2017 Stanley Cup Final Prediction

Three rounds and 14 series have all come down to this. Only two teams remain in the battle for the greatest trophy in all of sports. Even though my emotional investment vanished a month ago, I've still be curious to see how the postseason would unfold, and here we are. The Stanley Cup Final. One final time this year, let's take a look at the matchup.

2016 Stanley Cup Final Preview

I lost track of the second round playoff series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, so I forgot to get a post in for the conference finals. Fortunately, I have plenty of time to get the Cup Final prediction in.

After the first round, we lost our last four Cup winners, as well as five of the last six, with a guarantee that we'll have a team that hasn't won a Cup since as far back as 2009. It's an interesting new matchup that, even if may not be a sexy ratings pick, is a compelling storyline and will be a series between two very, very good teams that deserve to be here.

Stanley Cup Final

San Jose Sharks (46-30-6, Beat Kings in five, beat Predators in seven, beat Blues in six) vs Pittsburgh Penguins (48-26-8, Beat Rangers in five, beat Capitals in six, beat Lightning in seven)
Teams each won 1 of 2 regular season meetings

Photo by Rocky W. Widner (NHL/Getty Images)

The Penguins have been a league darling for a decade straight now, but haven't made much postseason noise, making just their third Cup Final in that stretch and their first since they won the Cup in 2009. They take on a Sharks team that is making its first ever trip to the final round after years of missed opportunities. Pittsburgh has been fairly balanced in its scoring, with eight players recording at least 10 points through three rounds. Phil Kessel leads the team in goals (nine) and points (18), while media darling Sidney Crosby has played very well to the tune of six goals and nine assists, though he is a -2. They're getting a little thin on defense, with Trevor Daley out now, but young goaltender Matt Murray has been phenomenal with a .924 save percentage and a 2.22 goals against average. On the other end, Martin Jones has played incredibly well as well, with a slightly worse save percentage (.919) but a better goals against average (2.12). San Jose's offense has been more potent, with Logan Couture (eight goals, 16 assists) and Joe Pavelski (13 goals, nine assists) leading the charge, and an excellent defensive group with only two skaters logging a negative plus/minus. Brent Burns is +8 so far, while Marc-Edouard Vlasic is a team-high +13. They're going to need to be on their game all the more against a star studded Pittsburgh attack.

My heart wants to take the Sharks here, because I can't stand the lovefest for Sidney Crosby who has done nothing in the Kane-Toews-Keith-Q Dynasty and also because they saved the black cat that scrambled onto the ice during Game 1 against Nashville and found her a forever home. My head is initially leaning Pittsburgh because Crosby and company seem to have finally figured things out after six years of playoff disappointment that had featured only one trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. With their issues of defensive depth against a ferocious attack though, I'm thinking I should switch sides. It's going to be a long, hard-fought series, but at the end of the day, give me the newcomers and the debate of who Pavelski hands the Cup to first: Patrick Marleau or Joe Thornton. Sharks in seven.

Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Joe Pavelski, Sharks

2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs Second Round Preview

I don't think I needed the couple days to digest the Hawks falling short in Game 7 against St. Louis. It's a bummer and a disappointment, but the Blues are a very good team, and they earned their first trip to the second round under Ken Hitchcock. I tip my cap.

I ended up doing a terrible job overall predicting the first round this year, and the scheduling weirdness means that this is getting posted after the second round gets underway. But in the interest of full disclosure, I wrote my preview for the one game taking place on Wednesday of the second round in advance, because I had to wait for the Game 7 between Nashville and Anaheim to be played out to fully preview this round.

With a (somewhat) heavy heart, I soldier on. Here are my predictions for the next round.

2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs First Round Preview

We're onto one of the most fun times of the year, but also one of the most gut wrenching. The Stanley Cup Playoffs are a wonderful two month stretch of the best hockey of the year.

