Wednesday, August 5, 2015

2015 NBA Tournament of Champions: Elimination Round Reveal

28 days. 448 games. 64 teams entered, and now, only 32 remain. We're onto the "playoffs", as it were.

The 2015 NBA Tournament of Champions is, I suppose, halfway home. I wanted to go a little more in depth this time compared to the 2013 version, so instead of the straight up single elimination tournament, I decided pool play was a better option. It's still not perfect; we have teams with an 8-6 record sitting at home while teams with an 7-7 record get to play on based on the pool they were in. It sucks, but it was the best I could do. Teams still had more of a chance to prove themselves in this scenario, though.

So the purpose of this post is twofold. On one hand, I am going to hand out awards for group play, and I'm also going to reveal the bracket for the elimination round. First, I'd like to do a brief rundown of who all advanced.

By decade: 0 50's, 1 60's, 6 70's, 8 80's, 7 90's, 6 00's, 4 10's.
By pool: 7 Pool A (out of 8), 7 Pool B (out of 8), 6 Pool C (out of 16), 12 Pool D (out of 32).
By record: 2 (13-1), 4 (12-2), 5 (11-3), 6 (10-4), 4 (9-5), 8 (8-6), 3 (7-7); 3 (8-6) teams and 5 (7-7) teams did not advance.

On the surface, this is all pretty simple. With regards to point one, I'd like to bring back something my dad said during the 2013 Tournament of Champions.
One observation on your first round. We tend to view today's athletes as bigger, stronger, and faster (i.e. better) than their predecessors, and that was reflected in your simulations. The more recent team won 75% (24 of 32) of the series played.
This year, if we compare and take the dividing line at the halfway marker (so, the final team would be the '83 Sixers before we go "modern"), 22 of the 32 advancers were "more recent", and a little under that 75% marker (actually at 69.75%, which ended up a little under the total for the 2013 Tournament of Champions, which was around 72 or 73%). I find it funny: some people use Bill Russell's 11 rings as their argument for his being better than Wilt, who only had two. I don't think they're wrong (and there are other numbers to back up that argument), yet none of Russell's teams advanced to the Elimination Round while both of Wilt's teams did. Very strange on the part of WhatIfSports.

The other thing I wanted to do with the double round robin was see how many teams got screwed over in 2013, and we had a dozen teams with bad matchups or bad rounds eliminated after one round last time who will be playing in the Elimination Round this year. The most notable team that I was thinking of when I decided on this format change was the 1992 Chicago Bulls, who lost a heartbreaking Game 7 to the 2013 Miami Heat in the first round whereas with a different matchup, they almost certainly advance at least one round. This year, they won their group. On the other hand, the 2012 Miami Heat, who knocked off three Elimination Round teams back in 2013 and advanced all the way to the semifinals before losing to the eventual champion 1996 Chicago Bulls, finished 4-10 and missed the Elimination Round.

Finally, with my main overall concern about teams with better records missing out, I think we turned out all right. Every team who finished at least 9-5 made the Elimination Round, and we only had three 8-6 teams that did not advance: the '93 Bulls, the '00 Lakers, and the '57 Celtics. The Lakers and Celtics both had win-and-you're-in scenarios that they lost, while the Bulls did their part only to miss advancing on a tiebreaker. Since only three .500 teams made it, I can't complain too much.

So, onto the Elimination Round. The bracket for this is pretty simple: there are 32 teams, so they get into a five-round bracket with no byes. This 32-team bracket will be split up into eight groups of four teams, seeded 1-4 based on where they finished in their respective group. Each four-team "group" will have its mini bracket named for the MVP of the group winner, with some exceptions because a certain player won multiple Group MVP's in different years.

The overall bracket will be mostly randomly generated. Each of the eight mini brackets will be ordered based on the below tiebreakers so that should all the top seeds advance, the top-ranked one seed would face the eighth-ranked one seed, the second playing the seventh, and so on. From there, the rest of the field will be randomly generated, with the only factor being that teams from the same group will not be in the same bracket. Home court advantage will go to the higher seed in the first two rounds and will be the primary factor in deciding home court from the quarterfinals onward. If the two teams in a series have the same seed, the tie will be broken by record in group play. If there is still a tie, it will be broken by group play point differential. This will, in all likelihood, settle all ties.

