Game Notes: (MBK) Elmhurst College @ North Central College (2/28/20)

Final Score
Elmhurst 71, NCC 60

Game Summary
This game started out in a similar fashion to the last one between these two teams, as the Cardinals (21-5) were able to trade some early leads with the Blue Jays (22-5), but there was no dry spell for Elmhurst on this night. North Central reached its high water mark about halfway through the first half with an 18-12 advantage and again a few minutes later at 25-19. But then the Jays went on an 8-0 run sparked by back to back threes. They couldn't take full advantage, and the Cardinals battled back to take a 32-31 lead into the locker room. Elmhurst looked fresher and more ready to open the second half, scoring the first five points to take the lead back, but the Cardinals kept it close thanks in part to both teams shooting themselves in the foot a little bit. After each team received a flop warning earlier in the game, North Central drew a technical foul for a flop about five minutes in, allowing the Blue Jays to go up four instead of three. Elmhurst let the Cardinals back in with a Class A technical foul (two shots), and drew a Class B for a flop of their own a few minutes later, the latter of which pulled the Cardinals back within one. But the Jays hit a three the next time down, then after trading layups, an end of bench Cardinal drew a Class A technical, giving the Jays a four point possession to help spark what turned into a 13-0 run to extend their lead to 15. The Cardinals got no closer than seven the rest of the way, as the Jays advance to tomorrow's CCIW title game with The Belt^TM in their possession for the first time this year.

Key Players

• Jake Rhode (ELM): 7-16 FG (4-8 3PT), 7-7 FT; 25 pts, 7 reb, 2 ast. Three weeks after struggling in this same building, Rhode came out guns blazing, hitting an early three, but he only had eight at halftime. He came alive after the break though, scoring 17, including a couple more threes and a perfect 5-5 mark from the free throw line.
• Derek Dotlich (ELM): 5-11 FG (2-6 3PT), 3-3 FT: 15 pts, 2 reb (1 off), 2 ast, 3 stl. Dotlich's first game here was even worse (0-6, including 0-4 from deep if I remember right). But he got an early fast break layup to break out, and hit a couple big threes, one in each half. The three steals were a team high; Lavon Thomas had the other two for the Jays.
• Connor Raridon (NCC): 6-18 FG (1-4 3PT), 5-5 FT; 18 pts, 10 reb (2 off), 6 ast, 1 blk. On a night where pretty much everybody struggled, Connor did all he could to will his team onto the finals. But even his best effort wasn't enough, as the Jays did a pretty good job forcing him into tough shots, and he missed at least one point blank layup that could have turned the tide.

Key Stats

• NCC: 22-60 FG (36.7%), 7-25 3PT (28.0%). That's not going to get it done. Elmhurst played good defense, but like I just touched on, the Cardinals missed, that I can clearly remember, three point blank clean layups in just the second half. It wouldn't have been enough to fully turn the tide, but hitting those maybe stops the bleeding and gives you energy to get a stop. I don't know. The threes not falling tonight either didn't really help.
• ELM: Outrebounded NCC 41-38. Each team had 31 defensive rebounds... meaning the Jays got three additional second chance opportunities, scoring eight second chance points to North Central's four. Combine that with the three missed layups by the Cardinals mentioned above... that's 10 of your 11 points that made the difference. I feel like saying that though does a disservice to the Blue Jays, because the stat line kind of bears out what the eye test tells you. The Jays had more energy and played like it, especially in the second half.

CCIW Semifinal Watch

(3) IWU 74, (2) AUG 70

This was a great one to open the evening. The Vikings (18-8) seemed to be in control for most of it, and actually held the lead for over 36 minutes of game time, and were up by as many as seven in the first half, but the Titans (19-8) came back to tie a couple times before going into the break down 34-31. The Vikings again tried to pull away in the second half, but couldn't get farther than six up, and the Titans managed to come back late to tie a couple times again before taking the lead for good with 1:36 left. Peter Lambesis was ridiculous, putting up a game-high 28 points, Cory Noe added 17, Matt Leritz finished with 11, and Alex O'Neill only had six points but played some great defense to lead the Titans to the upset win. Austin Elledge and Micah Martin each had 19 points to pace the Vikings, while Pierson Wofford chipped in 15.

