Up Against the Wall

I haven't done much in the way of NBA posts on here in a while. NCC basketball, football, and the Blackhawks have taken precedence recently. With the playoff run on though, I've been trying to pay some attention to what's been going on.

Last night the Bulls dropped a tough Game 5 to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The loss has them facing elimination, but coming back home for Game 6 on Thursday.

This is something of a quick analysis, while also making complaints known. Please note that the following post will probably reek of some fierce homerism.

These last two Bulls losses have been tough. In Game 4, the Bulls led by as many as 11 in the fourth quarter, but blew the lead before LeBron's buzzer beater. But before that... some shady stuff happened.


There should have been a technical foul there. The Cavs were out of timeouts. It's possible none of this changes anything, but the Bulls should have gotten a free throw here. Then there's the whole free timeout from the review fiasco. On top of the free timeout, the officials inexplicably put time back on the clock where no time should have been put back on. LeBron wouldn't have gotten that shot off had the clock not been reset. We'd have gone to overtime, where maybe the Cavs still come away with the win... I don't know.

Then last night... the Bulls made a late charge from down 15 points to make it interesting, but they had to do it without Taj Gibson, who was ejected following this sequence.

I'm sorry, but that's a dirty play by Dellavedova. Taj needs to keep his cool, yes, but Dellavedova wasn't kicked. At least, not in the way the officials saw it. Give him a technical, sure. He was playing very physical on Dellavedova, to the point where a regular foul could have been called too (and I wouldn't argue it). But that is not a Flagrant 2. The Bulls lost an important big man down the stretch, where having him may have made a difference. The fact that Joey Crawford was an official last night... conspiracy theorists are having a field day.

I'm going to take my homer hat off now, because I feel that I've vented enough. These last two games, the officials have been horrible. That said, they aren't the reason the Bulls have lost these last two games.

In Game 4, LeBron got called for multiple offensive fouls as the game went along. While I feel he should be called for it more, that's not the point. He was called for it, and the Bulls couldn't take advantage. He then proceeded to make a fantastic shot at the buzzer to win the game. Last night, the Bulls shot only 31 percent from the floor in the first half to fall behind 54-44 at the break. They put themselves in a hole. LeBron also made sure the Bulls wouldn't finish things off, making a great block on a Rose layup to tie, then defending the inbound pass well and forcing an off-balance Butler three that missed the mark. The Bulls then couldn't get the loose ball on the ensuing possession. That's not on the NBA, or the officials. That's on the Bulls for failing to execute.

If you were able to continue reading through my complaints about the officials, thank you for indulging my whining. The officiating in this series (and really, overall) has been awful. It is not, however, the reason why the Bulls are facing elimination. It's easy to look at those events and blame someone else for the Bulls' shortcoming. Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way. The Bulls have had chances in both to make a difference at the end. Both times, they failed to do so. Now, they are one loss away from ending their season. If it happens, they shouldn't blame anyone but themselves.

Most Valuabull To His Team

I haven't had much opportunity to do a lot of analysis of current sports events lately. A lot of focus here has been on North Central basketball, or running crazy tournaments to decide historical Greatest-Of-All-Time teams. But I feel like this is a topic I should chime in on. After all, I can't let Geoffy have a monopoly on the NBA and the Bulls, can I?

I was kind of looking forward to this NBA season with Derrick Rose expected to return to complete a core that a lot of people felt was definitely capable of winning a championship, but things fell apart very quickly. A perfect sports day on my 24th birthday was ruined by news that Rose had torn his meniscus and was likely to miss the rest of the season. Unfortunately, injuries are a part of the NBA and we have to take that news when it comes.

Photo by David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images

I think a lot of people, and I'd probably include myself, thought that that would be the end of the Bulls' season. The front office almost seemed to agree when they dealt Luol Deng to Cleveland. Even so, it was a move I agreed with, because it sets up the Bulls for reloading in the 2014 offseason, even though I'm not sold that they will get the ultimate prize. But that's a story for another time.

