So far, even year magic is working fairly well. As a group we had a good opening slate, splitting our two consensus picks and finishing above .500 combined between the seven of us, and a year after we hit on just over 50 percent of hero picks collectively (mostly thanks to Adam), we went 2-3 this week.
Column wise I'm off to a good start after taking three of four from Adam and four of six from Joe; they split their four disputed games. Group wise, this has me one off the overall lead after I missed the Monday night game.
You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. As we look ahead now to Week 2, Adam and I disagree on seven games, Joe and I on four, and the two of them on seven games out of 16. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. We talk up home field advantage up north in the later months of the regular season and playoffs, but I feel like it's only recently we've started to really delve into home field advantage down south, especially with Miami. Granted, weather will probably be less impactful in prime time, but I'll ride it. Also, this is spite pick against a**hole Miami-Dade police officers who need to be fired.
Adam: Bills. Tough line here; I can see it going either way. But at the end of the day, I don’t think Miami’s D can hold down Allen like Miami Dade’s finest can hold down Tyreek Buffalo’s D can hold back Tyreek...I’ll take the points and look for a straight up win by the Bills.
Joe: Dolphins.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Lucas: Saints. I could see this being a bit of a shootout. Honestly I'm just taking the points.
Adam: Cowboys. I get it, the Saints manhandled the Panthers in the opener. But so did the Cowboys against the Browns. This line looks like a little much of an overcorrection based on the margin of the Saints' win. I’ll happily lay the touchdown. Plus we need to build up the Boyz higher to make the fall greater.
Joe: Cowboys.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions (-6.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Another points pick. I think Detroit wins, but this line seems a little high this early.
Adam: Buccaneers. This is a gut pick. I think the Lions are the better team here, but Tampa came out feisty last week and I think that becomes a theme this whole year. Lions win, but closer than maybe expected.
Joe: Buccaneers.
Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers (+3.5)
Lucas: Colts. Look, I'd probably have picked this way even before the Jordan Love injury. Honestly, I'm cautiously optimistic on the whole, but in Pigskin Pick 'Em history, this game burns the bejesus out of me every four years. Not again. (And hey, if I miss this one, it's likely due to Green Bay pulling an upset!)
Adam: Packers. Ehhhhhhh, I think this line is an overreaction to the loss of Love. Willis is a very capable passer and will easily bus drive this offense to a win. Plus, I think Richardson’s success last week was more a function of it being Week 1 with no tape on him since Week 5 last year and Houston's D still gelling.
Joe: Colts.
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans (+3.5)
Lucas: Jets. Look, if you're gonna blow a lead to a team that doesn't even score a freaking offensive touchdown (again: pump the brakes, Bears fans), you don't deserve to get picked.
Adam: Jets. Did anyone catch the Mayo Man’s reaction to the pick 6 he threw vs the Bears? Oh the memes.
Joe: Jets.
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San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings (+4.5)
Lucas: 49ers. Bit of a step up in weight class for Minnesota this week. Also, definitely glad I signed Jordan Mason as Christian McCaffrey insurance prior to Week 1.
Adam: 49ers. Not gonna lie; Minnesota surprised with just how good they looked, but that's also a function of playing the G-Men. This line looks way overcorrected. Assuming we don’t get another unexpected last minute Run CMC scratch, San Francisco rolls.
Joe: 49ers.
Seattle Seahawks @ New England Patriots (+3.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. I had to dig back through old podcast scripts and look at some scores. If I counted right, West Coast teams going east to play at noon last year went 12-14 against the spread. So slight advantage to the home teams, but not by a ton, which makes sense. I think this is one, especially with the Pats getting the Week 1 victory, we see more along the line of what we expected coming into the season.
Adam: Patriots. Call this my own overreaction pick, but Seattle struggled against Denver and New England took care of business against the Bengals, who now remain winless in week 1 since 2013. I’ll give the Patriots the benefit of the doubt right now.
Joe: Seahawks.
New York Giants @ Washington Commanders (-2.5)
Lucas: Commanders. Remind me to apologize to the entire country of Germany in November. Commanders by a bunch.
Adam: Commanders. Please please please for the love of all things holy, New York, never ever ever wear those uniforms ever again. Just burn them and pretend like it never happened.
Joe: Commanders.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Carolina Panthers (+6.5)
Lucas: Chargers.
Adam: Chargers. LOL, The Panthers, LOL.
Joe: Chargers.
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Tough one I could see going either way. I'll grab the home team here.
Adam: Jaguars. Some are reporting that the Browns players are no longer behind Watson as the QB. Ever since the trade, time off, and then injury he has just never reclaimed the talent of his early career... I am not fully ready to write that off yet, but he won’t get any help facing the Jags.
Joe: Browns.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I just don't think the Raiders have the firepower to keep up enough to make this single digits. Watch them make a furious two minute comeback to make it a one score game, then fail the onside kick so the straight pick would be right still.
Adam: Raiders. Sprinkle a little here, and a dash there... oh hey just tossing some Minshew Magic dust around. Who’s ready for cut off jeans man!!!!!!!!!! AHHHHHHHHHHHH. We gonna get the magic I feel it in the air.
Joe: Ravens.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (-0.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. I may regret this, but I feel obligated to start my solidarity picks a little early this year. Don Beebe, I love you, but your team is gonna get obliterated this week.
Adam: Rams. I don’t like this pick, and I don’t like the line, which means inevitably one of the teams will win by 14. Just hoping its (Stafford + Team) – Puka = W.
Joe: Rams.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (+2.5)
Lucas: Steelers. Justin Fields, let's ride?
Adam: Steelers. Breaking news, at least when I am writing this on Tuesday afternoon: Fields to start over Wilson again in Week 2. I am just waiting for Tomlin to say he will stick with Fields going forward and see Wilson never hit the field, but wear the captain C... lol.
Joe: Steelers.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Rough start in Cincy is only going to continue.
Adam: Bengals. Cincy cost me (and a lot of people on my survivor league). In all honesty, it was a mixture of things: Burrow coming off hand surgery and the fact he was down 1.5 recievers; Higgins was out and Chase was 50% at best. I see that changing up this week.
Joe: Chiefs.
Sunday Night
Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans (-6.5)
Lucas: Texans. NO MOON NO MOON NO MOON STROUDS STROUDS STROUDS STROUDS.
Adam: Texans. Considering how the Bears offense played last week, this seems like a crap shoot. If Williams plays better, the Bears cover. I just think he needs a few more weeks, but it will be good learning.
Joe: Bears.
Monday Night
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Kirk didn't look great, and I don't think help is coming.
Adam: Eagles. Wow Cousins looked lost out there at times. Maybe the Penix pick isn’t such a weird pick. Maybe a touch too early, but how much dead cap would it cost the Falcons if they cut Cousins? Or better yet, he becomes trade bait for the first season-ending QB injury.
Lucas note: I doubt he's getting cut this season...
Records Last Week
Lucas: 10-6
Adam: 8-8
Joe: 8-8
Geoffrey: 11-5
Jim: 11-5
John: 7-9
Matthew: 7-9
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