Bonus Grey Giovanine Jacket Watch
I was really on watch for this in a neutral game. It was Grey Giovanine's second trip to Naperville this season, so it was the second time of getting to look for it. Ultimately, he was chill with regards to the jacket even as he was laying into some of his players, before finally removing it with 4:05 to go in the first half.

Women's CCIW Tournament Watch

• (1) WHE 76 (20-6), (6) NCC 44 (12-15)
• (2) IWU 76 (18-8), (5) AUG 75 (14-13) (OT)

Final Thoughts

I want to get this out of the way first: I felt like I announced a road game tonight. The Blue Jays brought a ton of students to this one, and they were into the game pretty much the whole way, but especially in the second half. I really think their team then fed off that, especially during that key 13-0 run that put the game on ice. I'm not thrilled that North Central couldn't muster a student section in response... but what can you do.

With that out of the way, let me tip my hat to the Blue Jays. After a heartbreaking loss to the Cardinals at Elmhurst back in December, then a rough trip to Naperville three weeks ago, they were clearly up for this one, and definitely outplayed the hosts tonight. They earned their way to the title game, where they are going up against a never-say-die Illinois Wesleyan team for the CCIW's automatic bid. The Blue Jays should be in the NCAA Tournament already; this would be a formality for them. The Titans almost definitely need to win tomorrow night to get in.

As for the Cardinals, I think they're pretty safe. They entered the weekend ranked fourth in the Central, and while they may drop in the final set, they've set themselves up nicely the past few weeks to still have the resume to make it as an at large. They should be far enough away from the bubble that they won't have a ton of drama on Selection Monday. But the loss today, in addition to passing on The Belt^TM to their vanquishers, it also likely ends any chances of NCAA Tournament games in Naperville.

I'll probably do a writeup on the CCIW title game tomorrow or Sunday (maybe Monday, depending) since I'll still be working that game. Monday, once the bracket is out, I'll have a look at what the Cardinals are looking at for a tournament matchup, assuming they do in fact make it.

North Central and the NCAA Regional Rankings: Week 3 Edition

Happy Championship Week! Conference tournaments are underway across the D-III landscape, and with tournament fates hanging in the balance... let's take one final look at the regional rankings.

With the NCAA Tournament field getting revealed on Monday, this set of rankings is arguably the most important. Last week's introduced the results against regionally ranked opponents criteria, and any team ranked this week will, for the purpose of that metric, remain regionally ranked even if they don't appear in the final set.

With word in from the regional advisory committees, let's have a look.

2020 CCIW Men's Basketball Tournament Preview

The women's tournament preview is in the books. Let's move onto the men.

This is one I'm more able to write about, as I didn't get to see a ton of women's games this season (though I still tried to follow as best I could). For the men though, I saw every home game and chunks of many road games, and this is maybe the most excited I've been for a conference tournament in a long time.

Of course, there's a reason for that as we go into the second year with the six team format. As with the women, the top two teams get byes to the weekend, while the higher seeds host the play in games on Tuesday.

2020 CCIW Women's Basketball Tournament Preview

I'm trying to get these out a little earlier this year. For one thing, North Central is playing Tuesday, so I need to preview that. For another... the fact that this is now a six team tournament means I want to get with the program a little quicker.

This is actually the second year that the CCIW has used the expanded tournament; in prior years this was a four-team affair, but the six team group gives more teams a chance not only for an automatic bid, but also to bolster their resumes for at large selection into the NCAA Tournament.

