Monday, June 30, 2025

2025 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Group Reveal

The field is filled. Let's set the stage.

Yesterday the final five teams were announced that would be participating along with the 74 NBA and nine ABA champions in this year's tournament. This gives us 88 teams that will be playing, a huge growth from the last time I did this.

The format will nonetheless be the same; there will be eight groups of 11 teams that will be playing double round robins amongst each other, giving each team a total of 20 games to try and prove their worth.

Because of the sheer number of teams, I needed to do my best to balance out the groups. Thankfully, most of these teams have at least one prior sample of games for me to go off of. Years ago, I had built out a formula to score how each team performed in each of the tournaments, and from there I found the average score. Obviously a team that made a deeper run in a single tournament would get a little more weight than a team that has struggled through all three appearances, so it's not perfect, but it's better than a randomly assigned bracket like I used in 2013 that included a first round matchup between the 1992 Bulls and 2013 Heat.

There are 74 teams that have participated in one of these tournaments before, allowing for them to have a baseline score. 72 of those 74 teams are organized into nine different tiers, with each group getting one team from each tier in the name of competitive balance, but also to keep the very best teams from having to play each other too early.

The two teams not in that list are the 1953 and 1954 Minneapolis Lakers; two iterations of the franchise that have won a combined three games across three tournaments, easily the fewest among tournament teams. Those two Laker teams will join the 2020 Lakers and the five non-champion entrants who made it via the play in round into one tier that will be distributed across all groups, with every other NBA champion between 2017 and 2025 into another tier, giving us 11.

All tiers will have their teams randomly assigned to groups, with the exception of that '53/'54 Laker tier. By virtue of winning at least one previous Tournament of Champions, whichever group contains the 1996 Bulls and 1985 Lakers will get one of those two Minneapolis Laker iterations in their group, with the remaining six teams distributed among the remaining groups. The 2020 Lakers are in this tier not through any fault of their own; due to the circumstances of their playoff run this seemed like the fairest team to take out of the tier of other NBA champions to be crowned since the last time I ran this tournament.

A couple caveats for the group assignments: due to the sheer number of titles won by a couple teams (looking at you, Lakers and Celtics), there is no limit to the number of representatives from a single franchise in each group other than how tiers are set up. The only override that will be done is if any of our five play-in teams would get paired up with the team that beat them in that year's Finals (e.g. the 1993 Suns and 1993 Bulls cannot be placed in the same group).

Without further ado, here are the draws for the 2025 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions Group Play.

Friday, June 27, 2025

2025 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Play In Round

Let's get this tournament started.

As mentioned in the introductory post, we have 83 championship teams that are already into the field. Because this is not an even number, we need to get the field to a nice round number. Rather than pre-eliminating anyone, we're going to find a nice, round number of teams to add to get us to where we can group teams up.

20 of the 30 NBA franchises have won a championship, though I use an asterisk here to knock it down to 19 as the 1951 Rochester Royals are not on WhatIfSports, which knocks the Sacramento Kings' lone title off the board.

This gives me 11 teams for five spots. The Kings, since that 1951 title in Rochester, have not even made it back to the NBA Finals. Other franchises that have not had the fortune of making it to basketball's biggest stage are the Charlotte Hornets, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, and New Orleans Pelicans. Conveniently, that leaves us with five teams for five spots: the Brooklyn Nets, Indiana Pacers, Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns, and Utah Jazz.

Also conveniently, all of these teams have made multiple trips to the Finals without a ring. So to help determine which iteration of each franchise would earn the invite, we will do a play in round.

The franchises with two appearances will play a home-and-home, with aggregate scoring determining the winner. Now because the Phoenix Suns have three Finals appearances, they have some extra legwork that goes in with each team playing four games, so if there's a tie, head to head, then point differential, will be the tiebreakers.

All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play!

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

2025 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Introduction

I wasn't sure I'd ever get back to this. My daily workload became too much and I didn't have the bandwidth to start up a massive project like this again.

But with the 2025 NBA season now complete, and bandwidth seemingly in a better place... let's give this another whirl.