No one on the outside could have blamed the Bulls for dropping off the table after the Deng trade. Without your best guy, your glue guy, a team that was under .500 in a terrible conference would normally say enough and try to position themselves for the best possible draft pick this summer. But we all seemed to forget just who this Bulls team really is.

There should be some awards for this team that get announced this summer. First and foremost, and probably somewhat biased, Tom Thibodeau should win Coach of the Year. I don't mean to discredit guys like Jeff Hornacek, who has done a terrific job with the Suns, or perennial candidate Gregg Popovich of the Spurs. Thibs has had to deal with losing his best player to a knee injury for the third straight season (I'm counting the April 2012 ACL tear as the first). And when you consider what Deng meant to this Bulls team and Thibs in particular... man. Deng was one of, if not the guy that Thibs relied on most on this Bulls team. I thought for the last few years that Deng was the glue guy that kept this team going. Obviously the development of Jimmy Butler has helped with this loss to some degree. Say what you will about his management of minutes on his key guys, but this Bulls team would have folded without Thibodeau. This is not a debatable fact. Other coaches may have kept the ship around where Thibs has kept it, but I don't know if anyone would have had the same degree of success.

Photo by Charles Rex Arbogast (AP)

Going along with this though has been the presence of the guy who's clearly now my favorite Bull: Joakim Noah. He's the type of guy that you hate when he plays for an opposing team, but if he's on your team, you love him. I love how he does all the little things your team needs to do to win, and I love his energy and passion he brings every night. You know he cares and he doesn't care what anyone thinks of him. Over the course of his career he's turned into one of the best defenders in the league, and I would go so far as to say he's the Defensive Player of the Year this year.

Now bear with me, because I'm going to put my homer hat partially on: Joakim Noah should get some votes for Most Valuable Player.

Photo by Jonathan Daniel (Getty Images)

Now before you denounce me as a lunatic Bulls fan, or a blind homer, or a "hater", let me clarify my position. Voters for the MVP vote for the top five guys for this award. I'm not going to sit here and say that Noah should be getting consideration for first place votes. If I had a ballot, I'd probably vote Kevin Durant first and LeBron James second. The kind of season Durant has had overall puts him in a very good position in that regard, and LeBron is LeBron. Those two guys deserve the 1-2 in MVP voting in some order. But I think Noah should finish in the Top Five. His numbers aren't first place-worthy (12.2 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.5 BPG, 1.1 SPG, while shooting 48.5% from the field and 71.5% from the line) compared to LeBron or Durant, but averaging a double double is nothing to sneeze at. But his value clearly comes from those intangibles. Even with the Bulls' loss last night, I still have to put Noah up on that list somewhere.

Photo by Mike Ehrmann (Getty Images)

I'm also a realist. This Bulls team, as currently constructed, is probably not going to win a championship. In today's NBA, you need to have at least one superstar to win, plus the one or two major sidekicks and a few key role players. Being without Derrick Rose all but excludes this Bulls team, and Joakim Noah isn't at that superstar level unfortunately. But you can bet that Indiana and Miami are not looking forward to facing the Bulls in the playoffs. The Bulls may not win, but whoever they face will be relieved to be past them because of the hell Thibs, Noah and company put them through. If you're going to beat this Bulls team, you have to earn it.

The LeBron Rules

I will freely admit: when it comes to LeBron James and the Miami Heat, I am probably incredibly biased. Put them against my Bulls, and that bias grows against this super team from South Beach. After seeing some video of last night's Game 3 though, I had to write something. I may not have gotten to see the game since I went to see Iron Man 3, but from what I've seen, some things need to be addressed.

Coming into this series, I didn't expect the Bulls to win. I don't think my favorite Bulls expert Geoffy did either. I did expect the Bulls to give the Heat hell, and to an extent they have. But like Geoffy said, I think the Heat have gotten into the Bulls' heads a little bit. I love the fact that this series has brought back playoff basketball from the "good old days" when Michael Jordan played, but I fear this Bulls team is going in the direction of the Bad Boy Pistons... and I'm not overly thrilled about it.

