2021 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Official Bracket

And now for one of the most fun features I do on a yearly basis.

The FBS regular season is officially complete, the College Football Playoff has its bracket, which also means it's time to unveil this year's Death to the BCS Playoff bracket!

I spent some time Sunday afternoon finalizing metrics, then spent a bunch of time looking over data points to pick the at large teams, and then seed the field. I'm pretty sure I mentioned this in my season opener, but let's go over the primary criteria one more time.

• Record. This is a given. An undefeated team is getting in. A one loss team is all but a lock to get in. Two losses puts you in decent shape, but you need help. You get the idea.
• Playoff Points. This comes in three types.
• First Degree Playoff Points (PP1). A team receives one point for the number of wins of each opponent they defeat. For example, a two win team that beat a six win team and a one win team would have seven points.
• Second Degree Playoff Points (PP2). This is the average number of First Degree Playoff Points by each opponent they defeat. Back to that two win team example, the six win team had 20 PP1, and the one win team had zero, resulting in a PP2 for our example team of 10.00.
• Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP). The same as First Degree Playoff Points, except the number of losses by each opponent that defeated a team is subtracted from the score. As an example, an 11-1 team whose only loss was to an undefeated team would have an identical aPP to their PP1, but an 11-1 team whose lone loss came to a 6-6 team would have six points deducted from their PP1 to calculate their aPP.
• Computer rankings. Formulas created by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS) are synthesized into an average score, but are also looked at individually.
• Record versus Playoff Opponents. As opposed to "wins versus playoff opponents;" if you lose to a playoff team that's not necessarily a bad thing. Wins versus playoff teams, obviously, are a better thing, but an 0-1 record against playoff teams is arguably better than a 0-0 mark, all other things being equal. Obviously, this means head to head results come directly into play.
• IMPORTANT NOTE: This gets recalculated multiple times throughout the process. We start with just the automatic bid teams as being considered, then as each at large team is selected, the numbers get rerun.

Additionally, I do my best to avoid first round rematches unless seedings more or less force my hand (if, say, the 1-16 game would be a rematch but I feel like I can't avoid it without screwing over the #1 seed). Higher seeds host through the first three rounds, before the title game gets played at the Rose Bowl the same night as the national title game. I also want to note from the outset (and if you read the preview for this past week, you'd have seen this), but Baylor is banned from the Death to the BCS Playoffs because they should have gotten the death penalty for covering up sexual assault. Call it the Joe Paterno Rule, as Penn State got banned first.

I'm going to go over the rationale for everything after the jump. In the interest of drama... let's go to the podcast for the bracket reveal.

So with the bracket out, let's start with how we got here. First, we had the following teams receive automatic bids as conference champions (noting, again, that playoff records listed are only among automatic bid recipients):

• American Athletic: Cincinnati (13-0, 58 PP1, 18.67 PP2, 58 aPP, SAG 6, ROTH 4, AMSTS 2, 1-0 vs playoff teams)- 1st appearance
• ACC: Pittsburgh (11-2, 46 PP1, 19.20 PP2, 36 aPP, SAG 13, ROTH 12, AMSTS 11, 0-0 vs playoff teams)- 1st appearance
• Big Ten: Michigan (12-1, 64 PP1, 26.36 PP2, 62 aPP, SAG 4, ROTH 3, AMSTS 3, 1-0 vs playoff teams)- 4th appearance, 2nd consecutive
• Big 12: Oklahoma State* (11-2, 65 PP1, 28.73 PP2, 60 aPP, SAG 7, ROTH 7, AMSTS 7, 0-0 vs playoff teams)- 2nd appearance, 1st since 2015
• Oklahoma State got the automatic bid despite losing the Big 12 Championship game because Baylor is banned from the Death to the BCS Playoffs
• Conference USA: UTSA (12-1, 52 PP1, 17.36, 46 aPP, SAG 53, ROTH 42, AMSTS 18, 0-0 vs playoff teams- 1st appearance
• MAC: Northern Illinois (9-4, 39 PP1, 19.13 PP2, 21 aPP, SAG 92, ROTH 78, AMSTS 59, 0-1 vs playoff teams- 4th appearance, 1st since 2018
• Mountain West: Utah State (10-3, 37 PP1, 15.11 PP2, 24 aPP, SAG 58, ROTH 43, AMSTS 38, 0-0 vs playoff teams)- 2nd appearance, 1st since 2012
• Pac 12: Utah (10-3, 45 PP1, 17.13 PP2, 36 aPP, SAG 8, ROTH 16, AMSTS 16, 0-0 vs playoff teams)- 2nd appearance, 2nd consecutive
• SEC: Alabama (12-1, 62 PP1, 26.82 PP2, 58 aPP, SAG 1, ROTH 2, AMSTS 4, 0-0 vs playoff teams)- 8th appearance, 1st since 2018
• Sun Belt: Louisiana (12-1, 50 PP1, 17.82 PP2, 43 aPP, SAG 40, ROTH 40, AMSTS 17, 0-0 vs playoff teams)- 2nd appearance, 1st since 2013

