I broke one tradition with my 2018 MLB previews in condensing this down from six days of posts to three. But one tradition I didn't break was the alternating of leagues and working across the country.
And now, we conclude with the division that contains our defending champion: the AL West.
Last year: 101-61 (1st in AL West), 17 wins above COAS prediction; Won World Series
I wasn't as high on the World Series champs going into last year since they had a down 2016. That won't be a problem this time; Justin Verlander is around for a full go this year, and the Astros added Gerritt Cole to an already good rotation. The lineup is young and deadly; Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Carlos Correa are a potent group up the middle, Alex Bregman showed his chops in the World Series last year, and I don't think there are really any holes in this lineup. Give me Houston leading the American League again.
2018 Prediction: 102-60
Last year: 80-82 (2nd in AL West), 9 wins above COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
The Angels are an interesting team this year. They still have Mike Trout, arguably the best player in the game, and have a pretty good supporting cast around him, including swiping Zach Cozart from the Reds. Albert Pujols is up there in years but still a threat. But the big question is around Japanese import Shohei Otani. Otani figures to be a part of the Angels rotation but will probably also take on some of the DH role from Pujols from time to time to get his bat in the lineup; maybe the Angels will even forgo the DH a few times when he pitches. All in all, the talent is intriguing. This year is when they finally make a little noise.
2018 Prediction: 88-74, Wild Card
Last year: 78-84 (T-3rd in AL West), 12 wins below COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
I don't fully understand the Mariners. They have a very potent lineup that added Dee Gordon to the mix and has some other weapons in Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, and Robinson Cano, while Mike Zunino might be one of the more underrated catchers in the game. Maybe it's the rotation, where Felix Hernandez hasn't been quite Cy Young level, and we'll see if the addition of a Mike Leake will be enough to help shore things up. I think the Mariners will be decent, but not good enough.
2018 Prediction: 80-82
Last year: 78-84 (T-3rd in AL West), 18 wins below COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
Whoops. I actually like the rotation down in Arlington, where Cole Hamels may not be quite what he used to be but he's still a good pitcher, and the addition of Doug Fister will help a little bit. But I'm just not really sold on the lineup. It seemed like the Rangers had a ton of great young prospects but I'm not really sold on guys like Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo, or Nomar Mazara. Even the veterans in Adrian Beltre or Shin Soo Choo aren't enough in my eyes. It could be a rough year in this part of Texas.
2018 Prediction: 68-94
Last year: 75-87 (5th in AL West), 11 above COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
I know the 2017 A's overachieved a little bit, but I don't see a repeat performance this year. Sonny Gray is gone, so you're relying on Kendall Graveman to be your top of the rotation guy, something he is not. No one in the lineup really strikes fear into you; the fact that the Cardinals dealt Stephen Piscotty here, someone who the Cardinals thought would be a fixture for them, is proof enough. I don't have them bottoming out like the Marlins, but I don't think this team is really going anywhere either.
2018 Prediction: 64-98
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