Championship Weekend is all but upon us. That means ten games to determine ten conference champions, all of whom will get an automatic bid into the Death to the BCS Playoffs. For some, their playoff bid may be a formality, others may need to win that game to ensure they're already in. For still others, this is a game merely for seeding purposes. So many motivations all in play here.
There is one additional game being played this weekend: the makeup of Cal-USC that was postponed due to COVID a few weeks ago. Neither team is in the running for a playoff spot, but that game will have some ancillary effects on playoff contenders (possible additional playoff points).
I'll go into the full playoff criteria when I reveal the playoff field, but to give a general idea of what's going to happen with at large selection, I'm borrowing a process from Division III of the NCAA. They split the country into geographic regions, rank teams in each region, then for at large (what D-III calls "Pool C"), they take the top ranked team from each region that didn't earn an automatic bid and put them "at the table" for selection. They'll pick the best team based on criteria from that group, then the next team up from that region comes to the table. We'll do this for the Death to the BCS Playoffs, except by conference instead of region.
So with that in mind, let's look at the conference title games and what each conference's at large chances are.
ACC
Pittsburgh (10-2) vs Wake Forest (10-2)- 12/4 7:00pm CT
Winner receives the ACC automatic bid.
The loser of this game would be the first team at the table. Wake Forest has a good shot at getting in as an at-large. Pittsburgh's is a little bit weaker, but they would be a bubble team still. Clemson would likely be the next team to the table, especially if Wake Forest earns the automatic bid due to a win over a playoff team; the Tigers would likely be a bubble-out team, as would NC State if they end up with a slight advantage when all the information is in.
Big Ten
Michigan (11-1) vs Iowa (10-2)- 12/4 7:00pm CT
Winner receives the Big Ten automatic bid.
Table order depends on the result of this one. Michigan has the best at-large criteria and would be first at the table with an Iowa win. The Wolverines are all but a lock and would be a potential bid thief if Iowa wins. In the event of a Michigan win, Ohio State would be first to the table, and they're likely in even if Michigan ahead of them for at large consideration. Michigan State is a bubble-in team, especially if they're the third team up from the Big Ten. Iowa would be third up with a loss, and find themselves on the bubble, potentially on the wrong side of it.
Big 12
Baylor (10-2) vs Oklahoma State (11-1)- 12/4 11:00am CT
Oklahoma State receives the Big 12's automatic bid due to Baylor's permanent ban from the Death to the BCS Playoffs.
Admittedly, I was rooting for Oklahoma last week not because of double Bedlam, even though that would make this much easier. I don't like having a play-in game that means nothing because one of the participants is banned from postseason play, and this is actually the fourth time in the last five Death to the BCS Playoffs that we've had one such game meet these criteria. This is your reminder that Baylor should have received the death penalty for covering up sexual assault in its program a few years back. With that said, with Oklahoma State already safely in the field, Oklahoma would be the first team to the table from the conference; they're favored by the computers, but have a weaker Playoff Point resume and thus find themselves on the bubble.
Conference USA
Western Kentucky (8-4) @ UTSA (11-1)- 12/3 6:00pm CT
Winner receives the Conference USA automatic bid.
The loser of this game would be the first team at the table. UTSA would have been all but a lock with a win last week, but at 11-2 find themselves on the bubble. Western Kentucky would be a long shot, with UAB coming next to the table in either scenario, also as a long shot.
Independents
No Games
No automatic bid given.
11-1 Notre Dame will be the first team to the table, and they will likely be one of the first teams picked. BYU at 10-2 would be next, and they find themselves on the bubble. Army is next at 8-3 (the Navy game wouldn't really do much of anything for their resume or seeding) and is a long shot.
MAC
Kent State (7-5) vs Northern Illinois (8-4)- 12/4 11:00am CT
Winner receives the MAC automatic bid.
Central Michigan would likely be the first team to the table regardless of the result of this one; NIU has a head to head win, but Playoff Point numbers are fairly comparable and CMU has better computer rankings. Regardless, this is likely a one bid league.
Mountain West
Utah State (9-3) @ San Diego State (11-1)- 12/4 2:00pm CT
Winner receives the Mountain West automatic bid.
Utah State pretty much needs the automatic bid; they would likely be third up out of the Mountain West and a long shot to make the playoffs. San Diego State would be first at the table with a Utah State win, and are probably bubble-in. Fresno State would be up next (or would be first to the table with a San Diego State win) and they're likely bubble-out. Air Force would be up next, and they are a long shot as well.
Pac 12
Oregon (10-2) vs Utah (9-3)- 12/3 7:00pm CT
Winner receives the Pac 12 automatic bid.
The loser of this game would be the first team at the table. Oregon has a strong case, especially with a win over a likely at large in Ohio State. Utah would find itself as a bubble team. UCLA would be up next in either case, and would be a long shot.
SEC
Georgia (12-0) vs Alabama (11-1)- 12/4 3:00pm CT
Winner receives the SEC automatic bid.
The loser of this game would be the first team at the table. Ultimately, this game really only matters for seeding as Georgia would almost certainly be the first team off the board in the at large selection process. Alabama would likely be in within the first two or three selections. Ole Miss would be the next team to the table, and they have a strong case for a spot as well. Arkansas would probably be next up; they're a long shot.
Sun Belt
Appalachian State (10-2) @ Louisiana (11-1)- 12/4 2:30pm CT
Winner receives the Sun Belt automatic bid
The loser of this game would be the first team to the table. Both Appalachian State and Louisiana are likely bubble-out teams and would need a ton to go right to get an at large bid. Coastal Carolina would be next to the table; they are a long shot.
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