COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 4

Three weeks into the season, we're starting to know who a lot of the teams in the league are to this point. Also through three weeks, we have (maybe) an idea of how well we're all picking games. Through two weeks we were tied, but Nathaniel and I had a wider gap this time as I took a 4 game lead. Obviously as I learned last year, it's way too early to start thinking about what I'd write on SSLYAR this year if I win.

So we're back at picking games for Week 4 as the byes start to kick in (thankfully for some teams... I'm looking at mine), so there will be fewer games and thus fewer opportunities to rack up obscene numbers of points in a given week, though it's not too bad this week with 15 games on the docket. This time we disagree on only 5 games, so he can still climb back in it. Let's get started.

2013 NCAA FBS Rankings: Week 5

We're onto Week 5 of the college football season, and we're definitely getting into the heart of conference play. With the number of byes from earlier on this season though, we're not into full-fledged conference play yet. But with the number of conference games going on this week, the weekly scores for conferences are going to be pretty small in general. On the plus side though, this means we're almost through all the cupcake scheduling.

If you want to see where we left off, you can view last week's rankings here. Like I've done so far this season, in parentheses you will see a pair of numbers: the first is the average score for the week of scheduling for a conference, and the second is for the conference's cumulative average over the course of the season. Here's where we stand with the upcoming weekend's games.

NBA Tournament of Champions: Championship of Champions

ESPN analyst and Grantland columnist Bill Simmons has a theory about NBA title teams that's backed up by almost 70 years of history.

"You build potential champions around one player. He doesn't have to be a super-duper star or someone who can score at will, just someone who leads by example, kills himself on a daily basis, raises the competitive nature of his teammates, and lifts them to a better place... You surround that superstar with one or two elite sidekicks who understand their place in the team's hierarchy, don't obsess over stats, and fill in every blank they can... From that framework, you complete your nucleus with top-notch role players and/or character guys... who know their place, don't make mistakes, and won't threaten that unselfish culture, as well as a coaching staff dedicated to keeping those team-ahead-of-individual values in place." (The Book of Basketball, pp. 47-48)

So when we look at how the NBA Tournament of Champions has unfolded over the past few months, it's no surprise that teams built around this principle are the ones to have made it to this point. Each titan left standing here today got here primarily behind the efforts of one superstar who is the unquestioned leader of his team, aided by a pair of excellent sidekicks, followed up by a capable group of role players that know their roles and execute them. And these teams might not have been as successful were it not for the men patrolling the sidelines, two of the best ever at their craft. I've simulated 348 games since July 1 to get us to this point, and you learn a lot over that span.

• My dad noted that after Round 1, 75% of the time (24 of the 32 series), the more recent team advanced. Running the numbers for the rest of the tournament, 11 of the 16 second round series had the more recent team advance, 6 of 8 in the third round, and all 4 teams that made the semis were more recent than their opponents. Last round bucked the trend, as the older teams made the Finals, but overall that's 45 of the 62 series, or about 73 percent of the time. Obviously the recency bias is correlational, not causal, but it definitely backs up my dad's theory (and possibly the algorithms WhatIfSports uses) that today's teams are generally bigger, faster, stronger and better than yesteryear's.
• WhatIfSports seemed to treat a lot of these games like exhibition games. Many rosters had more than 15 guys and we saw a lot of teams play no-name guys in garbage time. It also allowed for a funky fluke in having Elgin Baylor play for the 1972 Lakers despite his retiring a few games into the season (so to compensate, I didn't put him on the depth chart and he only appeared in games that had gotten out of hand and only for a couple minutes). For a (fictional) tournament to determine the best team ever in the NBA, this is curious.
• Looking through 358 box scores to compile stats to create All Bracket and eventually the All Tournament Teams is really, really time consuming. And we still have another 4-7 games left!
• Having an elite post presence is all but essential to being one of the best teams of all time. Looking at the teams that made the third round, you had teams who had a major contributor at either the center or power forward position. Notable examples were Kareem (twice), Shaq, Wilt, Tim Duncan, and Moses Malone. Needless to say, these guys were key factor in advancing their teams. The only possible Achilles heel to this is...
• If your team has a transcendent talent on the perimeter as its best player, you can largely get by without an elite center. Hence why Both of LeBron's title teams made the semis, and Michael's best team is in the Finals with only 3 losses to their name all tournament long.

