The standings remain relatively tight through four weeks, though there is enough separation between the top and the rest. Though now, the lead saw a bit of a change as, after taking three of five disputed games from Adam last week, I've moved back into a tie with him for first place. Great Reversal indeed.
You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. We're doing better on a consensus basis than we have in years past, and hero picks have been all right to date on the whole. I have the most correct, and only one less than the rest of the group combined, while Adam has the second-best rate on hero picks in the group with the second-biggest sample size.
This week, pending his picks passing their COVID test (which he said they tested positive for being awesome), Adam and I disagree on six games out of 15. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears (+5.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Granted, part of this was a Colts defense that's actually really good, but when your lord and savior Nick Foles craps the bed and has some fans calling for Mitch again... you're not in good shape.
Adam: Buccaneers. Crazy stat I saw on Facebook the other day: Brady is something like 20-0 on Thursday, 5-0 versus the Bears straight up and 4-1 against the spread. Hoping it’s a decent Thursday night game but alas, the GOAT GOAT's.
Lucas note: Fact checking this, Brady is in fact 5-0 all time straight up against the Bears; not sure about against the spread. His Thursday record is 12-2; not quite as eye-popping as 20-0, but still impressive. Interesting side note: the only team he has a losing record against? Seattle.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Lucas: Panthers. I mean... when this has become one of the most popular memes, how can you lay the points with Atlanta?
Posted by NFL Memes on Sunday, October 4, 2020
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans (+1.5)
Lucas: Bills. Assuming this game even gets played. I've said it once already this season: time to institute an 18 week season where everyone plays 16 games, but you get two byes. That will help with this nonsense.
Adam: Bills. I see this a somewhat of a trap game. The Titans, coming off of an unscheduled bye due to COVID, will come out a little rusty. And with Allen blooming, I’ll give the nod to the superior receiving corps.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)
Lucas: Ravens. Yeah, Joe Burrow added a Death to the BCS Championship to his resume, but that's not gonna help you against a good Ravens team when your NFL team isn't that great. I'll lay the points.
Adam: Ravens. I went 1-1 last week as I recall with double digit spreads; this is the first of three such games this week. Burrow will have his first baptism by fire. Lamar Jackson and team will come out hot and Burrow will have to play from well behind for most of the game. Still a good learning experience.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)
Lucas: Raiders. I saw a picture from the Monday night game of Patrick Mahomes talking with Stephon Gilmore postgame, which has me concerned about whether or not he'll play, in which case taking the points seems prudent.
Adam: Raiders. Shoot, here is another double digit line. Despite a win last week, the Chiefs looked a little vulnerable. A Cam-led Pats team probably wins last week, or at least come closer. Plus, the gaffe of the fumble/no fumble, but it was a pass, OK, but the defender caught it, OK, then he was down BS that the refs missed. Anyway, the Raiders keep this one close, or at least closer than the 12.5.
Los Angeles Rams @ Washington Football Team (+8.5)
Lucas: Rams. I'm hesitant to do this; the Rams couldn't cover a double digit spread against the Giants of all teams. Washington is better, but I keep getting burned by them. Enough is enough.
Adam: Washington. Look, the Rams are the superior team; they should win this game. I just think Washington should get a little credit for being at home and performing generally better than many expected. I’ll give them that nod too; I’ll take the points and hope for the best.
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets (+6.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. Hey, at least the Jets are better than the alternate universe's 2023 Minnesota Vikings. That team is currently 1-10, their starting quarterback got hurt, forcing them to start a third year guy who's been absolutely awful, and the rock bottom was a game at the Metrodome (again, alternate universe, never bothered to make a new stadium since the Dome is fine) where the Packers not only beat them 217-0, but held the Vikings without a first down, sacked said awful third year quarterback a record 31 times, and Minnesota finished the game with something like -143 yards.
Adam: Jets. Sam Darnold's seeing ghosts again; last year it was mystery DBs, this year it is mystery edge rushers. Ghost man for the sack. Haha. Regardless, after putting a little bit of a surprise win on San Francisco in Week 1, the Cards have been pedestrian. They win, but Jets cover.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
Lucas: Steelers. Pittsburgh is just better. Not that that's saying much, given the Eagles are the best team in the NFC Least.
Adam: Steelers. Flipped on this game. At first I took the points, but once I started digging more on the rush and pass D's for both teams, it is clear that Pittsburgh is the better defense. That combined with Prince Harry not able to do much of anything: four touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Not a good stat line.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-6.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Yeah, you got rid of the problem in Bill O'Brien, but that doesn't suddenly bring Deandre Hopkins back. Taking the points.
Adam: Jaguars. After the firing of O’Brien, this game could go to the extremes on either side: Either a Texans blow out, or a Texans crushing. I’m leaning toward getting crushed. Minshew and the 'stache ride high.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers (-8.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. I had this whole big thing written out for this, when really, WONC Sports Director Greg Williams summed it up nicely.
Adam: 49ers. A line of 8.5... ummm... shoot, I guess I’ll take the home team and pray. Though the more I think about it the more Fitz-magic sounds like a winner... nah, I’ll stay with the Niners.Bring back @brocrutter12 you cowards https://t.co/zrPIMkkXgQ
— Greg Williams (@GregWilliams28) October 5, 2020
Indianapolis Colts @ Cleveland Browns (+2.5)
Lucas: Colts. Not having Nick Chubb hurts, and the Colts have slowed down everyone in their path so far this season. Don't see why they can't keep it up against Cleveland.
Adam: Browns. A little surprised that the Browns are dogs at home against the Colts. I get that they are in a territory that they have not been in in almost a score and the Chubbs is out. But that O-line seems to not care who is running the ball, they block nonetheless. I will happily take points at home in a game I think the Browns win.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
Lucas: Giants. If we've learned anything... Dem Boyz should not be double digit favorites (and I count this since they'd have to win by 10 to win this pick).
Posted by NFL Memes on Sunday, October 4, 2020
Lucas note: YOU MISSED A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE THIS YOUR STONE COLD LOCK OF THE CENTURY OF THE WEEK!
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots (-10.5)
Lucas: Broncos. First Cam Newton, now Stephon Gilmore. I don't think Denver wins, but given how bad Brian Hoyer was that Jarrett Stidham had to come in and try to stop the bleeding, I don't think the Pats should be double digit favorites.
Adam: Broncos. Here is the third of the double digit lines. I originally had the Pats here, but quickly looked to see the status of Newton. As of Wednesday morning, it is projected Newton misses this game. On that basis, I am taking the Broncos. If Newton were playing, I would have taken the Pats.
Lucas note: I think I would have too. The Gilmore news just made my choice even more obvious.
Sunday Night
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. Do you think Minnesota can keep up with Russell Wilson? I say no.
Adam: Vikings. My logic is telling me to give the points and ride with Seattle. But my gut says play the generally underperforming Vikes. I’ll go with the gut feeling. Plus, I will be celebrating my sister’s wedding this weekend up in MSP, so why not.
Monday Night
Los Angeles Chargers @ New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
Lucas: Chargers. I don't really have a lot of confidence in a Drew Brees that either can't or won't throw more than like 15 yards down the field. I'll take the points.
Adam: Saints. Don’t like this game. Just picking Kamara to do some crazy 50-plus yard runs.
Records So Far
Lucas: 37-26 (8-7 last week)
Adam: 37-26 (7-8 last week)
Joe: 32-31 (7-8 last week)
Geoffrey: 36-27 (6-9 last week)
Jim: 33-30 (8-7 last week)
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