It's the playoffs; hard fouls are going to happen. You have to keep your cool through it all. Miami has lost theirs some, but the Bulls have lost theirs more. I love that there's fire in this team. That's what makes me love Joakim Noah (especially for the GIF to the right) and even though he scares me sometimes, Nate Robinson. That block on LeBron was amazing. This team is going to make Miami earn every win they get. And so far, the Heat have definitely earned their two wins in this series. LeBron raised his game a level since Game 1. Miami absolutely deserves to be up in this series, and they're clearly the best team in the league.

But there's things that continue to bother me about this Miami team, hence the title of the post. The biggest moment last night came in the 2nd quarter:

Did LeBron deserve a technical for the extra-curricular shove he put on Nazr Mohammed? Probably. Did Nazr deserve to get tossed for his shove after that? Yeah, absolutely. But when I saw this the first time, my first thought was "LeBron flopped". Yeah, Nazr should have kept his head there and not shoved LeBron. It might have changed the complexion of the game. It was dirty.

But the thing I take away even after having some second thoughts watching this YouTube video a couple times continues to be, "LeBron flopped". Even Tom Thibodeau, someone who I wouldn't necessarily expect to call out an opponent for something like that, said that there was some flopping. Think back to that game where the Bulls broke Miami's long winning streak and LeBron's flagrant foul. Boozer barely budged when LeBron ran into him. Now seemingly the strongest guy in the league, who couldn't knock over Carlos Boozer, is going to fall over after a shove? It doesn't smell right. And if you watch that Nate Robinson block again, Marco Belinelli gets the rebound and Wade flops. It's disgusting.

This Miami team, if they win the title, will probably go into lore as one of the best teams of all time, and they should. The Bulls will not go quietly and Miami will have to earn this series win. But there's a reason people hate this Miami Heat team. It's not because they're talented; I respect their talent. But this is a dirty team that whines and flops, and the ultimate thing I can say about that LeBron play above, or Wade's flop? "MJ would never have done that. Not in a million years." That is why I hate Miami, dislike James, and hate Wade. As talented as these guys are, flopping should be the farthest thing from their mind, not their go-to tactic. Play the game the right way.

A Long Summer's Wait

Photo taken by Justin Zipser.

I have the worst sense of timing it seems.

During much of the regular season for the Blackhawks, I would up tuning into games where they'd lose in overtime. I had just gotten in my car to turn on ESPN-1000 to hear the end of the Bulls game tonight. Unfortunately it just so happened I tuned in to hear Iguodala's free throws that sealed the series. My stomach sank.

This was a painful series for us Bulls fans, as I'm sure Geoffy can attest to. It was a painful series for the Bulls, who became the Walking Wounded by series' end. And for a team that came into the postseason thinking championship or bust, it was a punch in the stomach, following by a kick in the groin.

You have to give the Bulls credit; they were not going to go out without a fight tonight. And they gave Philly a great fight pretty much the whole series. But the Sixers executed in the fourth quarter consistently; the Bulls coughed up leads late. It's what we hounded LeBron about last year in the Finals, so the Bulls deserve that same scrutiny. Based on the fact that they had 4th quarter leads they couldn't protect, the Bulls should have won this series. But they gave it away.

I have to tip my hat to the Sixers for sticking by what Evan Turner said before the playoffs started. They backed up his talk. That being said, I am rooting for Boston in the next round. Not just because I think they have the best shot in the East of taking out Miami, but also because of the callous actions of some of the Sixers fans. I know, every city has its scumbag fans. I'm a Cubs fan; I know many of my fellow Cubs fans can sink pretty low. But so many of the stories of bad fans come from Philadelphia, and I feel bad for the good fans there whose reputations are tarnished by these goons.