I've done a project like this a few times before. Back in 2013 I went as far back as the first NBA Championship (with some caveats due to team availability) and did a single elimination tournament to try and determine the best NBA team of all time. Not surprisingly, and much to my delight, the 1996 Chicago Bulls ran roughshod over their competition en route to the title. Two years later I revised the tournament to include group play and actually have all teams that were available. With a little bit more of a battle, the 1996 Bulls once again came out on top. A year later, I decided to add in ABA champions to the list, with a different result as the 1985 Los Angeles Lakers were the ones who took home the hardware.

So I've been sitting on this for several years now. The original plan was to do another one of these in 2022; that would give me an even number of teams to build a tournament similar to what I did in 2016. That was in the height of my "I don't have bandwidth" era though, but I've nonetheless kept this filed away, waiting for an opportunity to use it. Now in 2025, I finally do, though I had to make some adjustments to keep the field at an even number.

My usual simulator, WhatIfSports, has teams going as far back as 1952. That gives me the last 74 NBA champions. The ABA is also on the simulator, which gives me their nine champions for a total of 83 teams. From here, there are five franchises that have made at least one (incidentally, all have made at least two) NBA Finals but have not won an NBA championship. That's 88, a nice divisible number that allows for a format similar to what we've used.

Like we did in 2015 and 2016, I will set up eight pools of teams. In this case, each pool will have 11 teams. This will allow for a double round robin of each team playing 20 games, a little bit bigger of a sample size compared to the last time I did this. The top eight teams will advance to the usual elimination stage, which means double the number from prior years with 64 teams. I'll have a pre-seeding stage prior to this round to try and balance the bracket out, but I'll have more on that when we get to that stage.

Prior to the tournament starting, I will have a preliminary round to determine the last five teams in, and from there I'll unveil the groups for pool play.

Looking forward to getting back into this grind!

Friday, February 21, 2025

Game Notes: (WBK) Illinois Wesleyan University @ North Central College (2/19/25)

Final Score
IWU 79, NCC 55

Game Summary
Things were okay for the first couple minutes. The Cardinals (10-14, 6-9) were able to get across half court against a pressure defense and get a couple baskets while keeping the Titans (23-1, 14-1) into mostly halfcourt sets. A Cardinal layup cut it to 7-6 with 6:14 remaining in the first quarter. And then the wheels fell off. Titan pressure began forcing turnovers, and the Titans capitalized to the tune of a 23-0 run, with the Cardinals only managing a free throw to ultimately kill that run. Illinois Wesleyan pushed the lead as high as 31 in the second quarter, but the Cardinals cut it to 27 by halftime. NCC cut it to 21 quickly out of the second half gate, but a Mia Smith timeout stopped the bleeding and the Titans pushed the lead back up. The Titans' largest lead of the game came at the end of the third at 73-36, and Smith called off the dogs with about six minutes to go. The Cardinals' reserves managed to get the deficit back down to 20, prompting an angry Smith to use her final timeout with about two minutes to play before the Titans added a couple last baskets to close out the scoring.

