Sunday, May 5, 2013

NBA Conference Semifinals Preview

I may not be a pundit when it comes to predicting things (my NCAA tournament record speaks for itself), but I think I did all right when it came to first round predictions. Six out of eight isn't too bad, and neither is successfully predicting the entire Eastern Conference for the first round (plus nailing the number of games on three of those series), so naturally I'm going to try to build on that success only to watch everything crash and burn in the next round. Hey, at least I'm honest and realistic about it.

On the whole though, most of the series went the way people were expecting things to break, though I think some people may have been surprised by Golden State Steph Curry going off like he did, and maybe the way the Clippers collapsed, so now I don't have to listen to the KTLA people go on about either Los Angeles basketball team. Good times.

Anyway, here's how I'm thinking the next couple rounds break:

Eastern Conference

(1) Miami Heat vs (5) Chicago Bulls
A lot of people were fairly high on Brooklyn but also on the Bulls as well, despite their ever-increasing short-handedness. That's part of what made Game 7 so incredible: No Rose, no Deng, no Hinrich, guys fighting off the last aftereffects of being sick, and they gut out a big series win. There's a reason teams don't really like facing this Bulls team. Guys like Joakim Noah and Nate Robinson can really fire up this team and guide them towards success.

And yet even with that... Miami is in a class all its own. We saw that throughout the regular season as LeBron ascended to a level of play not seen in probably 20 years, and the team around him did everything it could, and it showed in finishing with the best record in the league and nearly shattering the '72 Lakers' record win streak before this Bulls team put an end to it. That's what makes this series so intriguing: the Bulls have the blueprint to beating this Heat team, it's just a question of if they have the personnel and the guile to be able to win four games. The only way I could see it happening is if Derrick Rose comes back... and I'm thinking he's not going to this season. Not at this point. The Bulls make the Heat work for it, but in the end that team is just too much. Heat in six.

(2) New York Knicks vs (3) Indiana Pacers
New York had some issues closing out Boston before finally putting them away on Friday, but they looked pretty good for most of that series. Carmelo is getting things going (as long as he's not shooting 10-35) and his supporting cast is stepping up. They do have a tough test in Indiana, who plays good team basketball and plays solid defense. It showed, given that these teams split the season series, with the home team winning all four games. Ultimately I think I trust Mike Woodson over Frank Vogel, and the Knicks have a go to guy in Melo while the Pacers are down their best guy still in Danny Granger. Look for a good, physical series, but one where the favorite wins it. Knicks in six.

Western Conference

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (5) Memphis Grizzlies
This isn't anywhere near the same Thunder team as last year, especially now that Westbrook is probably done for the year. That puts the onus on Kevin Durant to do a little bit of everything. He could get away with it against a team like Houston, but Memphis is another story. This is looking like 2011 again in Tennessee, with Zach Randolph enjoying a renaissance, Marc Gasol playing really tough defense, Mike Conley distributing the ball, and the rest of the team falling into place around them. The Thunder need other guys to step up against this tough Memphis team, but I think they're too shorthanded this time. Grizzlies in six.

(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (6) Golden State Warriors
Steph Curry, ladies and gentlemen. I figured between home court and the way Denver played for most of the season that they'd be able to outlast Golden State, especially when David Lee went down. Somehow he came back to help out, Steph Curry kept up his scoring binge, and the Warriors are moving on. I'm not sure I can see the same happening against the Spurs. They've had time to rest up now and they're going to be ready. Curry will do all he can to keep the Warriors in this series, but I think the Spurs will just be too much. Spurs in five.

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