Game Notes: UW-Platteville @ North Central College (11/29/16)

Final Score
UW-Platteville 57, NCC 40

Game Summary
This was a tough matchup from the outset, but the Cardinals (3-1) were able to open up a 10-5 lead in the early going. The Pioneers (5-1) clamped down on defense and got their offense rolling though, exploding for a 22-4 run over the next ten minutes to take complete control of the game. North Central recovered a little bit and got a three at the buzzer to make it 31-24 heading into the break. Coach Raridon lit into his team in the locker room, and they responded in the first couple minutes, scoring five points on their first two possessions and were able to tie the game at 35 with about 12 minutes to play. But the Pioneers answered immediately to retake the lead, then got a three point play to extend the lead to five. A North Central bucket cut it to three, and the Pioneers responded with nine straight points before an NCC three with 6:35 to play marked the last points of the night the Cardinals would muster.

Key Stats

• NCC: 16-55 FG (29.1%). The Pioneers came into this game holding opponents to under 40 percent shooting from the floor, and under 30 percent from deep. They seemed to be everywhere in their 2-3 zone last night and forced some tough shots, but the Cardinals were just as guilty for this. They had a lot of terrible possessions where they just passed the ball around the perimeter and no one tried to go create a shot until the shot clock was nearly out. They've done this for a chunk of the season to date, but it hadn't cost them until last night.
• Robert Duax (UWP): 4-8 FG (2-3 3PT), 5-7 FT; 15 pts, 9 reb (1 off), 3 ast, 1 blk, 3 stl. Duax was Platteville's best player coming in, and he sure played like it in this one. Giving up nine rebounds to an opponent is one thing, but to one of their guards? Even if he's one of their leading rebounders, this is an embarrassing total to allow.
• Alex Sorenson/Connor Raridon: 10-30 FG (2-10 3PT), 3-6 FT; 25 pts, 15 reb (3 off), 5 ast, 4 blk, 2 stl. This... is not ideal. Connor was repeatedly forced into tough fallaway shots all night, and Alex took seven threes, only hitting one. Part of that was a credit to the Pioneer defense for locking down the inside, but you need your best guys to play better than this if you want to win.

Final Thoughts
I don't know how well you'll be able to hear it on the video above, but Todd Raridon's voice was shot in the second half. He could be heard outside the locker room at halftime, he was that upset about what transpired in the first half. To the Cardinals' credit, the team responded early in the second half, but that energy only lasts so long.

All in all, this was an embarrassing loss. You're at home, you're ranked sixth in the country, and you're hosting a team you blew out by 30 at their place last year. This shouldn't happen. The thought I had right at the end last night was that this was a trap game. And the Pioneers sprung the trap perfectly.

I don't want to overreact to this loss too much; it's one game, and one game doesn't define a season. But if the Cardinals play like this against Illinois Wesleyan on Saturday, they're going to lose by at least 30. Hopefully they play sufficiently motivated and angry in that one.

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Automatic Bid Games

Tuesday is normally my day of looking at NCSS rankings for college football. But at this point, we are done with all non-conference games, and this coming week is the slowest week in terms of college football games. However, this is a critical week for the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

Of our ten conferences at the FBS level, eight of them are large enough to accommodate conference championship games (and we'll have a ninth next year because the morons running the Big 12 decided to invalidate the regular season with one in a ten-team conference). The winners of seven of these games will receive automatic bids to the Death to the BCS Playoffs. The Big 12 doesn't have an official title game yet, but has a de facto one this year. And finally, the Sun Belt has a couple games that will impact the playoff picture.

So below, I will outline every game that impacts these automatic bids and how they play out with regards to the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 13 Mock Bracket

And now we get down to the nitty gritty.


I'm still in a state of mourning, but I'll get over it. Wheaton deserved its win on Saturday. And so did all of the teams who won this past weekend as the Death to the BCS Playoff race gets even more complicated.

If you're unfamiliar with how this works, the Death to the BCS Playoffs are the brainchild of Yahoo! writers Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan. They created a 16 team playoff at the highest level of college football, where all conference champions get an automatic bid, and the rest of the field is filled with at large teams. Those auto bids will all be settled next week: eight conference have a conference championship game, the Big 12 has a de facto championship game based on how the schedule aligned, and the Sun Belt will come down to a couple games and some tiebreakers to determine its champion.

From there, the field gets seeded from 1 to 16, with home field advantage going to the higher seeds for the first three rounds. This means finishing in the top two will net you three home games, a #3 or #4 seeds gets you a pair, and finishing in the top eight gives you one in the first round. These figures all assume, of course, that chalk gets rocked. But how do we decide the seeding? Wetzel, Peter, and Passan's idea was for a selection committee to do so, but in my case, I do it myself with the help of some metrics. I use (to an extent) Non Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP), as well as computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These metrics all organically combine to build the exact playoff field.

And so, for the final time this season: let's create a mock bracket.

2016 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 13

Welp, just when we think things are pretty set, more chaos unfolds.

I'm also in mourning today as North Central lost to archrival Wheaton in the second round of the D-III Playoffs on Saturday. Never has holding onto the Little Brass Bell felt so hollow.

I imagine most of the rankings compared to last week are going to remain the same, with maybe some minor changes here and there. If you need a refresher on how these metrics work, you can view those in my season introduction post.

Let's check the numbers.

Game Notes: Aurora University @ North Central College (11/25/16)

Final Score
NCC 88, Aurora 78

Game Summary
This was a pretty tough game the whole way as the Cardinals (3-0) got out to an early lead, but a 7-0 Spartans (2-2) run gave Aurora the lead. The Cardinals battled back with a 10-0 run of their own to regain control and would lead by as many as 16 before ultimately taking a 47-37 lead into the break. The Spartans came out firing in the second half, cutting the lead down to three points early, but North Central answered with key baskets. The Spartans didn't give up, narrowing the lead to five with a little over seven minutes left, but the Cardinals held onto the ball for a minute and a half before getting a couple free throws, picked up a steal, and got a three to reopen the lead to 10. Aurora would get no closer than eight the rest of the way as the Cardinals picked up their third straight win and avenged last year's loss.