So without any further ado: the official 2015 NBA Tournament of Champions Bracket. Were this going on in reality, the teams would have started playing over the weekend, but no series would be complete at this stage, so we aren't behind schedule really. I was also out of town for the weekend and didn't get a chance to complete everything I wanted to.

Now, I also wanted to go through all of the groups and hand out some awards. Like I did in 2013 with each bracket, I'm going to name an All-Group Team as well as a Group MVP. This time, I'm borrowing the format of North Central's Tip Off Tournament for the awards, where the All-Group Team will be made up of five individuals (though unlike the Tip Off Tournament, every team cannot and thus won't be represented) and then a Group MVP, who will not be a part of the All-Group Team, will be named. After the jump, you can view the award winners for each group. After each player's name I will include shooting percentages (field goal/3 point/free throw) and points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks per game, respectively.

Group A

PG- Magic Johnson, '82 Los Angeles Lakers (48.3/12.5/78.8; 14.1 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 8.1 APG, 2.5 SPG, 0.5 BPG)
SG- Klay Thompson, '15 Golden State Warriors (50.2/47.4/85.5; 27.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.6 APG, 0/7 SPG, 1.0 BPG)
SF- LeBron James, '12 Miami Heat (48.8/37.8/80.4; 26.3 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 5.6 APG, 1.8 SPG, 1.0 BPG)
PF- Pau Gasol, '10 Los Angeles Lakers (49.1/0.0/83.3; 14.6 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 3.1 APG, 0.4 SPG, 1.9 BPG)
C- Willis Reed, '70 New York Knicks (48.4/30.0/72.3; 19.5 PPG, 15.4 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.6 SPG, 2.7 BPG)

MVP- Stephen Curry, '15 Golden State Warriors (44.1/39.3/85.1; 24.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 9.8 APG, 2.4 SPG, 0.3 BPG)

Group B

PG- Magic Johnson, '85 Los Angeles Lakers (52.4/0.0/74.2; 17.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 11.0 APG, 1.7 SPG, 0.1 BPG)
SG- Oscar Robertson, '71 Milwaukee Bucks (48.7/44.8/86.3; 17.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 8.1 APG, 2.4 SPG, 0.6 BPG)
SF- Scottie Pippen, '96 Chicago Bulls (43.2/30.9/71.0; 20.4 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 6.9 APG, 1.6 SPG, 1.3 BPG)
PF- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, '85 Los Angeles Lakers (58.3/NA/78.1; 20.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 3.5 APG, 0.7 SPG, 2.8 BPG)
C- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, '71 Milwaukee Bucks (56.7/20.0/68.8; 29.9 PPG, 17.1 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.1 SPG, 2.6 BPG)

MVP- Michael Jordan, '96 Chicago Bulls (41.8/32.4/90.3; 30.4 PPG, 7.8 PRG, 4.3 APG, 1.9 SPG, 0.7 BPG)
*Note: Because Jordan has two Group MVP awards and this one was really close, the bracket with the '96 Bulls will be called the Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Bracket.

Group C

PG- Jerry West, '72 Los Angeles Lakers (42.2/32.4/80.6; 21.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 9.0 APG, 1.6 SPG, 0.3 BPG)
SG- Michael Jordan, '92 Chicago Bulls (47.1/20.8/76.5; 26.9 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 5.1 APG, 2.6 SPG, 1.3 BPG)
SF- Julius Erving, '83 Philadelphia 76ers (54.8/0.0/78.8; 21.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 4.3 APG, 1.8 SPG, 2.9 BPG)
PF- Wilt Chamberlain, '72 Los Angeles Lakers (68.2/0.0/41.4; 16.1 PPG, 17.5 RPG, 3.6 APG, 0.9 SPG, 3.9 BPG)
C- Moses Malone, '83 Philadelphia 76ers (52.4/0.0/79.8; 23.2 PPG, 16.6 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.9 SPG, 2.7 BPG)

MVP- Scottie Pippen, '92 Chicago Bulls (48.6/25.0/89.1; 18.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 7.4 APG, 1.8 SPG, 1.4 BPG)

Group D

PG- Dwyane Wade, '13 Miami Heat (52.4/27.3/72.6; 20.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 5.7 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.1 BPG)
SG- Kobe Bryant, '00 Los Angeles Lakers (46.3/32.1/79.6; 17.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.9 SPG, 1.5 BPG)
SF- Bill Russell, '59 Boston Celtics (49.0/NA/59.0; 15.9 PPG, 18.2 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.0 SPG, 2.3 BPG)
PF- Pau Gasol, '09 Los Angeles Lakers (56.3/0.0/81.3; 19.1 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 4.0 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.8 BPG)
C- Shaquille O'Neal, '00 Los Angeles Lakers (55.1/NA/55.4; 27.6 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 3.9 APG, 0.6 SPG, 3.4 BPG)

