This week ran the gamut for the group from good to bad, but the standings by and large stay the same. Adam did extend his lead by taking three of five from me, though we increased our gap with Joe as I took four of five from him and Adam took five of their six. At this point, seven games separate first place from last place, and five of the seven pickers are within four games of each other.
You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. As a group, we went 1 out of 3 on hero picks, but we're still hitting on over 50% of them as a group. Adam and I are the only two not to lose a hero pick through three weeks (granted, out of a sample size of 2 apiece). We're also just over .500 on consensus picks.
As we look ahead, Adam and I disagree on eight games this week, while Joe disagrees with each of us on six games. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (+4.5)
Lucas: Giants. Honestly, I think I'd like a couple more points here, but I'll take the gamble. Starting to think Week 1 said more about the Browns than it did about Dallas. Adam, how close are we to Cowgirl territory here?
Adam: Cowboys. This almost a feel of “must win” for Dallas as much as you can have a "must win" game can be in Week 4. 2-2 Dallas is much different than 1-3 Dallas. Also considering many people expected them to be 2-1 at this point ready to go 3-1 or even 4-0...
Sunday, Early Afternoon
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
Lucas: Saints. I'm inclined to believe the Saints we saw the first two weeks are probably closer to the real Saints. Also this line allows for the Falcons to continue to do dumb [expletive] to lose a game.
Joe: Falcons.
Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Lucas: Rams. I went back and forth on this one. I'm still gonna refrain from crapping too hard on Caleb Williams, but I'm already wondering if the cycle is just going to continue given the bad playcalling (that 4th and 1 toss), poor situational awareness (how do you not know you need to go for two when you score a touchdown to cut it to five?!) just likely means Matt Eberflus and Shane Waldron will be gone after this year, meaning a brand new coaching staff will need to teach him a new offense, set him back, and he'll struggle and get dealt for a third round pick in 2028 as the Bears have to draft yet another quarterback.
Adam: Bears. I don’t like it. I don’t like the line, I don’t like my pick. But the Rams are all kids of hurt and had to rely on its running backs to pull them back into the game last week. I like the Bears' D to keep them in this game and Caleb to continue his learning and growth.
Joe: Bears.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Lucas: Packers. My head says don't do it. My heart says the run Sam Darnold is on is unsustainable. Also, it's nice to have a good safety again. Also also, I miss you, Aaron Jones.
Adam: Packers. Darnold and Jefferson continue to perform above expectations at this point, being 3-0 is 2 games better than most expected and certainly better than my expected 1-2 record. But the last 2 wins have been at home, and one was against what we know now as a less than impressive SF team. So I’ll lay the points with Green Bay at home.
Joe: Vikings.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts (+1.5)
Lucas: Steelers. Anthony Richardson has been incredibly polarizing so far. The potential is there, but he's also made some mystifyingly dumb decisions. And against this Steelers defense, I don't trust him.
Adam: Steelers. I don’t trust either of these teams nor either of these QBs, but all things considered this game is in line with the other three games the Steelers have played with Fields under center (i.e. against non-playoff teams, or at least teams I don’t expect to make the playoffs). I’ll lay the points.
Joe: Steelers.
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets (-6.5)
Lucas: Jets. Rodgers is starting to look more like himself again, and that might mean bad things for some of the rest of the AFC. Let's see how he does against other good competition... but this ain't it this week.
Adam: Broncos. This is purely a gut pick. The Jets are good, but they just haven’t really shown me what I wanted/expected to see from them at this point. They lost to what we now know is a mid-49ers, beat a bad Tennessee team but only by a touchdown, and crushed a way overperforming New England at home. Give me Nix and the points for his coming out party.
Joe: Jets.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Philly went and put the clamps on the Saints this past week, and Saquon is on a tear to start the year. It continues.
Adam: Eagles. Another line I don’t like. And no hate to anyone taking Tampa, I just think this game comes down to which running back is better, and Barkley is far and away the better one. Lay the points and hope there is nothing crazy that happens.
Joe: Eagles.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers (+4.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Seriously: how damning is it that Andy Dalton put up the line he did with the same weapons and line as Bryce Young? They broke him; it's the only explanation. Cincy started to look more like themselves last week (I cut it from the column, but Adam was only off by about 30 yards on the Burrow-Chase connection) and they get a Carolina team that will probably regress to their mean this week.
