Yesterday I tackled the NFC as I condensed everything down for this season into two posts instead of eight. As I've done in years past, I will still do a little bit of a dive into each team along with my prediction for their season. At the end I will reveal my full playoff picture for the AFC.
You also have a couple days to get into the annual Confessions of a Sportscaster Pigskin Pick 'Em contest! Adam and I are renewing this feature for its sixth year (eighth overall going back to the origins of this), so check back here every week for our picks against the spread!
Without further ado or shameless plugging, let's look at the AFC.
AFC South
Common opponents on schedule: AFC West, NFC South
2018: 11-5 (1st), lost in AFC Wild Card Round
So I picked records before the Texans dealt Jadeveon Clowney away, but I don't think it will cause that much to change here. Deshaun Watson is back for his second full season, has some nice weapons, especially DeAndre Hopkins, and got a good left tackle in Laremy Tunsil. The defense even without Clowney is still good led by J.J. Watt and a decent secondary. I think it's enough to get Houston back to the playoffs again.
2019 Prediction: 10-6
2018: 5-11 (4th), missed playoffs
Sacksonville Abbey followed up an AFC title game appearance with a rough 2018 campaign. Blake Bortles is finally gone and in steps Nick Foles, who should drastically improve the Jags' passing game. Leonard Fournette remains a solid piece on the ground, and the defense remains pretty good as one of the best in the AFC last year. That will make it enough for the Jags to compete, but maybe not enough to make the postseason.
2019 Prediction: 8-8
2018: 9-7 (3rd), missed playoffs
I'm not 100 percent sure what to make of the Titans. Adding Cameron Wake to what was a pretty decent defense from last year should help, and Derrick Henry is a good running back. What concerns me is Marcus Mariota. I've been higher on him than Jameis Winston since both broke into the league a few years back, but it's not like Mariota has lit the world on fire either. The pieces here aren't terrible, but with Mariota being something of a question mark, I'm not sure their success is sustainable.
2019 Prediction: 7-9
2018: 10-6 (2nd), lost in AFC Divisional Round
When I originally started plugging in records, I had the Colts at 8-8 and threatening for a playoff spot. Then Andrew Luck called it a career and threw the NFL world into chaos and stirred up a bunch of idiots criticizing him for being soft or some nonsense. Anyway, Jacoby Brissett will take the reins of the offense, and he has some decent weapons in Marlon Mack, T.Y. Hilton, and Eric Ebron. But their defense wasn't good last year, and I don't know that the addition of Justin Houston will be enough. I'm probably being too low on this Colts team, but eight wins was too many and I needed to shuffle things around.
2019 Prediction: 4-12
AFC West
Common opponents on schedule: AFC South, NFC North
2018: 12-4 (1st), lost AFC Championship
Who has two thumbs and was worried "about a fairly raw Mahomes at quarterback" going into last season? Yeah, it's this guy... and I was way off. I don't see why the Chiefs can't do more of the same this year. Kareem Hunt is a freaking idiot and is gone, but Mahomes still has a ton of weapons led by Travis Kelce and the recent addition of Lesean McCoy. They added Tyrann Mathieu to their defense, but it's something of a suspect group especially after they let the Patriots march down the field on them in overtime of the AFC title game, but I think they'll be fine for the regular season. Check back with me in January.
2019 Prediction: 13-3
2018: 12-4 (2nd), lost in AFC Divisional Round
I mean... I had the Chargers winning the division last year, and they tied with the Chiefs at the top, even splitting with them. The Chiefs could have somewhat of a backfield problem with Melvin Gordon holding out and possibly seeking a trade, but Phillip Rivers has enough other weapons around him that losing Gordon might not be a killer. Thomas Davis comes over from Carolina to solidify the linebacking corps for a defense that was good in 2018 and should be good again in 2019. The Chargers will contend for the division crown and have a fallback in place.
2019 Prediction: 11-5, Wild Card
2018: 6-10 (3rd), missed playoffs
It's hard to get a good read on the Broncos. They have a very good defense led by Von Miller and their secondary is nothing to sneeze at. It's their offense that I question. Phillip Lindsay hopes to build off a pretty good rookie year and Joe Flacco is in to stabilize the quarterback role with Drew Lock out for the year, but I'm not sold on what he's got in the way of weapons. A good defense can only take you so far, and while Flacco isn't awful, he's not good enough to put this team over the top in a tough division.
2019 Prediction: 7-9
2018: 4-12 (4th), missed playoffs
I think the less said about this team, the better. Jon Gruden came in and the team went into fire sale mode. Now they're turning into something of a dumpster fire. Adding Antonio Brown may be a huge boon on the field, but whether that will outweigh the cancer that Brown is off the field remains to be seen. It also makes sense that they brought in the thug Vontaze Burfict to help their defense (until he gets suspended again). Derek Carr's leash may be short given all the quarterbacks the Raiders brought in in the offseason. We'll see how this goes.