So with that set, and records against playoff teams adjusted for everyone, we go to the at large selection. I'm borrowing the process from Division III (at least, as it should be since I'm seeding everyone properly at the beginning of the tournament) and using a system that's colloquially called bringing teams to "the table." In Division III, that means taking the top ranked team that didn't get an automatic bid from each of their geographic regions and comparing them against each other. Once a pick is made, the next team up from the region whose team got selected comes to the table, and you repeat the process until the field is filled. We're going to do this, except by taking each conference as the "region." And in this instance, we're considering the independent schools their own "conference." So below is each round of selection. First is the list of teams that were at the table, and who was selected along with their criteria.

1st Round: Houston, Wake Forest, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Western Kentucky, Notre Dame, Central Michigan, San Diego State, Oregon, Georgia, Appalachian State

Georgia (12-1, 70 PP1, 25.42 PP2, 70 aPP, SAG 2, ROTH 1, AMSTS 1, 0-1 vs playoff teams)- 5th apperance, 4th consecutive
This is a no-brainer. I even mentioned in the preview post for Championship Weekend that if Georgia lost, they'd likely be the first team off the board, and sure enough, with a look at the table, the Bulldogs are far and away the best team by all metrics. Ole Miss takes Georgia's place at the table.

2nd Round: Houston, Wake Forest, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Western Kentucky, Notre Dame, Central Michigan, San Diego State, Oregon, Ole Miss, Appalachian State

Notre Dame (11-1, 59 PP1, 25.27 PP2, 59 aPP, SAG 5, ROTH 6, AMSTS 6, 0-1 vs playoff teams)- 6th appearance, 4th consecutive
The Irish are the last one-loss team on the board, and really the only close resume that I see here would be from Ohio State, who has slightly better computer rankings, but Playoff Points favor Notre Dame, and the one in the loss column is enough to give the Irish the berth here. BYU takes Notre Dame's place at the table.

3rd Round: Houston, Wake Forest, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Western Kentucky, BYU, Central Michigan, San Diego State, Oregon, Ole Miss, Appalachian State

Ohio State (10-2, 57 PP1, 24.90 PP2, 53 aPP, SAG 3, ROTH 5, AMSTS 5, 0-1 vs playoff teams)- 7th appearance, 2nd consecutive
Can't keep the Buckeyes at the table any longer. They were all but a lock coming into the weekend; the question was just run order here. Computer rankings are the best at the table, as are Playoff Points. Michigan State takes Ohio State's place at the table.

4th Round: Houston, Wake Forest, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Western Kentucky, BYU, Central Michigan, San Diego State, Oregon, Ole Miss, Appalachian State

Michigan State (10-2, 53 PP1, 23.60 PP2, 47 aPP, 27 SAG, ROTH 10, AMSTS 9, 1-1 vs playoff teams)-3rd appearance, 1st since 2015
And the Spartans' wait at the table is a short one. I was torn ultimately between them and Ole Miss; Playoff Point numbers are roughly equal, and the Rebels have slightly better computer rankings thanks to Sagarin having MSU 27 (I assume because of the blowout loss to Ohio State), but the Spartans have arguably the best win over a playoff team this season other than maybe Bama over Georgia, and to me that's enough to give them the nod here. Iowa takes Michigan State's place at the table.