So below I'm going to preview the entire CCIW Tournament field. I'm only putting the weekend site on here; the weekend part of the tournament hasn't changed in that the conference champion hosts the semifinals and finals, but the past couple years the Tuesday play-in games have had higher seeds host.

One More to Go: A CCIW Update

The regular season concludes tomorrow for the CCIW... which means we have to look at how the CCIW Tournament races are shaping up.

This is an annual feature for me where I look at all the different clinching scenarios. Earlier this week I had thought about trying to crunch numbers with two games to go for odds of each team getting certain tournament seeds. The math proved to be a little too much for me, but I will include the numbers here now that there's just one game to go and the math becomes much more simple.

As usual, a lot of the tournament spots have been claimed already, but seeding is all still well up for grabs. I consider it the advantage in Year Two of having a six team tournament instead of only four. Let's have a look.

Game Notes: (MBK) Carthage College @ North Central College (2/19/20)

Final Score
NCC 70, Carthage 69

Game Summary
After surrendering a basket on the opening possession, the Belt^TM-wielding Cardinals (20-4, 13-2) scored the next eight, including two threes in four seconds thanks to a dumb turnover. But the Red Men (15-9, 7-8) got right back into it and turned this into a back and forth affair. Carthage would lead by as many as five before taking a 35-33 advantage with a minute to go in the half, and carried that into intermission. After trading a couple baskets to open the second half, the Red Men began to assert control, scoring six straight to open up a 45-37 advantage and forcing a Cardinal timeout. North Central tried to cut into the deficit, but Carthage pushed it as high as 11, going up 55-44 with about nine and a half to play. An 8-0 Cardinal run made it a game again, but Carthage scored seven of the next nine to push the lead back to eight. Seemingly, the Red Men had an answer for every late Cardinal push, as they led by six with just 25 seconds to play. But a three pointer cut the deficit in half with 14 seconds to go, the Red Men split a pair of free throws with 11 ticks left, then committed a foul on another three with just 4.3 seconds left. The Cardinals hit all three to pull within one, intentionally fouled with 3.7 left, and Carthage missed the front end of the one-and-one, allowing the Cardinals to call timeout with three ticks left. Out of the timeout, a baseball pass across halfcourt was intercepted by two Carthage guys, but a travel with 1.6 left gave the Cardinals new life. They opted for a lob play... but drew a foul with 0.9 left, and hit both free throws to steal victory from the jaws of defeat, successfully defend The Belt^TM, and clinch the outright CCIW title.

Key Players

• Aiden Chang (NCC): 4-5 FG (3-4 3PT), 5-5 FT; 16 pts, 2 reb (1 off), 3 ast. As far as offense is concerned, Aiden is a complementary piece, but he really stepped up last night, especially late. He scored 14 of his 16 in the second half, and saved some heroics for the very end. He hit the three with 14 seconds left to make it a 68-65 game, then was fouled on the three attempt with 4.3 seconds left, calmly draining all three to make it a one point game and set up that ridiculous ending.
• Matt Cappelletti (NCC): 5-11 FG (1-4 3PT), 3-4 FT; 14 pts, 8 reb (2 off), 2 ast. It wasn't necessarily the greatest shooting night for Cap, who seemingly adjusted his shooting stroke for a much higher arcing shot. He was able to help keep the Cardinals in the game though with decent rebounding and hit some key baskets, but none bigger than on North Central's final possession. After his baseball pass was picked off and the Carthage travel gave them another chance, the Cardinals dialed up a lob to Cap, who caught it on the far elbow and tried to turn and go up with it... but was bumped, putting the Cardinals into the double bonus. Cap proceeded to calmly hit both free throws to turn a one point deficit into a one point lead, winning the game.
• Fillip Bulatovic (CAR): 7-12 FG (1-4 3PT), 0-2 FT; 15 pts, 5 reb, 1 ast, 1 stl. I found myself cursing Bulatovic as the game was winding down. Coming off the bench, he had seven in the first half, including his lone three, while all four of his field goals in the second half came at clutch moments in the final seven minutes. His last two especially seemed like daggers; he found himself open under the hoop and converted to push the Red Men lead to six on both. But at the end, he ended up wearing goat horns, committing the foul on Cappelletti (his fifth of the game) to put him at the line for the game-winning free throws.

