I'm actually kind of glad though, because as the coalition returns for the penultimate week of the 2021 campaign, I still have a little work to do.
We went podcast this past week, and while I took three of five from Adam, five of seven from Joe, and Adam took five of eight from Joe, Adam still maintains a five game lead in the group with 32 to play. You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here.
The lack of a Thursday night game means we got to push back the schedule a little bit compared to normal, so this went live on a Friday. Poor Adam noted with his picks that he was so looking forward to a crappy Thursday night game and now he's got nothing.
As we get set to make our picks for the final time in 2021, Adam and I disagree on six games. Joe unfortunately didn't get his picks in on Thursday night at editing time, but I'll add his in after the fact if they come in.
From all of us here at Confessions of a Sportscaster, have a safe and happy New Year! Let's get to the picks.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Atlanta Falcons @ Buffalo Bills (-14.5)
Lucas: Falcons. I feel to some degree like this line is an overreaction to what was, in fairness, a huge win for Buffalo. I don't want to call this a trap game, per se, but given the inconsistency we've seen from the Bills this year, I don't think it's unreasonable to take the points.
Adam: Falcons. Paused for a hot second on this line. As we have said time and time again, lines over 10 are always hard to pick due to the general parity in the league. The Bills have been meh all season, and Atlanta *CAN* play at time. So I’ll take the 14.5 on the road and hope the Mafia doesn’t have any snipers.
New York Giants @ Chicago Bears (-5.5)
Lucas: Bears. I interned for ESPN 1000 back in 2009, working a couple days a week, with my main job there cutting audio from Bears games. I grabbed TV highlights to play on the station the next day, and then would stay for like three and a half hours postgame to cut clips from Lovie Smith and Jay Cutler press conferences, and usually one of the last things I did before calling it a night was wait for a call from Bears beat reporter Jeff Dickerson to record his pieces that would air in SportsCenter breaks at the top and bottom of every hour. I don't think I ever met him personally, but we'd talk briefly after every game to get these set up. He was a good dude, taken from us too soon. Win it for JD, Bears.
Adam: Bears. Thanks to my frenemy Old Napoleon himself, Matt Nagy lived to see another day. Well played, Napoleon... well played. Unfortunately for the Bears, things only get easier...?
Lucas note: I'd say they're screwing up their tank, but the Giants have their first round pick in 2022, so...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Excuse me, I'm gonna go write "Don't bet against Patrick Mahomes" 100 times on Matthew's dry erase board in the basement.
Adam: Bengals. Tough choice here. KC's still fighting for the top seed and the bye in the AFC, and Cincy's fighting for the AFC North Championship. I like the Bengals here to cover in a dog fight, maybe a back door W.
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Lucas: Titans. The seven game win streak ends here. Tennessee got some momentum with their big win this past Thursday and now had a few extra days to rest and prep.
Adam: Titans. This line seems a bit short. I know Miami just beat up on New Orleans, but I don’t have faith in that team. They have some wicked stats about them that are on a whole new plane: first team that started 1-7 that may actually make the playoffs, something about worst all-purpose yards from scrimmage but happen to be 7-0 in their last 7... I could go on.
Lucas note: Miami is 30th in the league in yards per play; not sure if that's the stat you saw.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)
Lucas: Colts. Don't sleep on our lord and savior Carson Wentz (Go Bison).
Adam: Raiders. Another tough matchup where there are playoff implications all over the place; the Colts are on the right side of the wildcard race and the Raiders on the wrong side coming into this game. Sid the Kid comes to play and makes the race that much more interesting.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots (-15.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Purely taking the points here. Adam's rubbing off on me a little bit (inb4 lovefest for Sunshine).
Adam: Jaguars. Cupcake of a game for Pats... but then again, so was the Bills/Jags game for Buffalo. Seems like the Jags have some weird fetish/love for the AFC East. Both of their dubs are against that division. That said, I don’t think Jacksonville is even close, but within 2 scores? YES.
Lucas note: ...Huh.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Jets (+13.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Do you really think Touchdown Tom is going to let his old whipping boy get off lightly here?
Adam: Jets. *We interrupt this broadcast to being you breaking news: Ghosts seen all over the field at MetLife stadium. No tablets are safe. PROTECT THE WOMEN AND CHILDREN. OH THE HUMANITY!* In all seriousness, Tampa has locked up the division and has generally little hopes of a first round bye, so I see some resting/not 100% play this week.