Key Players

  • Sawyer White (IWU): 6-9 FG (2-4 3PT), 1-1 FT; 15 pts, 5 reb, 1 ast, 7 stl. Take your pick; this is an incredibly balanced Titan team, so we'll highlight their defensive master and the game's leading scorer. White picked off numerous ill-advised Cardinal passes, tying her season high in steals (done two other times this year) and is up to 78 on the year in 24 games. She's still 34 shy of her own single season program record in that category, but if my math is right, her final steal in this game moved her into second for a career in program history; Rebekah Ehresman's mark of 296 will be shattered probably by January of 2026.
  • Lauren Huber (IWU): 5-12 FG, 2-2 FT; 12 pts, 11 reb (8 off), 2 ast, 3 stl. With five Titans in double figures, the other player to focus on has to be Huber. I saw the double-double and figured this was a no brainer, but the other number that jumped out was the eight offensive rebounds. I knew the Titans had gotten quite a few, but I didn't remember Huber specifically getting that many. Not the best shooting night, but she contributed in other ways as well.
  • Biz Daly (NCC): 6-10 FG, 2-3 FT; 14 pts, 3 reb (1 off), 2 ast, 3 blk, 2 stl. Daly probably had the best night out of anybody. She was able to get a few wide open looks for easy layups, though after the outcome was pretty much decided. The rebounding numbers leave a little to be desired, but she filled the stat sheet enough elsewhere. It's been a good sophomore campaign for Daly, and I hope she can continue to develop into a serious All-CCIW caliber player.
Key Stats
  • NCC: 28 turnovers. Look, it starts and ends here. Nine of the 28 came in the final six or so minutes of the first quarter after Megan McClure's layup made it a 7-6 ball game, including a couple stretches of three straight giveaways. As you'd expect, those 28 turnovers turned into 46 Titan points. For comparison, the Titans did commit 20 turnovers of their own, but the Cardinals only turned those mistakes into 14 points.
  • IWU: Outrebounded NCC 39-28. I probably could have gone a couple different ways here, but this was another thing that jumped out to me during the contest. The Titans ended up with 14 offensive rebounds in the contest (including the aforementioned eight by Huber). Ultimately this didn't end up harming the Cardinals too badly, as they only gave up 12 second chance points, but it kept the ball in Titan hands and didn't allow the Cardinals to try to cut into the deficit.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • @ ELM 75 (15-8, 7-8), CAR 67 (16-8, 8-7)
  • @ WHE 64 (13-11, 8-7), MIL 53 (8-16, 7-8)
    • WHE clinches a CCIW Tournament berth
  • CRL 97 (17-7, 12-3), @ NPU 51 (3-22, 0-16)
  • BYE: AUG (10-14, 6-9)
  • MBK: NCC 80 (14-10, 7-8), @ CRL 76 (8-16, 4-11)
    • NCC clinches a CCIW Tournament berth
Final Thoughts
I came into the game with tempered expectations; the Cardinals had lost to the Titans down at the Shirk Center a little over a month before, but the margin was single digits. I figured the Cardinals could give the Titans a game. That was true for about four minutes, and then the Titans showed why they're one of the best teams in the country. This is a team with legitimate national title aspirations, and if they play the way they did on Wednesday, they can beat absolutely anyone.

Meanwhile for the Cardinals, Wednesday was about the worst case scenario we could have seen. While the loss wasn't unexpected, it was what happened elsewhere that poses a problem. Elmhurst's victory puts the Blue Jays in the drivers' seat for a tournament bid, and Millikin has a head to head sweep over the Cardinals that would get the Big Blue in ahead of them. Needless to say, Saturday is win-or-go-home for the Cardinals, but they need a ton of help, in particular from Illinois Wesleyan and Carroll (and possibly from Carthage depending on exactly how three-way tiebreakers play out), to play a 26th game.

All told, it's been somewhat of a disappointing season for North Central. They started fairly strong, but lost some games they probably shouldn't have over the course of the season. Nonetheless, there's still some good pieces in place, and Maggie McCloskey-Bax has done a good job reloading talent. This group will be in the mix again next year. But for now, my eyes shift to Wheaton on Saturday and hope for an extended season.

Monday, February 10, 2025

Game Notes: (MBK) North Park University @ North Central College (2/8/25)

Final Score
NCC 86, NPU 81

Game Summary
Taking on its second top-three conference opponent in as many games, the Cardinals (13-9, 6-7) traded baskets early with the Vikings (14-8, 9-4), who led 25-23 with just under eight minutes to play in the first half. The Cardinals finally took control with an 11-0 run, and closed the half on an 8-0 run, those as part of a larger 27-6 Cardinal run that led to a 48-31 NCC lead going into the locker room. After allowing the first two points of the second half to go down 19, the Vikings began to claw their way back in, cutting the deficit down to single digits about six minutes into the frame. The Cardinals did just enough to stay in front until the Vikings were finally able to draw back even at 77 with under four minutes to play. The Cardinals responded with a pair of free throws on the ensuing possession, and did just enough the rest of the way to hang on for their second consecutive huge home win.