That little rant aside, what can we expect from the Bulls next season? Obviously I think they'll be back in the picture next year, but at least for starters as a fringe contender. We don't know how long Rose will be out while his knee heals, and Deng will need wrist surgery. I certainly think the rest of the core can tread water until the key guys return. As for reinforcements, don't expect anything. I doubt the Bulls will use their amnesty on Boozer just yet as he improved overall during the season, but disappeared tonight. Without that, there's minimal cap space to add pieces other than through the draft, and I don't know what the Bulls can get yet.

The title window is nowhere near closed yet though, Bulls fans. Try and enjoy the summer watching our baseball teams overachieve a little bit, prepare for football to start up again, and know that this team will be back. It may take a while, but they will.

Was This Over Before... Before It Ever Began?

Back in 2004 when I was a sophomore in high school, I started to going to my school's football games. It began as a "Let's get points for the Homecoming competition", but I enjoyed myself so much I made it to every home game (and playoff game home or away) after that. Aurora Christian was just discovering its entry into the world of competitive IHSA football, and in the first year under Don Beebe, we were ready for a title run. We'd won our first 2 playoff games, advancing to the quarterfinals for the first time in school history. Everything seemed to be going right until a couple days before the game. One of our star wide receivers in his first year with the team woke up one morning with chest pain and went to the hospital. It turned out that a preexisting heart condition flared up requiring surgery and he missed that game. Our hearts and prayers went out to him. We would up losing that game, but said star would make a full recovery and finally get to play for the basketball team. His debut at home was inspiring and his first basket nearly blew the roof off the old "801" gym on the west side of Aurora.

This is the kind of inspiring story Chicago Bulls fans are hoping for in these playoffs, seeing a similar unexpected turn. I found some reminders of my sophomore year of high school in the hours since Derrick Rose tore his ACL against the 76ers. I wasn't watching the game, but was following along on Twitter. When I heard the news, my heart sank. Obviously tearing a ligament in your knee isn't anywhere near as serious as a heart problem, but both events see a final result of a star missing out on big playoff games. I along with all of Chicago am praying that Derrick will have a speedy, but more importantly full recovery to come back and have the impact he has had his first 3 1/2 years in the NBA.

What does this mean for the Bulls? The obvious initial reaction that everyone (myself and Geoffy included) comes to is that the Bulls are no longer title contenders. It's hard to say for certain, but thinking about it, that's the most likely scenario. The best case, of course, would be that the Bulls come together again as a team and resolve to win for Derrick as it's what he wants them to do. Worst case, we see a second round exit to Boston or another elimination at Miami's hands. Unfortunately the second scenario seems more likely.

In order for this best case scenario to come to fruition, so many things have to go right. Some teams may have to lose for the Bulls to get a better matchup (I'm looking at you, Miami.) If there does end up being a Bulls-Heat East Finals, Bosh needs to be invisible while Boozer shines, Noah keeps bringing the energy, Korver keeps shooting lights out, John Lucas becomes this year's Jason Terry (Irrational Confidence guy), and so on and so forth. Realistically, I don't think it's going to happen. But I will support this team on their run however deep they go.

For those of you who want to blame Coach Thibodeau... just stop it. No one on the Bulls is blaming him; heck, everyone came to his defense. Rose missed 27 games this season. He needed to get back in rhythm with his teammates. The only way to do that is to play. He needed to get back into some key situations. His knee injury could have happened at any time. It's a double standard to blame a non-contact injury, something that could have happened at any time during the game, on the coach when said injury could have happened in the 2nd quarter yesterday, or in the opening minutes on Tuesday. There was no way to predict this could have happened. Yes, it follows Murphy's Law, but that's more of a reactive thing than a proactive one. And Derrick certainly isn't blaming his coach. Why should we?

Bulls fans, enjoy the ride as long as we have it this season. Even if the Bulls get knocked out, this group will develop a tough mentality and use this experience for next season. ACL injuries take a while to come back from, plus if Deng decides to have wrist surgery, we're down our top 2 guys. But this is a deep team, and they won't make any excuses. They will do what they can to stay near the top of the East again while their heroes recover. And be ready next spring, because this team isn't going away. Godspeed, Chicago Bulls.