Key Stats

• Connor Raridon (NCC): 8-14 FG (1-3 3PT), 6-9 FT; 24 pts, 3 reb (2 off), 9 ast, 1 blk, 2 stl. Todd Raridon has been riding his youngest son the last couple games, as Connor never left the floor on Friday. But he was phenomenal on offense, doing a lot of driving and fading away, but he also did a great job down low and distributing the ball. He looked possibly a little winded late in the game when he was missing free throws, but he played well again.
• Aiden Chang (NCC): 6-10 FG (3-5 3PT), 4-4 FT; 19 pts, 1 reb, 3 ast, 2 blk. Aiden had arguably the best game of his career on Friday. His 19 points are a career high, and he came up with a few huge buckets. His old fashioned three point play capped North Central's 10-0 run in the first half, and he followed that up on the next possession with a four point play. He's really developing into a great player.
• Aurora: 13-27 3PT (48.1%). As I was getting ready at Merner on Friday and looking over Aurora's stats, one thing caught my eye: this team can shoot. They were at 39-93 coming into this contest, good for a 41.9 percent clip. They eclipsed that in this game, as those threes are by and large what kept them in the game. Pat Kramp hit five of his six threes, and Ty Carlson added four on six attempts.

Final Thoughts
I definitely thought North Central was the better team in this one, and the argument was made that it shouldn't have been this close. The Cardinals won the rebounding battle 43-23 and shot 54.2 percent from the floor. But they let Aurora stay close thanks to their hot shooting, which isn't the greatest of signs, but it's still early in the season.

I was a little embarrassed by the perceived "home court advantage" in this one, as many Aurora faithful made the short trek to Naperville for this contest. This is a good thing for the sport, but they were very loud... significantly louder than the North Central faithful in attendance. Granted, this was a Black Friday game, but I was not encouraged by this. Hopefully conference play will be better.

Maybe the best part of this contest came right at the end. Multiple players dove for a loose ball along Aurora's bench and took out head coach Lance Robinson as well as pretty much completely destroying his chair. I didn't get a chance to take a picture of it, but one of the legs was completely bent out of shape. All parties involved were all right, which is the most important thing.

This was the second game of a five game home stand for the Cardinals. They return to action on Tuesday as they welcome in Wisconsin-Platteville for a 7:00 tip.

Game Notes: Alma College @ North Central College (11/23/16)

Final Score
NCC 78, Alma 59

Game Summary
This was a tight game early on as the Scots (1-3) took the early lead and traded baskets. The Cardinals (2-0) then embarked on a 13-0 run to take firm control of the ball game. The Scots did manage to keep it around that 10-12 point range for a decent amount of the half and even cut the lead to eight with about two minutes to go, but the Cardinals scored the half's final seven points to make it 43-28 at the break. Alma would get no closer than 14 in the second half, and North Central was able to send in the end of the bench for the final 110 seconds of the contest.

Key Stats

• Connor Raridon (NCC): 10-13 FG (3-4 3PT), 1-2 FT; 24 pts, 10 reb (1 off), 6 ast, 1 blk, 1 stl. Connor's fifth career double double was a pretty efficient one, as he shot very well and had a great floor game. He commanded the boards well, distributed the ball well as the game went on, and played 37 minutes including some time bringing the ball up.
• Alex Sorenson (NCC): 7-15 FG (2-6 3PT), 0-1 FT; 16 pts, 7 reb (2 off), 2 ast, 2 stl. Kristen came to this game and noted that Alex played really well. He put up these numbers in just 25 minutes of action, which is pretty impressive. Given the lead he was able to sit for most of the second half to get Jack Bronec and Sam Fehrle some minutes, which was good. Alex struggled from deep a little bit, but he'll hit those shots when he needs to.
• Trevor Gernaat (ALMA): 2-8 FG (2-6 3PT), 2-2 FT; 8 pts, 5 reb, 3 ast. Gernaat was the guy I was most worried about in this one having looked at the numbers. But the Cardinals did a great job keeping him in check tonight. He hit a couple threes, but the team as a whole shot just 27.3 percent from deep, with Gernaat hitting two of his team's six total threes. He also turned the ball over four times, so for the Cardinals to shut him down was a great sign.

Final Thoughts

Alma came into the season ranked #14 by D3Hoops.com, which some thought was a little high given what they lost. But they started this game very well despite getting stuck in traffic on the way to Naperville. Eventually they just succumbed to North Central's superior talent. I worry a bit that the Cardinals can get a little careless, but it's only their second game of the season. I'm not super concerned yet, not until we get into conference play. North Central will be back in action on Friday renewing the rivalry with Aurora University at home at 2:00pm.

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 12

With Thanksgiving tomorrow, I'm trying to get a beat on everything. Yes, this means I'm spending my 27th birthday looking over NFL games.

Unfortunately this past week, I performed worse than NFL place kickers. I'm still out of the basement, but Adam took four of our five disputed games this past week to rebuild his lead over me. I also have a Google sheet with updated standings through last week with a breakdown of how we're picking in relation to each other.

We're done with bye weeks finally, so we're back to the 16 games. Adam has decided, despite his success last week, that he needs some mojo. He had Aiden pick games based on mascot names, and he would come up with the justifications. Because of that, the disparity this week is enormous. We disagree on a whopping 12 games, which I think is a COAS record.

From all of us at Confessions of a Sportscaster, have a wonderful Thanksgiving!