I mean, not for me. While I'm on a bit of a heater, it's come far too little and far too late to be of any impact as I'm locked into the basement of the group for 2023. And so it's little solace that I split my six disputed games with Adam from last week's podcast, though he and I each took three of five disputed games from Joe.
It was solid week for the coalition, all told, as Geoffrey takes a one game lead over Adam going into the final lap. Jim and Joe both sit around the .500 mark, while I'm locked into a losing campaign and can only catch Joe if I run the table and he loses out. You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. Geoffrey's ridden consistency in all categories this season and has the second best hero success rate in the group, but in a fairly small sample size. Adam, meanwhile, has gone hero in a staggering 18 percent of games this year and has hit at an absurd rate up until the past couple of weeks as the regression to the mean I've been screaming about all year is finally catching up with him. We did jump back above .500 in consensus picks this week after a drop off in Week 16, if nothing else.
And so as we get started with our final round of the 2023 season, I invited our current leader in the clubhouse to join the column this week. Geoffrey's picks will appear below along with Adam's and Joe's. Among the usual columnists, Adam and I disagree on nine games, Joe and I on seven, and the two of them on eight games. The most important number to look at this week: Geoffrey and Adam disagree on seven games out of 16 in their race for a group championship.
Without further ado, for the final time this season, let's get to it!
Saturday Afternoon
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (+3.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I hate that this is what I'm basing this pick off of, but let's rip the band-aid off. Brad Allen is a bad NFL referee, so of course the same guy that was responsible for the horrible final minute of Chiefs-Packers was the same [expletive] guy who so horribly botched the eligibility reporting in Lions-Cowboys last week. And don't fall for the NFL's propaganda covering up Allen's incompetence. Anyway... I went and looked up team records in games Allen has officiated. This will be his second Ravens-Steelers game (he worked one in Pittsburgh in 2020, won by the Steelers). Pittsburgh is 5-3 in games officiated by Allen; the Ravens are 9-3. I can't ignore that, just like I can't ignore that this crew will inevitably screw something up on Saturday. Sometimes I hate the NFL... but I just can't quit it.
Adam: Steelers. Having sealed up the AFC #1 seed, there is no reason the Ravens will play anyone of consequence. And the Steelers have to win and get some help to make the playoffs, so they are much more interested in this win.
Joe: Ravens.
Geoffrey: Ravens. No Jackson, no problem. The Steelers still aren't in the same league as the Ravens, so the choice here is easy.
Saturday Night
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Lucas: Texans. I mean, do you want to pick against this psychopath?
Lucas note: Adam's pick edited for postseason picture clarity.
Joe: Colts.
Geoffrey: Texans. You could flip a coin for this one, but the Texans have just enough to pull out a squeaker much to the dismay of the Indy faithful.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5)
Lucas: Browns. Not really anything for either team to play for since the Browns are locked into 5, but still, I'll take the points.
Adam: Bengals. This is more of a pride of Ohio game than anything. Cleveland cannot improve its position, nor can Cincy make it in, so yeah.
Joe: Bengals.
Geoffrey: Browns. This will be a tuneup for Cleveland, who will face a Bengals team undoubtedly still stinging from a close loss to the Chiefs. No matter what happens though, Bengals fans still have enough Skyline Chili to get through a zombie apocalypse.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (-3.5)
Lucas: Lions. Don't bet against Pissed Off Dan Campbell.
Adam: Vikings. For pride. Minnesota also need to win plus a LOT of help to even have a chance, so yeah.
Joe: Lions.
Geoffrey: Lions. Detroit seemed to suck out whatever life the Vikings had left a couple of weeks ago. Time for them to finish the job.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (+4.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Fighting for their playoff lives, I'm sure the Jags come out to play. We might also see the swan song of one Ryan Tannehill in this one.
Adam: Jaguars. That is all.
Joe: Jaguars.
Geoffrey: Jaguars. Whether or not the Jaguars have Trevor Lawrence available, you simply need to discount the team that's already been eliminated. Time for Lawrence to shine though.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-2.5)
Lucas: Jets. Just playing a hunch. Godspeed, Bill.
Adam: Jets. I want to send Belichick off in the best way possible: with an L.
Joe: Patriots.
Geoffrey: Jets. Hoping they can send Bill Belichick into retirement much like the Bears did to Brett Favre. A loss to the Jets would be the ultimate last insult to the Patriots' season, too.
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Lucas: Saints. Apparently since they can shut down Baker Mayfield... I think they win to at least give themselves a shot at Tank Division. Unfortunately for the Saints though... the team they're chasing gets the Panthers.
