Confessions of a Sportscaster has largely gone by the wayside with the chaos of life in general, but the one longest running feature will continue for its 13th overall season and 11th featuring its main participants.
Every year, I've been doing NFL picks against the spread, often failing fairly miserably, sometimes acquitting myself fairly well. I'm hoping 2024 will be a redemption year, because 2023 was... not good. It follows a pattern though, looking back.
For those of you new to COAS, we have an annual group on ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'Em contest where we pick games against the spread set on ESPN and try to see how well we fare. My picks, along with a rationale, will appear here weekly every Thursday morning (earlier for holiday weeks). But it wouldn't be as much fun if it was just me. So joining me once again this season is Adam Quinn, who won the column title in 2023 by a wide margin. Joe Klecka will also have his picks featured on a weekly basis. Also in the ESPN group, though their picks will not appear in the column, are 2023 champion and co-host of Then There Were Two: A History of the World Series Geoffrey Clark, Joe's uncle Jim, and rounding out our group this year are a couple new entries in Adam's friend John and my seven year old son Matthew.
While ESPN keeps track of scores, I also tally up how we've picked in relation to each other on a weekly basis on a Google sheet. In 2023 Adam accounted for nearly half of all "hero" picks (i.e. he was the only one to pick a team in a game) and hit on a group-best 66% of those games. That seems to be a key factor in figuring out who wins.
So as we prepare for another amazing season of NFL football, for our opening act groupthink largely prevails as Adam and I disagree on four games, Joe and I on six, and the two of them on four games out of 16. Let's play!
Thursday Night
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Lucas: Ravens. Visiting teams crashing the champions' parties has become a trend in recent years; the past two seasons the visitor has won outright and we've seen three straight where they've at least covered the spread. Given that this is a likely playoff preview, I'll take the road team here to win this meaningful game... which will inevitably mean the Chiefs will stomp the Ravens in January because we cannot have nice things.
Adam: Ravens. Great game to start off the season; KC coming off the Super Bowl and Baltimore ready for me to low key forget they are good. Nay nay I say, not now. With Jackson and Ol’ Man Henry aka The Euphoric Violet Gazelle aka Derick Henry, I like the cover at least if not the outright win for the Ravens.
Joe: Ravens.
Friday Night
Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)
Lucas: Packers. The ascension begins. Also since we're in Brazil for the first time:
Lucas note: Yeah, Brayden Narveson bounced around four different college programs, signed as an undrafted free agent with the Titans in May, then when he didn't make their 53, instead of getting a practice squad spot landed a spot on Green Bay's 53. Kicking is voodoo sometimes.
Joe: Eagles.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Atlanta is gonna stymie the bejesus out of Arthur Smith for revenge, it's gonna be great.
Adam: Falcons. I am putting Atlanta on my list of teams that will have a marked improvement over last year. Maybe even with the division... but in any case better than 7-10. Also mark it now: Bijan goes berserk and wins RB1 with ease, not even close.
Lucas note: Again: Arthur Smith.
Joe: Falcons.
Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
Lucas: Bills. This has to be the last true shot with this core, right? Arizona should prove to be a good tuneup if nothing else.
Adam: Bills. This line is a thinker. Buffalo is the better team, but with Kyler coming off his Call of Duty deployment from last year and the new addition of Harrison Jr, it could be interesting... or at least I can see a back door cover.
Joe: Bills.
Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears (-4.5)
Lucas: Bears. I have conflicting feelings about the local team coming into this year. They seem like they're building into something that in 2024 will at minimum be competitive. And yet... all I hear is the slurping of Caleb Williams before he's even thrown an official NFL pass and all these wild claims of supremacy when I heard all this talk a year ago get silenced immediately by Ownership in Week 1. The Bears will get off to a good start, if not because of Williams then because a pretty good defense will give Will Levis fits. But let's pump the brakes here a bit, okay?