Key Stats

• NCC: 14-17 FT (82.4%). North Central shot pretty well for the game (47.1% from the field, 34.8% from deep), but weren't on track at the line early, missing both of their first half attempts. But they were money in the second half. Connor Raridon went a perfect six-for-six, Aiden Chang hit all five of his, including the three crucial ones with 4.3 seconds left, and despite having the one miss earlier in the second half, Cap had ice in his veins as he hit the two that stole the game with 0.9 to play.
• CAR: 16 second chance points. The Red Men have a bunch of freaking giants; 6'11 centers Sean Johnson and Brad Perry combined for 11 rebounds in this one, including five on the offensive glass. Carthage had an 11-2 advantage in second chance points at the intermission, and as time was winding down I knew I was going to highlight this as a key stat. But for the game, Carthage only outrebounded the Cardinals by one (despite having 11 total offensive boards), and their 11 point advantage on second chance opportunities went to waste.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• IWU 94 (16-8, 10-5), @ NPU 92 (4-20, 2-13) (OT)
• @ ELM 62 (20-5, 11-5), CRL 59 (11-13, 4-11)
• Elmhurst clinches a home game in the CCIW Quarterfinals
• @ WHE 68 (15-9, 9-6), MIL 53 (4-20, 1-14)
• BYE- AUG (17-7, 11-4)
• WBK: @ IWU 90 (16-8, 10-5), NCC 63 (11-13, 7-8)
• Illinois Wesleyan clinches a home game in the CCIW Quarterfinals
• WBK: ELM 75 (10-15, 5-11), @ CAR 73 (11-13, 6-9)
• WBK: @ MIL 82 (16-8, 9-6), NPU 68 (17-7, 10-5)
• Millikin clinches a home game in the CCIW Quarterfinals
• WBK: WHE 71 (18-6, 11-4), @ CRL 54 (8-16, 3-12)
• Wheaton clinches hosting the CCIW Tournament
• WBK: Bye- AUG (12-12, 7-8)

Final Thoughts

I mentioned last year that North Central's win over then-#1 Augustana was the biggest win I've ever seen in person. I think that title is safe, but in terms of the drama... this one is probably going to be pretty high on the list. We called this The Miracle on Brainard Street in the immediate aftermath of the game last night, because, let's be honest: North Central had no business winning this game. Down six with 25 seconds to go, and down four with four seconds to go, your win expectancy has to be less than one percent. But the Cardinals got the breaks they needed and took advantage of them to steal a huge win. The only CCIW prize they were playing for was the outright title, which I'm glad we got to celebrate in front of a home crowd. Otherwise, it's trying to keep yourself in a good position in a chaotic Central Region to try and stay in solid position just in case you need a Pool C bid for the NCAA Tournament. I think the Cardinals are pretty safe, but pulling out this win gives you a little insurance.

The Cardinals close out the regular season on Saturday at Wheaton, who will be trying to get a home game on Tuesday. I'll go over full clinching scenarios later today or tomorrow for both the men's and women's CCIW Tournaments, because there's still a lot up for grabs with one to go.

North Central and the NCAA Regional Rankings: Week 2 Edition

It's a Wednesday in February, which means it's time to take a look at the NCAA regional rankings once again!

This will be the second set of rankings for this season; last weeks rankings, plus a primer on how this all works, is here. The biggest difference between last week's rankings and this week's is that we finally bring in the results against regionally ranked opponents criterion. It's an extra data point, and a fairly critical one that can make a huge difference compared to where we were last week.

So now that the regional advisory committees have spoken, let's take a look at the Central region on both the men's and women's sides and see where North Central stacks up.