16 teams have survived the 82 game grind to reach this point, but only one will be hoisting Lord Stanley in June, and they have to win four best-of-sevens to get there. There's a reason many call the Cup the toughest trophy in all of sports to win.

So like I did last year, I am going to go into each round and try to predict a winner. I'm actually going to try and do a little analysis this time as well, and I will close this post out with my prediction for the Stanley Cup Final going into the playoffs as well.

Let's start with the obvious one.

One Goal Achieved

In 2010, I finished a swim between the third period and overtime of a hockey game played in Philadelphia and got out in time to see confusion from everyone except Patrick Kane as the Chicago Blackhawks won the Stanley Cup for the first time in 49 years. In 2013, I watched much of a sixth game played in Boston with Kristen at her parents' house, left late in the third period, and got to listen to 17 seconds before making it home in time to watch the final minute. In 2015, Kristen and I went out to hopefully watch history unfold... And it didn't disappoint.

Victory lap by @kkmitzel moments ago #ONEGOAL #LetsGoHawks @NHLBlackhawks pic.twitter.com/YvCBDMUCsk

— Lucas Mitzel (@northsider89) June 16, 2015

Two months ago 16 teams began a journey for a legendary trophy. I went round by round and somehow only missed a single series prediction (Rangers over Caps) while getting to watch a lot of great hockey. Of course, like the last one, it wasn't easy.

There are, of course, plenty of moments that I'll end up throwing together into a YouTube playlist from this run. The classless policies of the Nashville Predators' ticket office drew the ire of Chicago, and they overcame a 3-0 first period deficit to win deep into the night. After Crawford got benched for the second time, concern rose, but the Hawks took care of business at home, including Brent Seabrook adding to his legend of overtime heroics. Finally, Crawford came back to relieve Scott Darling in a Game 6 clincher and the Hawks showed Nashville how a real hockey franchise operates. Hearing from Minnesota Wild fans sing the eternal praises of their deadline hero Devan Dubnyk did cause some concern, and yet the Hawks made it look like child's play. Then there were the Ducks. I kept it civil with KTLA's Tim Lynn, their helicopter reporter and avid Duck fan, even after the chaos of a bad Game 1 loss. I slept through the end of Game 2, missing out on Andrew Shaw's audition for the Chicago Fire and Marcus Kruger's heroics. I stayed up late for Game 4 to see deadline deal Antoine Vermette become a hero in Game 4. After losing a game in a series tied 2-2 for the first time in the era, I watched the Game 6 onslaught in the second period, and the total domination in Game 7 to send the goons Corey Perry and Ryan Kesler home sad.

This Tampa series though... man. I knew they were fast, and I figured they'd look insurmountable at times, but holy crap. They're a good hockey team. I wouldn't be surprised to see them win a Cup in the next couple years. They have a lot of firepower, good defense, and a good goaltender. Like Nashville though, I didn't like their ticket policies either, so there's a sense of justice in this win. Even so, what a series. Kristen went to bed early on the night of Game 1, but I stayed up to watch Teravainen and Vermette steal the Game 1 win. Games 2 and 3 were frustrating as the Hawks gave up third period goals to drop both, but Crawford was phenomenal in the final three games, and the Hawks' offense did just enough.

Last night though was fantastic. I was feeling it all day; I didn't want to get overconfident, but this Hawks team knows how to close out a series, and they had a chance to win on home ice. They didn't waste it. Crawford was absolutely phenomenal, but the bar was on edge all evening until finally Keith broke through.

People felt better, but with as tight a series as this was, we were all still nervous as the third period moved on. Time moves agonizingly slow in situations like this, but it felt so much better once Showtime broke through for the insurance tally.

Kristen couldn't have been happier. I've mentioned on here that she's not much of a sports nut, but the Hawks are the exception. That made last night all the more worth it. We got to celebrate, do a victory lap together around the bar with the Cup when time expired, and I feel like we were the most popular people in the bar afterwards, as everyone wanted to take a picture with our inflatable Cup. Kristen joked that we should have charged a dollar to everyone who wanted one.