Key Players

  • Drew Gaston (NCC): 9-13 FG (3-4 3PT), 4-4 FT; 25 pts, 3 reb (1 off), 1 ast. As seems to always happen, on Senior Night, the seniors find a way to step up and save the day. Just a few days after Gaston hit a couple huge fallaways he was back at it again. In a season where he's struggled from beyond the arc, he had an excellent night from deep, and continued to shine on his baseline fadeaways. But no moment was bigger than out of a Cardinal timeout with 32.3 seconds left and 11 seconds on the shot clock. Gaston took a pass from Terrance Moncrief on the wing, dribbled right, stepped back, and launched a three with the shot clock winding down. Said shot hit the rim, ricocheted off the top of the backboard (somehow avoiding the shot clock, which would have been ruled out of bounds), front rim again, then bounced home off the back iron to serve as the final basket of the game and the eventual dagger. Gaston likely won't win Player of the Week honors given that Wheaton's Soren Richardson dropped 53 on this Viking team on Wednesday and followed that up with 29 more against Carroll Saturday night, but I dare you to find two more cold-blooded daggers than what Gaston came up with this week.
  • Justin Sveiteris (NCC): 5-9 FG, 1-2 FT; 11 pts, 6 reb (2 off), 1 blk, 1 stl. Sveiteris has really started to come into his own as the season has progressed. He was needed more so in this game with James Bullock, Jr. out, and once again he shone. His 11 points was tied for second-most on the team with Ethan Helwig, his six rebounds tied the team high, and he played good interior defense, especially given his late foul trouble (he finished the game with four). He may not necessarily win any awards this year, but he has become a solid rotation piece for a CCIW team, and you need those.
  • TJ Gardner (NPU): 7-11 FG (0-1 3PT), 5-8 FT; 19 pts, 2 stl. To a degree, I think Gardner's game was a microcosm of North Park's game as a whole. Gardner spend a good chunk of the second half attacking the basket and getting to the line. He had one of five North Park and-ones in the second half, and was able to get to the line several other times. But his performance at the line also served as a microcosm for the game for North Park.
Key Stats
  • NCC: 8-17 3PT (47.1%). The Cardinals did a ton of damage on the inside as well, but it was complemented by their outside shooting, especially in the first half when they went a scorching 6-9. That cooled off a ton in the second half, but they didn't rely on it, and when they needed a big three... Drew Gaston gave them the aforementioned one.
  • NPU: 15-22 FT (68.2%). In the first half, the Vikings seemed to be settling for outside shots a lot more, and that was a big reason why the Cardinals ended up building that tremendous lead. North Park did a great job adjusting in the second half, when they went into full attack mode and the Cardinals had a tough time stopping them without fouling. As mentioned, the Vikings notched five separate and-ones in the second half alone. Problem was, they couldn't fully capitalize. North Park made 19 trips to the line in the second half alone, but only hit 13, and in a game they lost by five... you do the math.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • AUG 74 (13-8, 6-6), @ MIL 52 (11-11, 5-8)
    • With the MIL loss, NPU clinches a CCIW Tournament berth
  • @ CAR 85 (16-5, 10-2), IWU 74 (18-4, 10-3)
    • CAR clinches a CCIW Tournament berth
  • @ WHE 91 (5-16, 2-10), CRL 81 (6-15, 2-10)
  • BYE: ELM (10-11, 6-6)
Final Thoughts
Amazing how quickly a week changes things. A week ago, the Cardinals were coming off their third overtime loss in conference at Augustana with an absolute gauntlet coming up and desperately needing some victories to keep themselves in the conference race. The only team who maybe had a better week than the Cardinals did is Carthage, who after the bye on Wednesday knocked off Wesleyan for the second time this year to put themselves in the driver's seat for the conference title. North Central, meanwhile, has a one game lead for the sixth and final tournament spot, but they're just a half game out of fourth place. The Cardinals cannot catch the top two teams anymore, but they can mathematically still earn a home conference tournament game. They just need to keep this momentum up and probably get some help.

I need to build the spreadsheets again to take a look at all the scenarios, and I'll probably tweet stuff out once I do that. But we're down to a pretty fun race in the CCIW with just two weeks to go. The Cardinals finish off their home gauntlet (and likely their home schedule) as they welcome Carthage to Merner on Wednesday. It's a game I won't attend, but hopefully with how they've played in the last week, they can prove that they have what it takes to stand on their own.

