I took three of five disputed games from Adam last week to push my lead over him back to three. You can view the standings here, but with an asterisk: Adam goofed on one of his picks on ESPN, and by precedent, the picks on Confessions of a Sportscaster override what shows up on ESPN. You can view the correct standings, plus a breakdown of how we've all picked in relation to each other here.
Perhaps the most interesting thing that happened last week is that I am no longer in second place overall. Kristen still leads the group, but her advantage is a tenuous one game after a monster week by her brother Joe. Joe became just the second person in contest history to start perfect through the early slate of games on a Sunday, and finished the week with the second best mark in a single week in contest history behind my dad, who went 13-3 one week last year. I'm now in a third place log jam with Geoffrey Clark and Adam's wife Jen, who for just picking at random has done pretty well.
Looking ahead to Week 5, Adam and I disagree on six games out of 15. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots (-10.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Double digit lines normally make me a little leery, but the Pats are getting that pesky squirrel back, which can only help their offense. Also, this only the second meeting between the Patriots and Colts since the game that started the witch hunt, and if you think Brady just forgot about all that bullcrap...
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Atlanta keeps blowing games, but the Steelers' defense is awful, and if I'm getting points, I'm taking them even though it's a tricky line that has already cost me at least once this season.
Adam: Falcons. Matty Ice seems to be rounding back into form throwing for 374 and 419 in the past two games. I expect more of the same to happen. Also, Pittsburgh's James Connor has cooled down considerably since the first week.
Adam note: I predicted 10-125-2 for Jones, he ended with 9-173-0. The extra yards make up for one touchdown but still I would call this a push.
Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills (+3.5)
Lucas: Titans. I don't get football. Buffalo mopped the floor with the Vikings, then followed that up with a dud at Lambeau. Meanwhile, the Titans are starting to get their issues figured out. I'll lay the points here with a team that out-Philly'd Philly last week by going 3-3 on fourth down. I don't know why more teams don't do this.
Adam: Titans. Wow, only 3.5. I thought Tennessee was a little better than that and Bills a little worse. I guess looking at their wins, they all have come by exactly 3 points. I think that trend changes this week and the Titans blow up for a 10 point win.
Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. Yeah, they just got completely outclassed by the Patriots, but they're still 3-1. I'll take the points and hope I don't get burned by Andy Dalton.
Adam: Dolphins. Tough call, with Mixon currently up in the air and I generally hate 5.5-7.5 lines. I really think the Fins have a shot to win outright so I am going to roll the dice that Mixon is out or severely under used.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (+2.5)
Lucas: Ravens. The Browns should be 3-1 at worst; they've gotten screwed by the NFL not knowing what it's doing twice, including last week with a piecemeal replay to overturn a game-clinching first down. Al Riveron needs to be fired. But I think the Browns fall to 3-2 this week at the hands of a Ravens team that I may have underrated early.
Adam: Browns. Screw it. Browns' first Sunday win in over 1,000 days.
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets (-0.5)
Lucas: Broncos. One day Sam Darnold will really have his stuff together, and I think he's been all right this season. But in a pick 'em against a good defense, even at home, not this time.
Adam: Broncos. The lines will never be obvious; clearly why it is not my career choice, but I would not have put this game as a virtual pick ’em. Aside from the Week 1 showing, the Jets have been pedestrian at best. The Broncos have not shown much more, but I would still prefer them over the Jets.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (+1.5)
Lucas: Packers. I'm a little surprised the line is this low, but with a Packers offense that struggled a bit against the Bills I guess it makes sense. Rodgers called out said offense, and I think they'll play better this week.
Adam: Packers. At first I thought this pick was clear, but as I thought about it more it may not be. It comes down to I like A-A-Ron and company better than Stafford and company.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. I should really beware betting against Pat Mahomes since dude can throw left handed too, but against an elite defense I'll take my chances. Mahomes needed a late drive with some help from officials missing a delay of game on a crucial pass to escape Denver with a win, and Jacksonville's defense is probably better.
Adam: Chiefs. What’s that, you got me on the run to my back side? No worries, I can throw lefty too. Boom!
Patrick Mahomes throws LEFT HANDED to get away from a Von Miller sack!! pic.twitter.com/oAHMSVLt48— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) October 2, 2018
New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers (-6.5)
Lucas: Panthers. I'm seriously wondering at what point Eli Manning is either going to get killed on a dropback or just say, "Screw this, I'm out."
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Oakland Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)
Lucas: Raiders. So were the first three weeks all an elaborate trap by Jon Gruden to lull us into laughing at him? Because I'm worried now he may have a Death Note and attempt to murder us all.
Adam: Chargers. So I heard a story that Jon Gruden was looking for solutions to Oakland’s lack of a pass rush. This guy... at least I don’t have to listen to him on TV anymore. My ears have finally stopped bleeding from all his talk about the Tampa 2.
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (+7.5)
Lucas: Rams. To quote a great lunar philosopher...
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Eight and a half months ago, these were far and away the best teams in the NFC. Now? Both going through some struggles. This isn't going to be another drubbing, but I would still take the Eagles here.
Adam: Vikings. This is going to be a pretty darn good game this week. Maybe not the epic fire fight as was the case between Atlanta and New Orleans a few weeks ago, but it will be good. This game will be decided either way by a last minute field goal, or maybe even overtime.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)
Lucas: 49ers. I think I may have a new coach to take potshots at in Steve Wilks. He made some questionable decisions in the loss to the Bears and missed out on a chance to beat a not very good Seahawks team. Meanwhile the Niners did okay without Jimmy last week and I'll lay the points there.
Adam: 49ers. I’m not sure I can trust anything in Arizona right other than DJ, and even he is sketchy. The 49ers don’t have much more going for them, but I like them better. C.J. Whatever didn’t do too bad, and Kittles is lighting it up. I roll with that for now.
Lucas note: Your new jersey is in the mail. You can hang it next to your old Blaine Grubbyhand jersey.
Sunday Night
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans (-3.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. Yeah, Houston got in the win column last week, but I'm not sold on them as favorites. Taking the points.
Adam: Texans. The battle for Texas... and this game boils down to which defense can stop the other. 1.21 J.J. Watts and Clowney are my pick.
Monday Night
Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
Lucas: Saints. All hail our soon to be new passing king.
Records So Far
Lucas: 30-33 (6-9 last week)
Adam: 27-36 (5-10 last week)
Geoffrey: 30-33 (9-6 last week)
Joe: 34-29 (12-3 last week)
Aiden: 26-37 (6-9 last week)
Kristen: 35-28 (8-7 last week)
Jen: 30-33 (9-6 last week)
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