These are the experiences you remember and take with you for a long time. And now, the morning after, the city continues to celebrate not just a championship... but a dynasty.

That last point is a little tricky, and in my running-on-four-hours-of-sleep state, needed a little thinking. The argument could go that calling this Hawks team a dynasty cheapens the word. That may be true, but sports have changed in the last few decades. The NHL has a salary cap now, and it's impossible to keep together full groups like the old Canadiens, the early 80's Islanders, or Gretzky's Oilers. Factoring that in, this Hawks team has to be a modern dynasty. The Red Wings had a "three Cups in six years" stretch, but the salary cap didn't exist yet. Now that it does, we've seen what's happened to the Hawks following their first two Cups and what is almost certain to happen after this one. To lost so many pieces of your team, and still be back year after year is amazing. This is a dynasty. And the best part? It's only just beginning.

2015 Stanley Cup Finals Preview

It's June of 2015, good has triumphed over evil, and there's a potential dynasty in the making.

By Game 7 fortunes, I was able to nail down the matchup of the 2015 Stanley Cup Final. We are thus rewarded with a treat of a matchup between two highly skilled teams that both had to overcome some hurdles to get to hockey's biggest stage.

Many people predicted this matchup a month and a half ago (myself included on the NHL's Bracket Challenge)... now it's here! Let's dig into it.

Chicago Blackhawks (beat ANA in seven) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (beat NYR in seven)
Teams split their season series (Blackhawks won in a shootout)

First, a little history. The Lightning have been in the NHL since the 1992-93 season. Much of their history is forgettable, as a majority of their time in the league hasn't resulted in a playoff berth. However, they had a magical 2003-04 season when they won the Stanley Cup, and in recent years, they have been building a young core reminiscent of that in Chicago in the latter part of the last decade and have the right structure in place to get here. They face the old guard, a Blackhawks team that has made the Western Conference Finals five times in the last seven years, now in their third Cup Final, with the honor of lifting Lord Stanley twice in that span.

Both teams had a difficult road to get this far. Tampa struggled in the first round against an always tough Detroit team, but were able to pull out a Game 7 win to advance. They then were able to knock out two of the best goaltenders in the league in Montreal's Carey Price and New York's Henrik Lundqvist, at times making both look like minor leaguers with barrages of goals. The Blackhawks, meanwhile, overcame an early 3-0 deficit in their first playoff game as well as a goalie controversy to knock out Nashville in six games, got a surprising sweep of the Minnesota Wild to shut up all the talk about Devan Dubnyk, then despite relying heavily on their top four defensemen, outlasting a physical (sometimes to the point of dirty) Ducks team to become the third straight team to eliminate them in Anaheim in Game 7 after the Ducks led the series three games to two.

I had mentioned before the last round about the early struggles of Steven Stamkos, who failed to score in the first eight games of the playoffs, and having just three through two rounds. He added four goals and three assists to bring his playoff point total to 17 for the year... and that's only the third best mark on the squad. Tyler Johnson continues his hot play (12 goals and nine assists in 20 games), while his mates on the "Triplets Line" have also excelled: Nikita Kucherov has 19 points (nine goals and 10 assists) and Ondrej Palat has 15 (seven goals and eight assists). Stamkos has no slouches as his linemates either, with Valtteri Filppula and Alex Killorn are also in double figures. They also boast an elite defenseman in Victor Hedman, who has ten points and is a +11 for the playoffs. Goaltender Ben Bishop struggled a bit against the Rangers, seeing his save percentage drop to a .920, but he's allowing just a 2.15 goals against average, so he has been very, very good.