Game Notes: (WBK) North Park University @ North Central College (2/8/25)

Final Score
NCC 82, NPU 71

Game Summary
Senior Day got off to a great start for the Cardinals (9-13, 5-8) as they started all four of their seniors and took a 10-4 lead in the early going. The Vikings (3-19, 0-13) stayed with it though, tying the game twice at 10 and then again at 13. A good NCC response led to a 20-16 Cardinal lead after one. The Cardinals briefly pushed the lead to double digits midway through the second quarter, but the Vikings fought back to within three late, though a late layup helped push the Cardinal halftime lead to 40-34. The third quarter was where the game was effectively decided though, as Cardinal pressure finally ramped up enough, as an extended 14-2 NCC run pushed the Cardinal lead up to 20 as the Vikings went over six minutes without a field goal. NCC led by as many as 22 early in the fourth, with some Viking garbage time scoring bringing the margin down to a more reasonable level.

Key Players

  • Biz Daly (NCC): 8-13 FG, 2-2 FT; 18 pts, 2 reb, 3 ast, 1 stl. Coming off the bench for senior Ceyda Yucel on Senior Day, Daly looked back to her form from early in the season. She had a very efficient day and led the team in scoring. While I'd like to have seen more rebounds, her paint presence and scoring touch has improved from her rough stretch recently.
  • Jocelyn Trotter (NCC): 4-6 FG, 5-5 FT; 13 pts, 7 reb (4 off), 3 ast, 5 stl. I feel like Trotter is very much a pass-first player, despite multiple calls from Coach McCloskey-Bax to take advantage of open looks. In this one, Trotter was a big key in the Cardinals taking early control as most of her makes came off putbacks, and she took advantage at the free throw line as well. Her five steals in this game give her 47 for the year, which is pretty good given the months she missed due to injury, but she will need to match this game's pace over the final three (a little less if the Cardinals can sneak into the conference tournament) if she wants to join the top ten mark for a single season in program history.
  • Caroline Long (NPU): 11-17 FG, 1-3 FT; 23 pts, 3 reb (1 off). Long had the best game out of any of the Vikings. She had a personal 6-0 run once the margin hit 20 in the fourth, and she added another bucket at the end for the last score of the game to give herself high scorer honors for the contest. Unfortunately for her and her team, it wasn't enough to get them over the top.
Key Stats
  • NCC: 31 points off 22 NPU turnovers. This is the recipe for NCC's success: get into your full court defense, force turnovers, and cash in. 13 of the giveaways came off Cardinal steals, paced by the aforementioned five from Trotter, with Grace Keiffer notching four more. By comparison, the Cardinals coughed the ball up 16 times, which the Vikings turned into 20 points.
  • NPU: 6-12 3PT (50.0%). This was largely buoyed by a 3-5 fourth quarter, but that was part of why this margin was as tight as it was in a game that the Cardinals largely seemed to control. The Vikings' free throw shooting did them no favors (11-19).
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • @ MIL 59 (8-13, 7-5), AUG 51 (9-13, 5-8)
  • @ CAR 87 (16-6, 8-5), IWU 81 (20-1, 11-1)
  • CRL 71 (15-6, 10-2), @ WHE 63 (11-10, 6-6)
    • CRL clinches a CCIW Tournament berth
  • BYE: ELM (12-8, 4-8)
Final Thoughts
This caps a solid week for the Cardinals, who after losing a couple rough games last week, had a good bounce back including a huge win in Kenosha this past Wednesday. The twin victories keep North Central's season alive and will hopefully provide a confidence boost. They will need all the help they can get, with a trip to Carroll coming this Wednesday.

Thursday, February 6, 2025

Game Notes: (MBK) Illinois Wesleyan University @ North Central College (2/5/25)

Final Score
NCC 72, IWU 64

Game Summary
Early on it seemed like the the number two team in the country in the Titans (18-3, 10-2) would run away with this one as they jumped out to a 12-2 lead just three and a half minutes into the game. But Vince Kmiec called a timeout to stop the bleeding, and that reset got the Cardinals (12-9, 5-7) back on track. The Titans kept in front, leading 19-13 with a little over 12 minutes to go, but then the Cardinals went on an extended 18-0 run to take command of the contest. All told the Titans went seven minutes without a field goal before hitting a three to cut it back to single digits, though the Cardinals would hit a long two to go into the locker room up 41-30. The start of the second half was all Titans again, as they opened on a 14-2 run despite another Kmiec timeout, grabbing the lead for the first time since the opening minutes. That was short lived, as Sean Molloy hit a fallaway from the paint to retake the lead, and that sparked a 7-0 Cardinal run. The Cardinals kept a five point lead with about four minutes to go, but the Titans fought back to tie the contest at 60 with just over three minutes to go. Drew Gaston answered with a fallaway on the ensuing possession, and the Cardinals would lead the rest of the way for the upset.

