North Central and the NCAA Regional Rankings: Week 1 Edition

There are a number of posts related to North Central basketball that I write up every year. You see the multitude of Game Notes that I put up following every game I work, plus the ones I attend as a fan on the rare occasions that I get to go to a game. You also see the season previews and recaps, plus previews of conference tournaments and, when we are fortunate enough, pods in the NCAA Tournament. But in order to reach that magical land of bracketology, you either need to win the aforementioned conference tournament (which for last year's men's team, "they shouldn't have let us in") or hope for one of a number of at large bids.

I've never really done a full primer on how these work exactly; I've always just gone straight into "Here's where North Central is ranked." But that doesn't really do justice to what's going on with these rankings. If you've read entries from prior years, you at least have an idea: the NCAA releases four sets of rankings: on the first three Wednesdays in February, and a final one after all the conference tournaments have been played. It's a benchmark of who they think the best teams in each region are, but they have a greater purpose: these are used to fill the NCAA Tournament field. The primary criteria for regional ranking, and thus, entry to the NCAA Tournament, include win-loss percentage against Division III opposition (duh), strength of schedule (in a nutshell, two-thirds opponents' winning percentage plus one-third opponents' opponents' wining percentage, with home and road factors included), head to head results, common opponent results, and in later rankings, results against regionally ranked opponents. Secondarily, any games played against non-Division III opponents will also be factored in.

The national committee is made up of one head coach or athletic administrator from each of Division III's eight regions. Those committee members also chair regional advisory committees, which are made up of one head coach or athletic administrator from each of the region's conferences. These regional committees are tasked with ranking the top teams in their region. The national committee has the right to make changes to these regional rankings, but for the most part seems to trust the regional committees with this task and accept what they come back with. But the final rankings mainly get turned into the national committee, who use them to fill the rest of the field (what the NCAA calls "Pool C"). The way it works is they take all of the automatic bid winners out of the rankings. The highest remaining ranked teams in each region then get a place at "the table." The merits of all eight teams are debated, and the one the committee deems most worthy based on the above criteria gets put into the field. The next team up from that region then gets a seat at "the table," and the process is repeated until all Pool C bids have been claimed.

Interestingly, Todd Raridon is the CCIW representative on the Central Region committee for the men. He will recuse himself from any discussion involving North Central, as will other members if their own institutions come up for debate. The same would happen at the national level as well, and there doesn't appear to be any impropriety at the D-III level with this system in place.

Anyway, this is all a long-winded explanation of how we arrive at the lists of teams I will link to below, and where North Central fits into the picture.

Women's Basketball
5-16 Overall, 3-9 CCIW (8th)
Central: Unranked (out of 9 teams)

Look, a 5-16 team has no business being regionally ranked, no matter how good their strength of schedule is. North Central's is actually pretty good, all things considered, but your results matter. On the women's side there isn't a lot of parity; you have a ton of really good to elite teams with not a ton of losses. Three years ago when North Central made the NCAA Tournament, they ranked third in all three public regional rankings. The two teams above them ended up winning their conferences, which meant North Central got to the table immediately for Pool C consideration. They weren't one of the first teams picked, but it wasn't like they were on the bubble either. A 22-5 record at the time, combined with what ended up being a really good strength of schedule, even if they didn't have the results against regionally ranked foes to back them up, was enough to get them in. This year, North Central ranks 93rd nationally in strength of schedule, which is really good, but there are a number of CCIW teams ahead of them, most notably Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan. The fun note is that next week when results against regionally ranked teams come into play, North Central will be 1-5 with two losses to Illinois Wesleyan, one to Wheaton, one to Chicago, and one to the South region's Trinity (Texas). The win: at home against Carthage. I will flaunt this win for as long as I possibly can.

It's those aforementioned CCIW teams who are in pretty good shape with these rankings. A week or two ago I'd predicted Illinois Wesleyan would be in third in the region; they slot in at #2 behind UW-Whitewater. It makes sense; the Warhawks have a head to head win and a better SOS. It bodes incredibly well for their NCAA Tournament hopes. Wheaton, meanwhile, comes in at #8 to start things off. A strong SOS helps, but if we're looking at NCAA Tournament hopes, they're definitely on the bubble. I didn't expect to see Carthage round out the region, but their SOS is better than Wheaton's and their record places them comparatively with the bevy of WIAC schools that make up much of the rest of the rankings. They're even more of a tournament long shot, but it's always nice to see your team end up in this grouping.

Men's Basketball
16-5 Overall, 9-3 CCIW (2nd)
Central: 8th (out of 8 teams)

This was one I was unsure about in the days leading up to the ranking reveal. North Central's strength of schedule compared to a lot of other good Central teams isn't as good. Their non-conference SOS left a little to be desired, and while regionally ranked opponent records aren't a factor this week, the fact remains that North Central doesn't have any wins against those types of teams to this point does hurt their cause a little bit. At the end of the day though, they slotted in where I expected them to.

The CCIW is pretty well represented in this first set of rankings, with Augustana slotting in third and Illinois Wesleyan sitting in fifth. Both have head to head wins over North Central (which isn't really impacted here because results against RRO teams don't factor in yet), but Augie has a significantly higher SOS, while Wesleyan's is a hair higher at this point. Your top two teams in the region in Washington University and UW-Platteville make sense at the top given their records, while the bevy of WIAC schools that make up the rest of the rankings are all deserving candidates.

Photo from Augustana Athletic Department

As far as North Central is concerned though, slotting in at #8 is a problem with regards to an at large berth. They'll be the last team from the Central to the table if the season were to end today, and that's just not good enough. They've got a great opportunity to improve their fortunes though with the Grey Giovanine Jacket Watch on full alert with Augustana coming to Naperville tonight, but it's one that they have to take advantage of. Otherwise, they're going to be in the same boat they were last year of needing to win the CCIW Tournament to make the Big Dance.