5th Round: Houston, Wake Forest, Iowa, Oklahoma, Western Kentucky, BYU, Central Michigan, San Diego State, Oregon, Ole Miss, Appalachian State

Ole Miss (10-2, 53 PP1, 25.00 PP2, 46 aPP, SAG 11, ROTH 9, AMSTS 12, 0-1 vs playoff teams)- 2nd appearance, 1st since 2014
The Rebels won't have to wait any longer. Other than maybe BYU, Ole Miss has the best Playoff Point numbers left and is highest ranked by the computers. Yeah, this means we get three SEC teams in, but Ole Miss was the best team left at the table in this round. Texas A&M takes Ole Miss' place at the table.

6th Round: Houston, Wake Forest, Iowa, Oklahoma, Western Kentucky, BYU, Central Michigan, San Diego State, Oregon, Texas A&M, Appalachian State

BYU (10-2, 51 PP1, 19.10 PP2, 44 aPP, SAG 30, ROTH 21, AMSTS 15, 2-0 vs playoff teams)- 
The last one is always the hardest. I was able to cut anyone with more than three losses right away, but that only got us down to eight teams from the table. BYU's Playoff Point numbers aren't as good as, say, San Diego State or Wake Forest, and the computer rankings are comparable to everyone at the table with the exception of Iowa. Ultimately, the number I couldn't ignore was the two losses (tied for fewest of teams at the table) and the 2-0 record against playoff teams (in a universe where Baylor didn't cover up sexual assault, it'd be 2-1). The Cougars are the last team in.
___________________________________________________________________________________

My first team out would probably be San Diego State (11-2, 53, 20.09, 50, 54, 32, 23, 1-1), followed maybe by Oklahoma (10-2, 43, 18.60, 39, 9, 11, 10, 0-1). Oregon also got some consideration here towards the end, though I couldn't justify a three loss team making it in.

As for seeding, there were some interesting arguments to be made at the top. Ultimately, my top four ended up the same as the College Football Playoff's top four, albeit in a different order. While the computers favor Alabama slightly, Playoff Points favor Michigan, and the Wolverines' 2-1 mark against playoff foes betters Alabama's 2-0 mark. Granted, the difference between 1 and 2 isn't huge, as both teams would be home until the title game, and those two conference champs had the best numbers. Georgia slots in then at #3, just ahead of Cincinnati, and while the 13-0 record is admirable, Georgia's numbers are just too gaudy to put the Bearcats ahead. But then I can't give Cincy only a single home game, so they slot in at #4.

We start to go down the list from there. Notre Dame has the best resume left on the board, so they slot in at #5, despite the second round rematch. Ohio State follows then at #6. We have the interesting question of where to slot a pseudo-champion in Oklahoma State, but they have no playoff opponents and Ohio State's computer numbers are better, so the Cowboys slot in at #7. Then rounding out our first round hosts is Michigan State, who got in just ahead of the #9 seed, and it makes sense to have that be a first round matchup in my eyes.

So the Rebels get the trip to East Lansing to open the tournament, then I round out the at larges at 10 with BYU. It's not necessarily unusual for the last six teams to all be conference champions, but it is weird that two Power Five champs are still on the board. We'll take one in Pittsburgh first, with just two losses to their name, but mediocre Playoff Point numbers that are counteracted by a strong showing in the computer rankings. The other Power Five will have to wait, because I still have to slot in a couple one-loss conference champions that have better resumes. The computers are higher on Louisiana than they are on UTSA, but the Roadrunners have better Playoff Point numbers, so UTSA slots in at 12 and Louisiana at 13. Utah finally gets on the board at 14, just ahead of their in-state rival in Utah State, and Northern Illinois, as the lone four loss team in the field, unfortunately has to have a rematch with Michigan in the first round.

I'm hoping that WhatIfSports will have these teams up in a couple weeks so that I can simulate more or less in real time. Looking forward to getting another Death to the BCS Playoffs in the books!