It's fun to see those numbers, because the Blackhawks are pretty similar. Chicago also has seven skaters with at least 10 points on the playoffs, only they are led by the guy you expect to lead them. Patrick Kane struggled a bit early in the Ducks series, but came alive as the series went deeper, and his 10 goals and 10 assists give him 20 points to lead the way. Jonathan Toews hasn't always scored goals with regularity in the playoffs, but he has nine to go along with nine assists to tie for second. Those are the bulk goal-scorers, though Brandon Saad picked up the pace a little bit against Anaheim with his breakaway speed leading to a couple big early goals in Chicago wins. In something of a "desperation mode", Joel Quenneville made these guys the top line for the final two games, and they did not disappoint, destroying Anaheim's top line. The bigger talk for Chicago has been its defense, in particular Duncan Keith, who leads all defensemen with 18 playoff points (including 16 assists) and a whopping +13 while logging copious minutes. Brent Seabrook has also been his usual effective self (six goals, four assists, +6). Meanwhile, after the first round hiccups, Corey Crawford has returned to his solid form with a .919 save percentage, even though his goals against average is still kind of high at 2.56.

Both teams boast great speed and elite scorers, so both Bishop and Crawford may see their numbers decline a bit. The Blackhawks have faced some tough offenses (Anaheim in particular), though it could be argued that Tampa is better. Meanwhile, the Lightning really haven't faced the kind of offensive threat that the Hawks can bring to the table. To reverse it though, the Hawks still have some concerns with defensive depth. Their top four of Keith, Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Johnny Oduya have played a ton of minutes to cover up the rotating cast at five and six. Kyle Cumiskey did well in limited time in the last six games, and Quenneville replaced veteran Kimmo Timonen, who looked lost and out of shape at times with David Rundblad for the final two games (though Rundblad dressed for Game 1 to replace the injured Michal Rozsival). Even as a Hawks fan, I have to wonder how much the Hawks defense has left in the tank, though Duncan Keith is clearly some sort of cyborg sent to secure the dynasty's place in history. That lack of defensive depth is still a concern, especially against a team like the Lightning who can score at will. Going the other way though, most of this core for the Lightning haven't been to this stage before (there are a few former Rangers who played in last year's Cup Final, and Filppula won the Cup with Detroit some time back), and they're going against a proven champion who has already shown resiliency night in and night out.

The Lightning will give the Hawks some fits. But ultimately, I think there's too much experience for the Hawks. Bishop has had some off games, something he can't afford to do against an offense of this level. We'll probably see at least a couple overtime games, because that's what happens this time of year, and the Lightning will look great, if not insurmountable at times. However, I refuse to count out the heart of a champion. Make it three in six years, and this time... the party can kick off at the Madhouse with 22,000-plus delirious fans screaming in delight as The Captain hoists the toughest trophy in all of sports to win. Blackhawks in six.

Bring Me My Cup

I watched a vast majority of last night's Game 6 from my fiancée Kristen's house in Naperville last night and was facing the difficult decision: when do I head for home? Ultimately there was a stoppage in play about halfway through the third period when I decided I needed to head home, what with having to work this morning.

Of course, I found a way to regret that decision. It's a 20 minute drive from her house to mine which I hoped would be enough, given media timeouts and what have you, and boy, that 20 minute drive was a roller coaster ride. Disappointment hit me when Lucic scored that go ahead goal, and I was mentally going so far as to try and figure out Wednesday plans for watching the game.

Of course, I was still driving when everything turned. I was a couple minutes away from home, about to turn into my neighborhood when Bryan Bickell saved the day. Yelling and fist pumping ensued as I drove on. I was down the street from my house when Dave Bolland put home the winning tally as I felt pure elation. More fist pumps, more happy yelling ensued. Needless to say, I made sure I was going to get in my house for the final minute. I wasn't going to miss that.

Photo by Greg Cooper, USA Today Sports

Chicagoans undoubtedly know by now the history of this storied franchise and the dark era the team went through for much of my formative years under Dollar Bill Wirtz and the subsequent resurgence since his passing and the takeover by his son. Changes were promptly made and suddenly the Blackhawks were a draw again. Long lost fans made their way back to join the die-hards and brought a new generation of fans with them, and it all culminated in that 2010 Cup win.