2019 Prediction: 4-12
AFC North
Common opponents on schedule: AFC East, NFC West
2018: 9-6-1 (2nd), missed playoffs
I was way off on the Steelers, though so were a lot of people as the team turned into a telenovela with Le'Veon Bell holding out for the whole season and Antonio Brown being a diva. Both of those men are gone, but Big Ben remains, and I think he still has something left in the tank. James Conner was pretty good filling the gap left by Bell last year, and the interesting to see will be if Juju Smith-Schuster can be a true number one receiver. Their defense isn't bad either, so I think they'll still be right in the thick of things.
2019 Prediction: 10-6
2018: 7-8-1 (3rd), missed playoffs
Cleveland broke their long losing streak, then became a totally competent team, finishing just a hair under .500 last season. They made some big splashes last year, then made more this past offseason, the most notable of which was trading for Odell Beckham, Jr. This gives Baker Mayfield an elite target alongside Jarvis Landry, and Kareem Hunt will be along in the middle of the year to provide Nick Chubb some backup in the backfield. The defense is solid as well, and while a ton of people are picking the Browns to win the division, I'm tempering my expectations for them just a bit... just not enough to keep them out of the postseason.
2019 Prediction: 9-7, Wild Card
2018: 10-6 (1st), lost in AFC Wild Card Round
The Ravens are an interesting team. By many measures, their defense in 2018 was the best in the AFC, and they added Earl Thomas to an already good secondary. Their offense is a bit of a question. Mark Ingram will be a good piece to lead their running game, but their passing game is a big question mark. Lamar Jackson is a great runner, but that kind of offense isn't sustainable in the NFL, and he'll need to really develop his pocket passing if the Ravens want to be better. I don't know that a full year of Lamar Jackson will be enough to get this team to the postseason, but they'll be in the mix.
2019 Prediction: 8-8
2018: 6-10 (4th), missed playoffs
Cincy finally got rid of a couple problems in head coach Marvin Lewis and thug defender Vontaze Burfict. The defense on paper should be okay, especially up front, but they were bad last year, and I don't know that they have the reinforcements to shore that up. Their offense shouldn't be bad either, but Andy Dalton is not a great quarterback and A.J. Green is banged up as we go into the season. Their backfield might be decent if nothing else, but I'm not sold on this team at all.
2019 Prediction: 4-12
AFC East
Common opponents on schedule: AFC North, NFC East
2018: 11-5 (1st), Won Super Bowl LIII
Look, we all know how this is going to go. New England will look a little rusty/hungover/old early in the year, people will write them off, then they'll go on a tear en route to probably at least the AFC title game. Tom Brady will help ensure that with his monstrously diverse rushing attack and a passing game that loses Gronk but gains Demariyus Thomas, along with an underrated defense. And you've heard the saying a ton, but I'm repeating it... never count out Touchdown Tom.
2019 Prediction: 12-4
2018: 4-12 (4th), missed playoffs
I'm not entirely sure how sold I am on the Jets, but I know they got better. Their defense was awful in 2018, and while I think they'll be better, I don't know that they'll be that much better. The big improvement comes on offense in the form of Le'Veon Bell, freed from Yinzerland. Bell is fresh after sitting out all of 2018, but that could mean rust; we'll have to see. The bigger question mark, of course, is Sam Darnold. He had an all right rookie year but has a lot of room for growth, and under Adam Gase's tutelage may take that next step. It won't be enough to get the Jets to playoff contention, but they'll be better.
2019 Prediction: 7-9
2018: 6-10 (3rd), missed playoffs
I'd hype up Buffalo's defense, but they were average to maybe slightly below average in 2018. I'd maybe peg them to be a little better, but I don't know what to make of the offense. Gone is Lesean McCoy in an 11th hour trade, with the ageless Frank Gore coming in to help bolster an attack now led by Devin Singletary. I'm less than enthused. I'm even less so when you consider the passing game. Josh Allen is still an unknown quantity at this point in time, and it's not like he has outstanding weapons to work with. All told, I think the Bills will be mediocre.
2019 Prediction: 7-9
2018: 7-9 (2nd), missed playoffs
I look at Miami's record from 2018, then at their roster, then at Pro Football Reference's Simple Rating System that had the Dolphins as the second-worst team in the AFC last year... and now my brain hurts. That's an incredible amount of luck (their Pythagorean record backs this up; they had the point differential of a five win team). Now led by Ryan Fitzpatrick for the moment, with some okay weapons in Kenyan Drake and Devante Parker, makes me think this team could replicate their 2018 luck, but these things tend to regress, and given a subpar defense... I think this will come to pass.
2019 Prediction: 6-10
1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
2. New England Patriots (12-4)
3. Houston Texans (10-6)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
6. Cleveland Browns (9-7)
No comments:
Post a Comment