that they were contested or really, really long. The Cardinals seemed short on a lot of their looks, even the open ones. It just wasn't their day. If they hit even a couple more of those (or move in a tad closer), this becomes more of a ballgame and we don't see the point disparity we did late. Such is the system: you live by the three, you die by the three.
• SMU Turnovers: 28. Not a bad total, though obviously it's bad when you turn it over more than that. North Central forced them into a few mistakes, but also notched 17 steals as a team. Bobbi Johns was her usual self, leading the team with 4 takeaways. Maryssa Cladis and Uzuri Williams each had 2 to help out.

Final Thoughts
Any post-Christmas hangovers should be gone now, I'd hope. A few players looked to be out of breath as the game went on. I noticed Larynn Shumaker breathing pretty hard coming out of the game at one point (though despite the fatigue, she had an okay game with 14 points on 6-14 shooting). Ultimately though, one of the worst offensive showings of the young season doomed this team. Side note: you know it's sad when you shoot 40% as a team and score 81 points, yet call it "one of the worst". I trust this team though. St. Mary's is no slouch and they played well yesterday. North Central gets a day to reflect and move on before non conference rival Aurora University visits Gregory Arena. They've had some struggles this year, so I'm looking forward to my Cardinals unleashing the press on them.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 17

Here we are. Week 17. Several weeks of hard work and determination culminate in a lot of do or die games. Eight spots of the 12 are already determined for the playoffs, but a lot of seeds aren't established yet. One thing that is though is a second straight winning record.

Last week's decent performance was enough to push me over the mark to guarantee a .500 record this season. I'll take it. Even if I go 0-16 this week I'll still finish with 132 wins, but I'm aiming for loftier heights. And a playoff berth for my team, but that's another story.

So below, you can see my final batch of NFL picks against the spread for 2013.

2013 Death to the BCS Playoffs: First Round

I almost did this wrong. I set a reminder on my phone to go grab weather forecasts for a couple places, but I had them set to go for Saturday the 14th as opposed to Saturday the 21st. Fortunately I caught my mistake and set it up for this weekend.

Part of me loves to process of building the playoffs more than actually running through them, but I think this does a good job of answering questions of who is more likely to be the best team in the nation. Obviously it's not the same as actually playing the games, but it's the best I can do.

If you want to see the playoff bracket as it's set up, you can view it here, or click on the link up at the top of the page. We're playing through the first round today. The simulation rules are pretty simple: higher seeds get home field advantage, and I try to get the weather conditions as accurate as I can for the game (conditions are obtained by weather.com around the predetermined kickoff time). Start times are for the Central time zone, and I try not to screw teams over with start times either too early or too late. I simulate first round games as a best-of-three to get a more accurate result, with the "clinching" game being the official result. Let's play some football.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 16

We're coming down to two weeks left, and I feel pretty good about how I'm picking stuff. This week provided me with one of my best showings ever, since I only missed games that were total upsets. Such is what makes gambling on football... not the smartest proposition.

Fortunately for me, this isn't based on money. Though looking at records, I'd probably have made money were I gambling. Alas, I'm not that crazy, so I'm sticking to picking for pride at this point. I need just 6 correct picks over the next two weeks combined to finish over .500 for the season. I like those odds.

So without further ado, here are my Week 16 picks.