Lucas note: I know the tiebreakers right now don't favor the Bucs (loss to the Rams, and Dallas has a conference win percentage lead), but they're only one game back of the top seed, and you think they're gonna pack it in?
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Football Team (+3.5)
Lucas: Eagles. The Team needs to stop bringing its bench along on the road. It's clearly not working.
Adam: Eagles. Much bigger game for Philly than The Team. Philly with a win plus some help locks up a wildcard spot. Also you could kinda see the give up in The Team last week against Dallas.
Lucas note: Edited Adam's part to clarify the playoff clinching scenario for the Eagles. He said with a win they all but lock up a wild card, but they do also need a Minnesota loss/tie, plus a loss/tie by either New Orleans or Houston. Or some convoluted scenarios that involve this game ending in a tie that I'm not going into.
Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens (+3.5)
Lucas: Rams. Doesn't matter if it's Lamar, Huntley, or Josh Johnson. LA rolls.
Adam: Rams. Not much here to say; Lamar may or may not play. Either way, I think the Rams cruise to victory.
Lucas note: You couldn't come up with a rhyme to end it on?
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)
Lucas: Broncos. Sorry Chargers, you've lost all benefit of the doubt.
Adam: Chargers. Surprisingly (to me anyway) the Chargers currently sit on the outside of the playoffs looking in. Denver too, but to a much lesser extent. I like the Chargers here as more of a coin flip; I say they cover.
Houston Texans @ San Francisco 49ers (-14.5)
Lucas: Texans. I'm still fairly high on the Niners, but we saw that the Texans can hang with better teams and even beat them on occasion. I'll take the points here.
Adam: Texans. I mean... last week...
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. Okay, I am digging into my hill that the Cowboys are going to flame out in the playoffs. I fully expect them to beat a banged up and slumping Cardinals team, but this group will blow a game in the playoffs. And if it comes at the hands of one Aaron Effing Rodgers, even better.
Adam: Cowboys. This one made me think. Had Arizona been playing like they had been at the start of the season... Cardinals all the way. And no, I am not overreacting to the Dallas blowout of The Team either. To make my final decision, I went with Dallas because they currently employ the person I hope becomes the new head coach for my Bears: one Kellen Moore.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
Lucas: Panthers. I mean, the odds are better if Ian Book has to go again, but I still think this is too favorable to the Saints. Even if they're starting *checks notes* Sam Darnold again?
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Lucas: Lions. Lol Seachickens.
Sunday Night
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
Lucas: Vikings. This is purely a points pick. Rodgers is playing at an MVP level, yes, but Green Bay's defense has been suspect the past few weeks (the four picks of Baker on Christmas notwithstanding), and after getting shredded by Nick Chubb and seeing that we likely have to deal with Dalvin Cook... I think Green Bay comes out super strong, but I'm expecting a backdoor cover.
Adam: Vikings. And I hate myself for doing it... Wait, what? Moreso because Green Bay should win in a rout at any other time of the season. But Minnesota is fighting for a playoff spot and the Packers only have to win one more game (presumably) this one or next week at Detroit to lock up the playoff bye. So, let’s just say they may play a little “soft”. Green Bay still wins, but Minnesota makes it close. Packers. With Cousins out, I'm switching to Green Bay.
Lucas note: Yeah, the Packers need a win plus a Dallas loss/tie and they clinch. Or a tie, plus a Cowboys loss and some other nonsense.
Monday Night
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)
Lucas: Steelers. You really think they're going to take that beatdown by the Chiefs lying down? In what's being billed as Big Ben's final game at Heinz Field? No chance.
Adam: Steelers. Does this game even matter? Yes, I know technically both of these teams could make it still (at least I think they can), but will either of them even come close? Even if Pittsburgh wins out, they would need Miami, the Chargers, the Raiders and Baltimore to only win one game and no team win out either.
Records So Far
Lucas: 131-109 (10-6 last week)
Adam: 136-104 (9-7 last week)
Joe: 119-121 (7-9 last week)
Geoffrey: 123-117 (10-6 last week)
Jim: 127-113 (11-5 last week)
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