For me though, this Cup win is different. I was a late bloomer on the Blackhawks, joining the ranks of the fanbase during the rebirth, and I was thrilled about that first Cup win, but that one might have been more about exorcising old demons than anything else. But it also brought passion and joy to a title-starved city, and hooked a lot of us who were newer fans to the sport and the team.

After that Cup win, we really cared. We followed the team through a fire sale of key pieces they could no longer afford then watching them squeak into the playoffs and nearly make a glorious comeback to end all glorious comebacks against Vancouver with nowhere near as good a team as was constructed the year before. We suffered through Mike Smith being a scumbag and Raffi Torres forever sealing his fate as one of the most hated athletes in Chicago history. We suffered through that lockout, not knowing if we'd even see any hockey this year while I offered my fiancée's cousin Gary Bettman's head on a silver platter.

This year's Hawks team made everyone seemingly forget about all of that. They tore through the first half of the season while I made jokes about not knowing what a regulation loss was. Kristen and I finally got to experience the best draw in the city in person, joining her cousin for a late regular season game at the Madhouse. Suddenly Kristen, who was never much of a sports fan, cared. She caught onto the rules and flow of hockey and was hooked. I was happy to be hooked back in with her.

Obligatory billboard shot on my way into work

All the emotions we went through on this run made winning the Stanley Cup this year more meaningful for me. Watching Bryan Bickell backhand home the overtime winner against Minnesota to start the run. The dark, somber mood at Kristen's cousin's house as Detroit took a commanding lead giving way to me cutting off a conversation on the phone with my brother with screams of joy as Brent Seabrook banished Detroit to the East days later. Resisting the urge to trash talk to KTLA's traffic reporter as the Hawks made Jonathan Quick look human and Hatrick Kane sent the team back to the Finals. Staying up late into the night to see why Andrew Shaw loves shin pads. And last night: enjoying the rewards of sticking with this team as they hoist the best trophy in all of sports.

I'm wearing a Hawks shirt to work today. Given the party that this city is probably still going through, I think it's fitting. My Hawks are Cup champions. Fellow Hawks fans, let's enjoy this one.

Let Her Dance With Me Just For the Hell of It

I found a little time between readjusting my sleep schedule and being reminded how people in Los Angeles don't know how to drive to come back to writing. The Cubs are on pace for 121 losses, Knick fans are having delusions of grandeur after beating the Bulls at MSG on Sunday, but we're about to start one of the toughest playoff gauntlets in all of sports in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

I've watched decent chunks of a few Hawks games this year, usually seeing them get beat either in overtime or shoot outs for some reason this season. But once you start the round of 16, this team will always be a tough out.

In the grand scheme of things, the Hawks should be glad they went to overtime against Detroit on Saturday. They were going on the road regardless of what happened in that last game, and I'd rather see Phoenix than Nashville.

To be fair, the Coyotes do have some talented players in guys like Ray Whitney (77 points) and Shane Doan (50), plus probably the best goaltender in this series in Mike Smith (38 wins, .930 save pct., 2.21 GAA).

Phoenix, however, has been a first round out each of the last couple years, and the 2010 champs are not to be taken lightly. Yes, Phoenix will have home ice, but the Hawks have proves they can win on the road when the situation calls for it. No one is certain yet, but by many accounts Jonathan Toews will be back from his injury, and this team has been better since the Johnny Oduya trade. The Hawks will also have a healthy Dave Bolland for a full series unlike last year.

I'm thinking Hawks in 6 to give Phoenix some credit, but this is the matchup Chicago wanted. This allows Detroit and Nashville to beat up on each other while the chalk plays out so St. Louis can get the Red Wing/Predator winner and the Hawks get the seemingly inevitable matchup with the evil Vancouver Canucks.