Keep the White Horse in the Stable

I know... I'm infringing on Geoffy's territory. But he hasn't posted yet, and there's no rule that says we can't double up on the biggest game of the season so far.

I missed most of the 1st quarter last night, but caught the end of it on ESPN 1000, plus part of the 2nd quarter until I got home and watched the rest. This game was a phenomenal one (easy for me to say, given the result). We can't confirm anything about the seemingly inevitable playoff matchup between these teams from just this one game, but we did learn a few things about both teams.

I tried to make this a multiple point argument, but I keep coming back to one main point Bill Simmons brought up after the 2011 NBA Finals.

"You can't win with three guys. You need seven, at least, then you need a couple of random Brian Cardinal-type moments every game. That's why Rick Carlisle so pointedly kept mentioning "team basketball" in the postgame presser last night. You need eight or nine guys to come through to win a title. We learn this every spring. And then, we forget it every summer, fall, and winter. The 2010-11 Heat tried to buck the system. Didn't work." [Source]

That was what happened last night. LeBron and Wade combined for 71 of the Heat's 102 points. And yes, James Jones had 2 huge 3's near the end that made it more interesting than I wanted it to be. But Bosh was awful last night (3-15 shooting), and Jones' 2 triples were the only ones he took. As a whole, Miami's bench shot 4-14 (15 points). That's not going to get it done.

On the other hand, the entire Bulls team came ready to play. Deng struggled from the field, but the shots he hit were crucial ones. Watson played nice defense, coming up with a big layup off a steal to stem a Miami run. Noah played great defense, coming up with some key blocks.

But the biggest thing last night was the beloved Bench Mob. Korver brought the hot sauce. Gibson and Asik controlled the paint. Jimmy Butler continues to show promise. But of course, the biggest star last night was John Lucas III.

I wish they had the CSN Chicago feed up when I wrote this. Stacey King went nuts. ("I don't care who you are, LeBron James! You can't stop me! You can't even hope to contain me!") I tweeted that Derrick Rose must have bestowed his "Destroyer of Worlds" powers to John Lucas last night. Something happened where John Lucas just couldn't miss.

The other big numbers? The Bulls won the rebounding battle (50-34). The Bulls had 14 offensive boards leading to 21 2nd chance points. You won't win many games giving a team like the Bulls that many opportunities.

Let's put this game into perspective though. Would the presence of D-Rose have made this game a little more separated? I want to say yes... but I don't know. LeBron would have been on him the whole time and they would have trapped him everywhere. He wouldn't have gotten to attack the way Lucas did. The Bulls also shot 10-19 from deep last night (they were 9-13 at one point). They won't be that hot from deep every night unfortunately. At the same time, it took Dwayne Wade going off in the 4th quarter to get the game that close. I'll be honest. He scares me, but it's hard to go 8-9 from the field in a quarter, and 4-5 from outside the paint. One constant you can figure will still happen is that LeBron will still disappear in the 4th quarter.

Regardless, when these teams meet in the Eastern Conference Finals, we're going to be due for another bloodbath. The Bulls will have a great shot this year at getting over the hump and making the Finals behind the hero known as D-Rose, but he won't be going in alone. He'll have his supporting cast right beside him to help get to the Promised Land.

Cake for a Legend

"When your favorite team lands a transcendent player in your formative years... it really is like winning the lottery." -Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball

I wasn't around in 1984 for what is arguably the biggest draft day steal of all time, or for some of the early moments. But on this day 49 years ago, a boy was born in New York who would be that steal, and over the course of 15 years be cemented as the greatest to ever play the game.

