Adam has often said that Week 2 is when we start to see things get more towards the norm for a season compared to the surprise of Week 1. I'm hoping that's not a sign, as he took five of seven games from both me and Joe last week; Joe and I split our four disputed games. Adam's strong Week 2 showing has him in first place among the group, a game ahead of me. Most of the rest of the group is still right in the mix, though John has fallen to the back of the pack, six games off the pace.
You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. We're continuing to do fairly well on consensus picks, and folks who have gone hero so far are 6-4 in such games. I think my favorite sub-stat of that is that the three of us columnists are a combined 5-0 when we've gone hero. Again... I hope this isn't an omen because regression to the mean never happened for Adam last year.
Looking ahead now, I disagree with five games apiece with Adam and Joe, and the two of them on six games out of 16. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
New England Patriots @ New York Jets (-6.5)
Lucas: Patriots. This is honestly a points pick. The Jets haven't really impressed through two weeks, and this will be Rodgers' first action back at MetLife since he blew out his Achilles. I don't think an injury is forthcoming, but I need to see more from the Jets on the whole.
Adam: Jets. Ehhhh, New England has played better than most have expected. But I am not sold on them yet, so give me the TNF meltdown. Jets by a mile.
Joe: Patriots.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
Lucas: Giants. I look forward to having this on a loop as I stare at the scoreboard showing a three score Browns lead at like 2:30 on Sunday.
Joe: Browns.
Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Lucas: Packers. This line is more backwards than Will Levis' lateral against the Jets. MALIK WILLIS REVENGE GAME INCOMING.
Joe: Packers.
Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Lucas: Bears. So in my text thread with Joe and Adam, I've taken some implied potshots at Caleb Williams. But to be completely fair... it's not his fault he has no offensive line. And yet even with that, the Bears are going up against a team with a porous run defense, which might help take some of the pressure off Williams. Bears fans, I'd just have a little concern even through two weeks, because David Carr comparisons might be forthcoming.
Adam: Bears. This is a purely line pick but I like the Bears to win outright. This is also a much softer spot than last Sunday night. Williams needs this game to find a groove; to this point he has performed a little behind where I would have liked compared to other rookie QBs over their first two games in the past.
Joe: Bears.
Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)
Lucas: Texans. Minnesota has been a surprise through two weeks. But the Vikings had better be careful, especially if they hear boss music this week.
Joe: Texans.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
Lucas: Saints. I expected New Orleans to at least compete with Dallas last week... I didn't expect what we got. I think this continues, at least for now.
Adam: Saints. Saw a stat that showed the top three teams in terms of points scored over the first two games of a season. New Orleans is 2nd on that list. The other two won the Super Bowl. I'm not ready to crown this team a Super Bowl contender yet, but this will be a telling game. I’ll see if they can let the good times roll and take the Saints at home.
Lucas note: I tried to dig to find some supporting information. The nugget I found was that the only team that's scored more points through their first two games: the 2009 Saints, who did in fact win the Super Bowl.
Joe: Saints.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
Lucas: Steelers. STILLERS GAHNTA SUPER BOWL?
Adam: Chargers. On the road, I get it. In fact, I think I saw they stayed on the east coast since they played in Carolina last week. Also, Fields is going to be under center again so I like Pittsburgh to win, but the Chargers make it close.
Joe: Chargers.
Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Baker gonna bake.
Adam: Broncos. Call this my “Have you lost your mind?” pick. Baker has been solid, but cooled off last week from his fantastic start. Maybe this is a game Tampa overlooks, or maybe it’s the Bo Nix coming out game. But I like taking the points here.
Joe: Buccaneers.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Carolina Panthers @ Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)
Lucas: Raiders. I'm sorry, not even the Red Rifle can save the Panthers.
Adam: Raiders. LOL Carolina LOL. Oh and you still owe us a pick. LOL.
Joe: Raiders. Sorry Red Rifle.
Miami Dolphins @ Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. In a vacuum, this line almost seems to high. But factor in a game at Seattle with Tua out (and honestly, he should consider retirement at this point to save his life) and I'll lay the points.
Adam: Seahawks. Look, Tua can make his own medical decisions, but in my opinion he needs to hang it up. And if he doesn’t mid-year, then whichever comes first between the end of the year or his next concussion. Because he will get another one if he continues to play.
Joe: Seahawks.
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys (+0.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. Who had 0-3 Ravens on their bingo card? I certainly didn't coming in, but I'll give Dallas a bounceback in Week 3. We just needed some lulz at their expense early.
Adam: Cowboys. I didn’t expect this to be a clash between two 1-1 teams. Maybe one of them yes, but not both. Also Jerra went on The FAN here in Dallas and basically said he was happy they lost because it just means they will be better in January... lol silly Jerra Superbowl’s are for winners.
Lucas note: So they'll score two garbage time touchdowns to come within just 10 as opposed to fighting back from 48-16 like last year?
Joe: Ravens.
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (+6.5)
Lucas: 49ers. Hey, Rams... I see you might need wideouts. You know who's available?
Adam: 49ers. Do the Rams even have any receivers left? Dang, two top 20ish guys out for the next few weeks. Tough.For some unknown reason, Augustana chose not to defend one of the top WR’s in the nation. 🤷♂️@lukelehnen to DeAngelo Hardy pic.twitter.com/1JvQs1HdnQ
— David Soliday (@NCCClassof88) November 12, 2023
Joe: 49ers.
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)
Lucas: Lions. Dan Campbell might (not so) secretly be insane, but I think they take care of business this week.
Adam: Lions. I think this is a solid bounce back game for Detroit. Maybe they can take Campbell's advice and bite the knees on the way up.
Joe: Lions.
Sunday Night
Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons (+3.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Because we cannot have nice things.
Adam: Chiefs. KC looked better this week- that would be Kirk Cousins, by the way- even leading the team to a win in primetime. But that falls apart here in this primetime game. KC to win- that would be Kansas City this time.
Joe: Falcons. FLY FALCONS FLY.
Monday Night
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
Lucas: Bills. Buffalo's off to a good start, and I don't see that changing this week.
Adam: Bills. The first of two on Monday! The Jags look like they are missing something, so I ride the home team and pray they cover. Side note: I love 2 Monday Night games; they really should expand this to every week, or at least more than just once or twice.
Lucas note: I'd agree with more than just once or twice. I think every week is asking too much. My priority would be to even out the Early/Late slates a little more. A ratio like this week is perfect.
Joe: Bills.
Washington Commanders @ Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
Lucas: Commanders. I'm not sure why the Bengals are favored by this much. Taking the points.
Adam: Bengals. Don’t say the NFL scheduling committee doesn’t know what they are doing. A Monday Night showdown between two former LSU QBs. The line make me kinda want to take Washington, but I just cannot do it. I’ll lay the 7.5 and hope Burrow and Chase find their groove.
Joe: Bengals.
Records So Far
Lucas: 17-15 (7-9 last week)
Adam: 18-14 (10-6 last week)
Joe: 15-17 (7-9 last week)
Geoffrey: 16-16 (5-11 last week)
Jim: 16-16 (5-11 last week)
John: 12-20 (5-11 last week)
Matthew: 16-16 (9-7 last week)
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