Adam: Bengals. This like is clearly an overreaction to the Red Rocket coming out and shooting his shots last week. (See what I did there?) But in all seriousness, the Bengals are a much better team than 0-3. And this is the spot that they have to show that. I know the odds of making the playoffs after staring 0-3 are like 1 out of a lot, but I can still see them wining 9-10 games this season and sneaking in. Like the Cowboys, this is as much of a “must win” as it can be in Week 4.
Joe: Bengals.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-6.5)
Lucas: Texans. I see the Strouds playing the long game...
Joe: Jaguars.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Washington Commanders @ Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)
Lucas: Commanders. Carrying over from what may have been Jayden Daniels' breakout game.
Adam: Cardinals. People need to pump the breaks a little with Daniels. Yes, he looked good, and yes, it's clear he is a capable QB. But from the analysis I was seeing on different NFL programs Tuesday was that Washington was spoon feeding him effectively college offense-type plays with max protection and a O-line that can actually block (no I’m not salty, you’re salty). This is also supported by him rushing 12 times; when you have max protect, it leaves 4-5 DBs to cover 3 WRs. Off my soap box now.
Lucas note: It's almost like when you surround your highly touted quarterback prospect with talent and an offensive line and scheme to their strengths, good things happen. Funny how that works (see Willis, Malik).
Joe: Commanders.
New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
Lucas: Patriots. I probably shouldn't, but with the Niners getting smoked by Minnesota then following that up with whatever the heck you call the Rams game, I'm not ready to lay double digits.
Adam: Patriots. Ahh the dreaded 10 point line. This is a mix of San Francisco losing to the Rams and New England getting spanked by the Jets. I like the Niners to win, but the Patriots to rebound and make it at the very least an entertaining game. A line closer to seven might have made me flip.
Joe: 49ers.
Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)
Lucas: Raiders. I remember seeing something about the Raiders and losing to new head coaches. Good thing this isn't Kevin Stefanski's first rodeo.
Adam: Raiders. This is a tough line; I think it could go either way. Minshew is still starting after the- dare I say embarrassing- loss to the Panthers and will likely have a short leash that could get pulled at any in favor of Aiden O’Connell. But I’ll roll with the home team laying the short 1.5 points.
Joe: Raiders.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (+7.5)
Lucas: Chargers. Mainly a points pick so we can have a game going down to the wire that may or may not get decided by a questionable call.
Adam: Chiefs. To say that KC has been on the receiving end of some calls and/or missed opportunities from the other team would be an understatement. But you still have to be good to be in those positions, and all of this is being done without your lead back and pretty much ignoring Mr. T. Swift all season. The Chargers have been serviceable but against what, subpar non-playoff teams and the one possible playoff team they face they lost by 10. I see the same here. KC by 14 13 for Mr. Tay Tay’s Bae.
Joe: Chargers.
Sunday Night
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
Lucas: Bills. Buffalo's been great so far, I see that continuing.
Adam: Bills. Baltimore is better than 1-2, but Buffalo has looked great, scoring 31 or more points in the first 3 games. I don’t see the A Train getting stopped any time soon. Buffalo straight.
Joe: Bills.
Monday Night
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (+0.5)
Lucas: Dolphins.
Adam: Titans. I would not have believed you if you said that this would be the line for this game at the start of the season... though without Tua and the way Tennessee has played, it makes sense. And in a lot of ways, the Titans have been their own worst enemy. I’ll take the chance that Tennessee breaks through.Will Levis might be 38-of-60 passing.
— Alfredo Brown (@AlfredoABrown) September 22, 2024
But he’s 3-for-3 on photo opps. 🎯 pic.twitter.com/09tHixpKJE
Joe: Dolphins.
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions (-4.5)
Lucas: Lions. Can't have shady [expletive] happening in Seattle if the game is not in Seattle.
Joe: Lions.
Records So Far
Lucas: 25-23 (8-8 last week)
Adam: 27-21 (9-7 last week)
Joe: 20-28 (5-11 last week)
Geoffrey: 24-24 (8-8 last week)
Jim: 21-27 (5-11 last week)
John: 23-25 (11-5 last week)
Matthew: 23-25 (7-9 last week)
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