Much like any kid born in Chicagoland in the 80's (I barely made it), if you were into sports, Michael Jordan captured your imagination. My parents had actually moved to the area just in time for MJ's arrival, and a few years later I would be around to only see one year of growing pains before the string of 6 titles. I don't remember any of the first 3-peat seasons, though apparently there is video evidence of me reciting the Bulls starting lineup at age 3 or so (probably why I love being a PA announcer... I miss Ray Clay.)

During the legendary '95-'96 season I was lucky enough that my parents got 3 tickets to a game at the United Center. We sat up in the 300 level behind one of the baskets. April 4, 1996 versus the Miami Heat. The Bulls won 100-92. I know those facts by memory. What I didn't remember until looking it up a couple years ago was that Michael went off for 40 points in that game. I will always treasure that game, even though I don't remember much of it other than the final score. I saw Michael Jordan play in person. I saw him drop 40 in a win.

My memories of that second three-peat are much better. I remember watching Game 6 of both the '96 and '98 Finals in my family room and going nuts after both. I'm not sure what happened in '97 that I missed that ending, because you'd figure I'd remember that one. But '96 was the first title I consciously remember. And what Bulls fan could ever forget The Last Shot?

The NBA hasn't been the same since MJ left. I went to a few other Bulls games in the years since, but it was never the same. There's been a renaissance in recent years with Derrick Rose, but he's nowhere near the level MJ was. No player is. It's my firm belief that no player ever will be. The closest to him among active players right now is Kobe. But even Kobe with his 5 rings has a long way to go to catch him. He's won 2 as the guy in LA, and at his age, I don't know that he could will the Lakers to 4 more. Best post-MJ player for now, though you could make an argument about guys like Shaq or Tim Duncan. We all know LeBron is talented, but is without a ring.

I'm lucky to have been around to see the Greatest of All Time. He gave me and Bulls fans everywhere great memories. As such, it is only fair to wish the legend a happy 49th birthday. If I could arrange it, I'd send him a gift of Bryon Russell so he could hit another jumper over him for old times sake.

A Tale of Two Road Trips

I've been more zeroed in on North Central lately, and not really focused as much on Chicago's two teams taking up residence on the West Side... though that's mostly because they haven't been home lately. It's just been kind of interesting to see how these two squads have spent their road trips going in seemingly opposite directions.

The Bulls have been mostly a joy to watch recently, as I'm sure Geoffy will attest to. You go 6-3 on a road trip, you're in good shape. The bad news is that the Bulls 3 losses came to good teams (Miami, Philly, and Boston). At the same time, you have to take into account that the Bulls have been, like pretty much everyone else, injury ravaged this season. And the scary part is that without some key figures, they're staying competitive with the other contenders in the East. You include Deng in the Miami game, the Bulls probably pull that one out, and with Rose, Boston is likely a win as well. Philly was a little more one-sided, but those losses will happen.

On the positive side, the Bulls are destroying inferior teams, including the NBA record 4 straight road wins by 20 or more. Racking up wins any way you can in this shortened season is a must, and at 23-7, the Bulls are in a great position... especially when you consider that 20 of those 30 games have come on the road. The second half of the season will be more in front of the friendly crowds at the United Center, something Bulls fans should be excited about.

Thank God Derrick Rose doesn't have any structural damage in his back, otherwise the Bulls would have a reason to worry. Until then, I would say let him rest. They're in good shape and don't need to rush him back in the immediate future.

I wish the news were the same for the other tenants of the Madhouse. It's been a rough go the past month or so. After dropping that home-and-home with Nashville into the All Star Break, the Hawks have been killed on this 9 game road trip of theirs, going 0-5-1 so far. And really, there's no one thing that the Hawks can do to get out of the funk. One night, the offense isn't scoring any goals, the next they're giving up 8 points to one guy. I've had the TV on for parts of a couple games on this trip, and I'll be into it a little bit, only to get really frustrated. This team has shown flashes of brilliance mixed with "WTF" moments. Many fans have called for Coach Q's head or Stan Bowman's head, but not a lot of attention has been paid to the players. They're the ones not executing right now.