Adam: Bears. All Hail Caleb!
Lucas note: Sigh.
Joe: Bears.
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Look, this is purely a points pick. Yes, the Patriots suck, but I'm feeling either a back door cover or Cincy lowkey struggles out of the gate.
Adam: Bengals. Even with Chase’s uncertainty I like the Bengals here. After a disappointing 2023 campaign riddled with injuries to Burrow, I see 2024 being much improved. New England won’t even be close this week and why I have taken the Bengals as my survivor pick this week.
Lucas note: I think it's a smart pick.
Joe: Bengals.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (+1.5)
Lucas: Texans. Because I'm not picking against this.
Joe: Texans.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. I'll be interested to see if T-Law lives up to the Brinks truck that showed up to his house this offseason. Miami's better on the whole though.
Adam: Dolphins. This game has the chance to be a close game or a runaway, and by either team. For that reason, I am just taking the home team and hoping. Also, this is the type of game that can make McDaniel age 20 years...
Joe: Dolphins.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
Lucas: Saints. I just have a little more trust in them than I do a team that was godawful in 2023.
Adam: Saints. Ahhhh, this is a game I can see Carolina succeeding. There is just too much bad from last year that I cannot bring myself to pick them over the Saints. And this is not a suggestion that the Saints will be anything much this year; I just need to see it to believe it first for the Panthers.
Joe: Saints.
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants (+1.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Just because we have to keep the North interesting to start things off. Also I don't trust the Giants.
Adam: Vikings. Serious question: how many games does Daniel “Giraffe Neck” Jones start and is it more or less than Tommy “Da Stromboli” DeVito?
Lucas note: I think more. Probably about a 2:1 ratio would be my shot in the dark.
Joe: Giants.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
Lucas: Chargers. Really, I should pick against them for not going with another anime schedule release, but it would've been hard to top last year's. And they went The Sims route for this year, which isn't bad.
Joe: Chargers.
Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)
Lucas: Seahawks.
Joe: Broncos.
Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns (+1.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. Adam may appreciate this note: over the weekend we had a neighborhood cookout, and my next door neighbor's brother from Texas was up to visit. I overheard him refer to Dallas as the "Cowgirls," so I of course had to introduce the concept of the Heiferladies. We're nowhere near this yet; I think they take care of business in Week 1. Not gonna stop me from going back one more time to laugh hysterically at them (Editor note: video contains NSFW language but also three minutes of beautiful laughter.)
Lucas note: You know what? One more time for the lulz.
Joe: Browns.Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5)Ezekiel Elliott got absolutely lit up playing center on the Cowboys final play 😳 pic.twitter.com/q7h5tMRRf5
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) January 23, 2023
Lucas: Buccaneers. I trust them more than I do Washington, Sorry, Wildflower.
Adam: Commanders. Lets see what the #2 draft pick can do. Maybe not the win, but taking 4.5 is enticing.
Joe: Buccaneers.
Sunday Night
Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions (-3.5)
Lucas: Lions. Again, the North is going to be off to a good start.
Adam: Lions. This seems like a gift line; I’ll happily give 3.5 at home against the Rams. If the Bears don’t win the North, this is the next most likely team with them returning many of the same offensive playmakers as last year. I see nothing but good things to happen in the Motor City.
Joe: Lions.
Monday Night
New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
Lucas: Jets. Because there's no way Rodgers blows his Achilles four plays into the year again... right?
Adam: Jets. Four plays; 94 seconds. That’s 1:34; that is all Rodgers needs to eclipse in order to earn more than the $81.14 in performance based pay he earned last year... lol. I wish I could find a line to see the over/under on how long he plays this year. I am predicting he gets injured early in the season again...
Joe: 49ers.
Records Last Year
Lucas: 123-149
Adam: 149-123
Joe: 134-138
Geoffrey: 151-121
Jim: 138-134
John: 0-0
Matthew: 0-0
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