MVP- LeBron James, '13 Miami Heat (50.4/20.0/79.5; 21.8 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 9.1 APG, 1.6 SPG, 0.9 BPG)

Group E

PG- Walt Frazier, '73 New York Knicks (46.6/29.0/74.5; 20.1 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 5.3 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.4 BPG)
SG- Scottie Pippen, '97 Chicago Bulls (47.5/40.5/48.6; 20.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.6 BPG)
SF- Larry Bird, '81 Boston Celtics (43.1/33.3/87.9; 20.6 PPG, 13.9 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.6 SPG, 1.3 BPG)
PF- Tim Duncan, '14 San Antonio Spurs (46.6/NA/76.1; 16.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.1 SPG, 2.3 BPG)
C- Robert Parish, '81 Boston Celtics (51.6/0.0/74.1; 17.4 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 1.7 APG, 0.8 SPG, 3.0 BPG)

MVP- Michael Jordan, '97 Chicago Bulls (44.6/36.2/90.2; 26.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.6 SPG, 0.7 BPG)

Group F
PG- Magic Johnson, '88 Los Angeles Lakers (46.3/18.8/86.8; 16.9 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 12.3 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.1 BPG)
SG- Byron Scott, '88 Los Angeles Lakers (52.5/35.3/89.5; 22.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.7 SPG, 0.5 BPG)
SF- Scottie Pippen, '98 Chicago Bulls (45.1/29.1/84.9; 18.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 5.8 APG, 1.7 SPG, 1.4 BPG)
PF- Kevin McHale, '86 Boston Celtics (57.3/NA/78.3; 21.9 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, 0.7 SPG, 2.1 BPG)
C- Hakeem Olajuwon, '94 Houston Rockets (47.2/33.3/74.6; 27.9 PPG, 14.6 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.4 SPG, 4.1 BPG)

MVP- Larry Bird, '86 Boston Celtics (48.2/42.3/87.6; 25.2 PPG, 12.6 RPG, 7.0 APG, 1.9 SPG, 1.3 BPG)

Group G

PG- Tony Parker, '05 San Antonio Spurs (55.6/23.8/59.1; 18.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 6.1 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.0 BPG)
SG- Kobe Bryant, '01 Los Angeles Lakers (48.5/39.4/82.4; 25.2 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 5.4 APG, 1.3 SPG, 1.0 BPG)
SF- James Worthy, '87 Los Angeles Lakers (51.6/0.0/71.2; 19.9 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.7 BPG)
PF- Wilt Chamberlain, '67 Philadelphia 76ers (67.6/NA/46.7; 24.4 PPG, 22.01 RPG, 6.0 APG, 1.2 SPG, 4.0 BPG)
C- Shaquille O'Neal, '01 Los Angeles Lakers (60.2/NA/52.4; 29.2 PPG, 14.1 RPG, 3.7 APG, 0.4 SPG, 3.1 BPG)

MVP- Magic Johnson, '87 Los Angeles Lakers (47.9/20.0/85.5; 19.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 11.3 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.5 BPG)

Group H

PG- Jo Jo White, '76 Boston Celtics (43.8/32.1/79.2; 19.4 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 5.2 APG, 1.9 SPG, 0.6 BPG)
SG- Michael Jordan, '91 Chicago Bulls (50.6/41.7/79.4; 30.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 5.6 APG, 2.4 SPG, 0.9 BPG)
SF- Scottie Pippen, '91 Chicago Bulls (45.9/20.0/66.0; 14.3 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 5.8 APG, 1.6 SPG, 1.6 BPG)
PF- Larry Bird, '84 Boston Celtics (46.2/5.9/81.6; 21.6 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 7.7 APG, 1.8 SPG, 1.0 BPG)
C- Robert Parish, '84 Boston Celtics (51.9/0.0/74.6; 18.9 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.2 SPG, 2.0 BPG)

MVP- Dwyane Wade, '06 Miami Heat (49.5/35.7/85.4; 28.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 8.1 APG, 2.7 SPG, 1.1 BPG)

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