Key Players

  • Tyler Swierczek (NCC): 7-9 FG (3-4 3PT), 2-2 FT; 19 pts, 3 reb (1 off). With Ethan Helwig and Alejandro Diaz out of the lineup, someone needed to step up for the Cardinals, and Swierczek filled that role. He scored eight, including a couple threes, during that critical 18-0 run, and added a couple big baskets during the second half.
  • Terrance Moncrief (NCC): 6-16 FG (1-3 3PT), 4-4 FT; 17 pts, 5 reb (2 off), 4 ast, 3 stl. It wasn't the most efficient night for Moncrief, as Hakim Williams did a good job on him on the perimeter. But Moncrief filled in in other ways, and when he was needed he was able to get his points. All four of his free throws came in the closing seconds to ice the game away.
  • Drew Gaston (NCC): 5-9 FG (1-3 3PT), 3-3 FT; 14 pts, 2 reb, 1 ast. Getting the start with Diaz out, Gaston played admirably. The Titans though might be seeing baseline fadeaway jumpers in their nightmares as Gaston hit a couple key ones. He gave the Cardinals that 62-60 lead, then added another one with under a minute to go to make it 66-62.
Key Stats
  • NCC: 15-17 FT (88.2%). On a night where you're playing the number two team in the country, you need to take advantage of free throws when gifted them by your opponent. And the Cardinals, who Alex Campbell mentioned on the broadcast are the #11 team in the country in free throw percentage, lived up to that reputation. And when the Cardinals needed them the most in the closing minute, the Cardinals went 6-6 to seal the win.
  • IWU: 16 turnovers. If there's an Achilles heel to this Titans team, it's taking care of the ball. They're averaging 14 giveaways per game this season, and that theme held true in this game. The Cardinals notched eight of those on steals, took advantage of a couple early offensive fouls on the Titans, and one of those turnovers was the result of a Harrison Wilmsen technical foul. The Cardinals scored 18 points off of those 16 turnovers, while the Titans managed just nine points off six Cardinal giveaways.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • @ ELM 78 (10-11, 6-6), MIL 68 (11-10, 5-7)
  • WHE 102 (4-16, 1-10), @ NPU 89 (14-7, 9-3)
    • Soren Richardson (WHE): 53 pts
  • CAR 84 (15-5, 9-2), @ CRL 75 (6-14, 2-9)
  • BYE: AUG (12-8, 5-6)
  • WBK: NCC 62 (8-13, 4-8), @ CAR 50 (15-6, 7-5)
Final Thoughts

When these two teams met in Bloomington last month, the Cardinals ended up forcing triple overtime before the Titans finally escaped with a victory. It's been a rough month on the whole for the Cardinals since the drubbing of Wheaton a month ago, with two other overtime losses in addition to that previous game in Bloomington. So in what was an energetic, packed house, this one might have meant just a little bit more. Vince Kmiec cracked after the game that we'd just won a national championship. While that's obvious hyperbole, it was a much needed win, and the fact that it was an upset against the second-ranked team in the country was the proverbial cherry on top.

That proverbial cherry also keeps the Cardinals season alive. There's a clear top three in the Titans along with North Park and Carthage, then a dropoff. Elmhurst is a game clear for the four seed, and the Cardinals are fighting with Augustana and Millikin for the last two spots. NCC has a split with both, but the advantage the Cardinals now have is with this win over the Titans, this win will likely give the Cardinals the edge over both as we get down to the nitty gritty.

Senior Night will be on Saturday as the Cardinals welcome in North Park for another critical game. The Vikings have dominated the series in recent years, but are coming off a shocking loss at home to previously winless in conference Wheaton. The Vikings are just a game out of first with the two teams above them playing, so it's a game both teams need.