2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 12 Edition

We're about two or three hours ahead of the committee, even with a day delay.

The Committee and I diverged a little bit with our rankings last week, as they overcame any signs of SEC bias and gave TCU the fourth spot. I have no love for the SEC, but based on every metric, save Non Conference Schedule Strength (because the SEC are a bunch of pansies who think I'm too stupid to argue with their "Our schedule is so tough, we need the late FCS games!" argument), the SEC is the best conference. Looking at our Playoff Points metric this week proved it.

We'll use those, plus some other metrics to fill out the 16-team field. Each of the ten FBS conferences will have its champion automatically in, while the rest of the field is filled by at large teams. To figure out who's in, we use Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) to loosely determine whose schedules have been tougher. To a greater degree, I use the aforementioned Playoff Points (PP1 and PP2) metrics to see who each team has beaten and figure out how good they really are. To keep the field from being dominated too much by any bias I may have, I also use computer rankings derived from formulas created by Jeff Sagarin (SAG) and the late David Rothman (ROTH).

Let's see how the playoffs would shake out if the season ended today.

1. Alabama (9-1, SEC "Champion"): NCSS- 4, PP1- 50, PP2- 23.9, ROTH- 1, SAG- 1 (LW: 4)  
2. Florida State (10-0, ACC "Champion"): NCSS- 2, PP1- 47, PP2- 17.4, ROTH- 9, SAG- 15 (LW: 2) 
3. Ohio State (9-1, Big Ten "Champion"): NCSS- 6, PP1- 49, PP2- 21.6, ROTH- 14, SAG- 10 (LW: 9) 
4. Oregon (9-1, Pac 12 "Champion"): NCSS- 2, PP1- 46, PP2- 21.0, ROTH- 6, SAG- 5 (LW: 3)
5. Mississippi State (9-1, At Large): NCSS- 3, PP1- 45, PP2- 19.6, ROTH- 2, SAG- 8 (LW: 1) 
6. Ole Miss (8-2, At Large): NCSS- 2, PP1- 46, PP2- 24.1, ROTH- 3, SAG- 2 (LW: 7)  
7. UCLA (8-2, At Large): NCSS- 6, PP1- 46, PP2- 20.4, ROTH- 15, SAG- 16 (LW: 5) 
8. Marshall (10-0, Conference USA "Champion"): NCSS- 4, PP1- 36, PP2- 10.1, ROTH- 17, SAG- 33 (LW: 8) 
9. Georgia (8-2, At Large): NCSS- 3, PP1- 43, PP2- 22.8, ROTH- 8, SAG- 3 (LW: NR)
10. Baylor (8-1, At Large): NCSS- 2, PP1- 31, PP2- 14.9, ROTH- 5, SAG- 4 (LW: 11)
11. TCU (9-1, Big 12 "Champion"): NCSS- 3, PP1- 38, PP2- 15.7, ROTH- 4, SAG- 7 (LW: 12)
12. Boise State (8-2, At Large): NCSS- 6, PP1- 42, PP2- 16.8, ROTH- 35, SAG- 39 (LW: NR)
13. Colorado State (9-1, Mountain West "Champion"): NCSS- 5, PP1- 34, PP2- 12.0, ROTH- 36, SAG- 50 (LW- 10) 
14. Memphis (7-3, American Athletic "Champion"): NCSS- 6, PP1- 21, PP2- 8.7, ROTH- 49, SAG- 43 (LW: 14)
15. Northern Illinois (8-2, MAC "Champion"): NCSS- 7, PP1- 20, PP2- 8.5, ROTH- 72, SAG- 87 (LW: NR)
16. Georgia Southern (8-3, Sun Belt "Champion"): NCSS- 7, PP1- 23, PP2- 5.5, ROTH- 84, SAG- 83 (LW: 16) 

Out of the playoffs: Auburn (6), Arizona State (13), Toledo (15).

Photo by Fred Mitchell (Chicago Tribune)

We only ended up losing a couple conference "champions" this week. NIU beat Toledo last Tuesday, creating a three-way tie atop the MAC West, and according to ESPN, NIU has the tiebreaker, though they also have the best overall record in the MAC. Boise State and Utah State created a three-way tie with Colorado State in the Mountain West Mountain Division, and the Rams win the tiebreaker. Alabama's win over Mississippi State gives them the best record in the SEC West, and the overall record being tied goes the way of the Tide. Bama's nation-leading 50 PP1 gives them the top overall seed ahead of FSU, who hasn't really played anyone out of conference and has lower computer rankings.

I feel bad dropping Oregon a bit just by being idle, but Ohio State passed them in PP1 with their win over Minnesota, and the distinction earns them a pair of home games. The two Mississippi schools have fallen a bit, but their high Playoff Point totals combined with excellent computer scores puts them right outside earning second home games. Originally I had Ole Miss seeded 5th, but that would set up a rematch with Boise State. Ultimately, I want to avoid rematches if it can be helped, and Mississippi State is so close (plus is 9-1) I swapped them to avoid it. UCLA remains right up there in Playoff Points, and undefeated Marshall deserves a home game for being undefeated.

Photo from USA TODAY Sports (No photographer credited)

From there, I bumped Auburn out of the playoffs for having three losses (I can't do it; not with this many two-loss teams). Georgia ended up taking their place, given their high overall numbers (plus the head to head win on Saturday). Baylor's bye temporarily gave TCU the Big XII title, but Baylor still holds that tiebreaker, so they get the spot ahead of the Horned Frogs. The final at large spot was a tough decision between incumbent Arizona State, and fellow two-loss teams Georgia Tech and Boise State. Tech's two losses are to non-playoff teams, which knocked them out. The Sun Devils and Broncos both lost to a playoff team, but ASU's loss came at home. That, combined with the Broncos' higher PP1 gave them the final spot.

Overall, I'm very happy with how this bracket turned out. I know a lot of people would accuse me of being a hack for including four SEC teams here, but even with the bias present, you can't deny how good the top of the conference is. This will just make it all the more infuriating tomorrow when I take a look at the schedule for the upcoming week, in particular focusing on the non-conference slate. You should know what's coming if you've been reading COAS for a while.