Adam: Saints. Like many before, the Saints need to win and get some help. So more interested this game than the effectively eliminated Falcons.
Joe: Falcons.
Geoffrey: Saints. New Orleans is decent enough, and the Falcons have no business being alive going into the last week of the season. Did you not see what the Bears did to the Falcons?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (+5.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Not as strong of a 4 seed as I would have figured after last week. Good for whoever gets the 5... maybe.
Adam: Buccaneers. Just because who doesn’t want to see the Carolina’s owner throw drinks on opposing teams fans? Maybe he can get some pointers from Mrs. Stafford.
Joe: Buccaneers.
Geoffrey: Buccaneers. The Bucs could play all second-teamers in this game and probably still win handily. The Panthers have absolutely no reason to be fired up about this game.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
Lucas: Packers. I can't help but be a little worried, given that 2023 was bookended by convincing Packer wins over the Vikings leading into a win-and-in situation at Lambeau in Week 18, which... did not go well last time. And while the Bears have continued to look better as the season has gone along, it seems fitting that we close it out where Jordan Love can cement his inheritance from his predecessor and send Green Bay back to the playoffs sooner than anticipated.
Adam: Bears. Just because I want to see Green Bay go home and cry when they miss the playoffs in a game they just win and they are in... sorry not sorry.
Joe: Packers.
Geoffrey: Bears. Sorry, Lucas, but I can't come to this site without causing you some discomfort. The Bears are riding high right now, and that will give them the motivation to knock the Packers out of the playoffs.
Lucas note: Are you sorry, though?
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
Lucas: Raiders. We recorded the podcast last week prior to the announcement that Russell Wilson was getting benched for the remainder of the season. So now that we've confirmed that the Seahawks absolutely fleeced the Broncos, I see the Raiders finishing the season strong for Antonio Pierce, who should probably get a shot full time.
Adam: Raiders. Does this game even matter? Not to me it doesn’t.
Lucas note: I mean, the time zones are the only reason this game is in the late afternoon slot.
Joe: Raiders.
Geoffrey: Raiders. It no doubt has been a tough season for the Raiders with a coaching change among other things. The least they can do is salvage some pride by tying the Broncos for this season.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (+5.5)
Lucas: Giants. The Eagles are going to choke, fall to the 5 seed and lose to the Tank Division champion, aren't they. I normally reserve this for Mount Union-related lolz, but this works too.
Joe: Eagles.
Geoffrey: Giants. The vibes around the Eagles simply are not good right now, and it wouldn't be surprising at all to see the Giants surprise some people. In fact, we borderline want to see it.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. Though I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to a repeat of this gem.
Joe: Seahawks.
Geoffrey: Seahawks. Any self-respecting team won't let the Cardinals beat them when their playoff hopes remain alive. The Seahawks at least should understand this if nothing else.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. They'll get one more win... and then who knows what'll happen in the playoffs.
Adam: Chiefs. I see a break out game by Toney; he only has 3 dropped passes.
Joe: Chiefs.
Geoffrey: Chiefs. It hasn't been the easiest season for the Kansas City Swifties, but this is the right playoff tuneup for them. Maybe it will give them the confidence they need to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Lucas: 49ers. Not really anything for either team to play for, but I see the Niners at least trying to work out any last minute kinks prior to their bye.
Adam: Rams. What could have been a good game last week or a week prior to that, but no impact here.
Joe: 49ers.
Geoffrey: Rams. The 49ers have nothing left to play for until a couple of weeks from now. I easily can see them taking it easy against a Rams team that also has little on the line.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders (+13.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. Okay, my dream scenario: the Cowboys win this one to lock up the 2 seed... and guess who they would face in the Wild Card Round?
Joe: Commanders.
Geoffrey: Cowboys. Dallas will be damned if they lose the division because they lost to its bottom-feeder. That should be motivation enough.
Sunday Night
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+2.5)
Lucas: Bills. Right call for the final game of the regular season. Miami and December seem to be a problem, and while I think they bounce back from getting absolutely destroyed by the Ravens last week, it won't quite be enough and they'll have to play road spoiler this January. Watch your tables, everyone.
Adam: Dolphins. Not sure why the Fins are dogs at home in a game that could decide a home game next week or not.
Joe: Dolphins.
Geoffrey: Bills. It's easy to see why this will be the Sunday Night Football contest. This could go either way, but I gotta go with the team with more recent success.
Records So Far
Lucas: 112-144 (10-6 last week)
Adam: 139-117 (10-6 last week)
Joe: 128-128 (9-7 last week)
Geoffrey: 140-116 (11-5 last week)
Jim: 129-127 (9-7 last week)
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