I think most of that a lot of people either knew or could have guessed all of these things, but it's nice to have data to back up those theories. I've rambled on enough. You probably know the drill at this point: this Finals series is a best of seven (2-2-1-1-1 format) with home court going to the team with the better overall record (regular season plus playoffs). All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. In the words of Christopher Lambert, "There can be only one!"

2013 NCAA FBS Rankings: Week 4

Hard to believe it's already Week 4 of the NCAA season. Conference play is really starting to pick up this week, so this is probably the last in-depth post I'll have to detail things and I'll probably do express posts in the coming weeks. While it's definitely still way too early to start thinking about seeding playoff teams, it's something to keep in mind as we approach November.

If you want to see where we've been so far, you can view last week's rankings here. The rankings below will follow the same general format: rankings are based on a conference's cumulative average score over the four weeks. That's the second number in parentheses, following the average score for the week.

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 2

Odd numbers occasionally cause some craziness, so when Nathaniel and I sat down to talk about how we were going to go about doing the posts for game picks, we agreed quickly that he would start this season, since I started last season's. I only hope that winning the contest isn't tied to who has more posts, but we'll see.

Week 1 was full of some dramatic games and started out pretty interesting but also historically (and I'm not talking about Peyton Manning). For the first time since we started this coalition, Nathaniel has the lead in picks! It's only one week in, but he's up by 1 game (the Skins-Eagles game was the difference). So as we get set to start Week 2 tonight, hopefully neither of us gets too caught up in overreacting to the first game. Of course, I make no promises about either of us. We disagree on only 7 of the games this time, so let's see if the standings can flip.

2013 NCAA FBS Rankings: Week 3

September is now, for all intents and purposes, in full swing. We've played 2 weeks of college football (and 2 of high school here in Illinois) and one week of the NFL season. I'll have mine and Nathaniel's Week 2 picks for you tomorrow, but for now I'm back to the college ranks.

There's been some compelling games through 2 weeks, even in the midst of dozens of games against FCS competition. Yeah, I've been hard on those schools, and yes, I know the FCS schools like those games to see how they measure up against top tier competition and get a fancy paycheck for doing so, but I really don't think these games should count in the standings... especially when they get played at the end of the year. It's a scummy way to work your way up the rankings. If you're going to play these games, have them be a preseason affair a week before the regular season starts as a tuneup so they don't count in the standings, but fans can get their early fix in for football. The only issue then becomes player safety, which is another matter entirely. I stand by my criticisms.

So if you want a look at where we've been so far, you can view last week's rankings here. While I'm keeping up with the Road-Home Disparity Index, it's too early to post it, and it's also way too early for playoff points. As such, here's how the Non-Conference Schedule Strength metrics measure up by conference. In parentheses are the average scores for the week, followed by the total average score for the conference on the year. Rankings are based on total average score for the conference.

NBA Tournament of Champions: Semifinals

It was great to get back into the spirit of regular season football, wasn't it? However, with three series left to play in the NBA Tournament of Champions, I need to take advantage of a day off from football posts to fill the gap.

So if you've forgotten where we left off, both of LeBron's Heat teams still stand, and they oppose one of MJ's title teams and one of Duncan's from the past decade. They now go to battle to see who will play for the Championship of Champions.

Both these series, like the 60 that preceded them, are best of seven (2-2-1-1-1 format), with home court going to the team with the better overall record (regular season plus playoffs). All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play.