That being said, all it takes is one good game for guys to get confidence up. Say tomorrow night in Nashville the Hawks only give up a couple goals in tough situations, but manage to score a time or 2 on timely opportunities and possibly steal one from a division rival. A win can cure everything, but even a tough loss where the team plays well can ignite a fire under the other guys.

I saw a status on Facebook from a guy I went to college with who's a hockey player and a big Hawks fan, and he reminded Hawks fans that this team lost 7 of 9 games in March of 2010... and we all know what happened that season. Granted, the rosters are totally different, but all you need to do is get into the tournament. Once there, anything can happen.

These two teams are going in different directions now, it seems. But both of these teams will play prominently when 30 competing teams get whittled down to 16.

Express NBA Preview

I say "express" because I don't want to take up a whole wall of text with all 30 teams. It's hard to come up with the teams that matter, so what I figured I'd do is narrow it down to the 7 teams who have even a remote shot at the title with a quick blurb about each. Should work well enough.

THE FAVORITES

-Chicago Bulls: I know it's presumptuous and possibly biased, but everyone knows that they're one of the major contenders this year. They addressed the need for another scorer while keeping their depth intact. If Boozer and Noah can stay healthy all year and Rose keeps making leap after leap, Grant Park could see another title rally.
Title Chances: 15 percent (40 percent EC Champions)

 -Dallas Mavericks: Can't exclude the defending champs. Dirk became a winner with other guys stepping up big time. But this year it'll be Brenden Haywood who will need to step up and fill the void left by Tyson Chandler. The champions will be the champions until someone knocks them off. Keep an eye on them.
Title Chances: 20 percent (40 percent WC Champions)


-Miami Heat: Last year's Eastern Conference champions still have the best trio of teammates in the league. After that... not so much. I'll ignore the possible problem at the point in favor of the big problem at center. Miami tries to upgrade from Joel Anthony with... Eddy Curry? He'll average 4 points, 3 rebounds, and 17 cheeseburgers per game. Even so, these guys will give you hell in the playoffs.
Title Chances: 20 percent (45 percent EC Champions)




-Oklahoma City Thunder: My most intriguing team in the bunch returns nearly everyone from last year's squad that made the conference finals. Another year of experience for Durant and Westbrook will help immensely, but so will a full year with Kendrick Perkins. He's not an elite center, but plays hard and will defend the rim, making the Thunder a tough out. No huge additions to the roster, but once again not a team you want to see in the playoffs.
Title Chances: 25 percent (45 percent WC Champs)



SLEEPERS

-Boston Celtics: Bill Simmons said it best. After the Big 4, the best players in green are Brandon Bass and Jermaine O'Neal. Ouch. You can't count out veteran guile and experience from Garnett, Allen and Pierce, but their window is clearly closing without much help behind them. If they manage a 6 seed at worst, they can maybe sneak in one more title.
Title Chances: 5 percent (15 percent EC Champions)

-Los Angeles Lakers: Oy vey. A terrible offseason and Kobe with a hurt wrist? It sounds like he thinks he'll be fine, but with failing knees and so many games played, his window is closing. Losing Odom was huge, but with Gasol still in house and assuming Bynum stays healthy, you can't count #24 and company out.
Title Chances: 10 percent (10 percent WC Champions)

 -San Antonio Spurs: Tim Duncan is still a winner, but he's 35. Manu is 34. Richard Jefferson is 31. They're not getting any younger, but they know the road to a title. Last year they were one of the top teams in the West still, and figure to be in the picture again, but probably not for much longer.
Title Chances: 5 percent (5 percent WC Champions)



I could probably also throw teams like New York, Indiana, Atlanta or Memphis in there, but they'd probably be a second round out (albeit a tough one). These are the 7 most likely squads to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy, but I'm leaning towards one of the first 4. My guess would be OKC over Miami, which I'd be okay with, but I'm definitely hoping to see D-Rose and company raise a 7th banner to the United Center rafters.