Adam has long had this theory of "The Great Reversal," where everything we think we know about an NFL season flips on its head. That informed a lot of his picks this past week, and to an extent it worked; he took six of our eight disputed games. Joe, meanwhile, finally caught fire as he swept our six disputed games and grabbed four of six from Adam.
Adam remains in the lead overall, but with my down week, he now holds a sizable five game lead on the nearest competitor. The rest of us are all hovering in that 5-7 game range. This is fine; everything is fine.
You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. As a general rule, those of us who have been picking more contrary to everyone else seems to be having more success, and Adam's numbers bear that out, as he's 5-0 in games where he's either gone hero or had one other person agree.
And so as I make an attempt to claw my way back in our first week with byes, Joe and I disagree on only two games, but Adam disagrees with each of us on six out of 14. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Atlanta's been pretty good to start the year, but I think Tampa's been just a bit better. And apparently (at least according to the Strouds), the cookies Baker's baked have been pretty good.
Adam: Falcons. Tough game and tough line. And as I said before, this is just the latest in many examples solid Thursday night games this year. Maybe the one week I predict Bijan to go off, he will go off... not sure its this week, but I like the home team on a short week.
Joe: Buccaneers.
Sunday Morning
New York Jets vs Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
Lucas: Vikings. I don't like this universe where Sam Darnold is resurging. Then again, we get a Revenge Game in London, where hopefully there will be no ghosts... you know, as long as we keep him away from the Tower of London or Westminster Abbey.
Adam: Jets. London!!!!!!! Who’s ready for some Sunday Morning Football! With Rodgers familiar with the NFC North for obvious reasons, I think the trip across the pond will help settle him and he rolls.
Joe: Vikings.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Lucas: Bears. So far, Caleb and Co. are 2-0 at Soldier Field. And while this could potentially be an Andy Dalton Revenge Game, I think it's more likely we see a "The Bears won The Trade, and it's not close" game. Also, I'm pretty sure Tory Taylor has taken up the Champion Punter of the Universe mantle.
Adam: Bears. Kinda wish Young was playing in this game as I think that would be a good story line, but I get it. The Panthers have played better, but so has Williams, and in a softer spot than the first couple of weeks I like the cover, even if it is backdoor and by the defense/special teams.
Joe: Bears.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5)
Lucas: Ravens. Boy, that 0-2 start seems like forever ago. Helps when you have a Euphoric Violet Gazelle doing Euphoric Violet Gazelle things.
Adam: Ravens. Considering all things from the year so far, I am surprised this line is so tight. Certainly a one score game, but not less than a field goal.DERRICK HENRY TO THE HOUSE!!!!!!!!!!
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 30, 2024
Tune in on NBC! pic.twitter.com/rRDLQvKh8P
Joe: Ravens.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-1.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Roll out the tanks!
Adam: Dolphins. Miami should be able to salvage a win this week, but they are starting to get close to needing to throw in the towel for this year and start planning for next year.
Joe: Patriots.
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders (-3.5)
Lucas: Commanders.
It truly does smell like bitch
byu/No_Departure102 inNFCEastMemeWar
Adam: Commanders. I don’t know what to make of this game. I think the Browns are a better team than their record shows, and I think Washington is currently outplaying their skills, so I wish this line was a little closer to -1.5ish range, but I’ll still roll the dice and take the home team and hope that extra half point doesn’t screw me like it did last week in the KC game.
Lucas note: Through four weeks we've had nine games decided by half a point on ESPN. I'm 3-6 in those games. Adam is 5-4, Joe is 6-3. Excuse me while I grab something.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
Lucas: Colts. I'm assuming a lot of this has to do with it being a divisional game, and on the road, and what have you... but how exactly are the Jags favored here? Indy straight up.
Adam: Jaguars. Sunshine and the Jags seemed to have found themselves last week in a tight game against Houston. Indy is on the downturn with Richardson hurting his shoulder last week and he may be less than 100%.
Joe: Colts.
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans (-1.5)
Lucas: Bills. This has the makings of a Revenge Game, both for the Bills after the debacle in Baltimore, and for the Scriptwriter.
Adam: Bills. Dare I call this a ‘come back’ game for Buffalo after getting embarrassed on Sunday night?
Joe: Bills.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Lucas: Broncos. I think I've been so against Denver early on because of Bo Nix. I mean, that part's justified, but...
I was busy watching the Vikings almost blow a 28 point lead. The Jets lost to the goddamn Broncos??
byu/Mission_Wind_7470 inUrinatingTree
Adam: Broncos. Another game I just don’t feel like I have a good grasp of. I can see this going either way for a number of reasons, so I’ll keep my theme from prior picks and just roll with the home team.
Joe: Broncos.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. Partially because this is a step up in weight class from last week for San Francisco. Also partially because I'm due for another solidarity pick. Happy Bell Week, y'all. #BeatWheaton
Adam: Cardinals. Not gonna let this 7.5 line get me again like it did last week with KC’s win over the Chargers by 7, when the line was 7.5.
Joe: 49ers.
Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams (+3.5)
Lucas: Packers. Of course the day Jordan Love wears a Brett Favre jersey to a game he has a Favreian line (389 years, four touchdowns, three picks, including some godawful ones). But the Rams are way more banged up and will probably have some trouble in this one.
Adam: Packers. Gritty game last week with a clearly less than 100% Love. I like the line even on the road, I’ll take Green Bay by a touchdown.
Joe: Packers.
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. Seattle's quietly been one of the top teams in the league. Getting the Giants means a likely 4-1 start.
Adam: Seahawks. With Nabers being questionable and even if he is a go, I still like Seattle coming off a tough and high scoring game against the Lions on Monday Night. Much higher of a line, I might have called this a game I may flip-flop late since I think Nabers playing is worth a couple points on the line. But at less than a touchdown, I’ll keep it Seattle regardless of Nabers' status.
Lucas note: Obviously if that changes, Adam has the right to make that audible. We haven't had really any of those in a long time.
Joe: Seahawks.
Sunday Night
Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. This was my hardest one so far. After going Steeler-heavy to start, I feel like I need to honor the Great Reversal and expect Dallas to come away with one and try to get back into things before the inevitable collapse.
Adam: Steelers. CowGirls Heiferladies Ahhhh this game will decide what they become. Steelers at home laying less than three, I’ll roll with the home team... seems like a theme this week.
Joe: Cowboys.
Monday Night
New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Throw Flag.
Adam: Saints. KC has been playing some games way tighter than I think has been needed and with the loss of Rice, I think that gets even tighter. Call this my easy cover of the week with a 50/50 for a Saints outright win.
Lucas note: Almost makes me wonder if we should start a tradition of us each picking a lock for bonus points. Probably not this season since we're four weeks in the books already. But maybe for 2025.
Joe: Saints.
Records So Far
Lucas: 30-34 (5-11 last week)
Adam: 36-28 (9-7 last week)
Joe: 31-33 (11-5 last week)
Geoffrey: 31-33 (7-9 last week)
Jim: 29-35 (8-8 last week)
John: 30-34 (7-9 last week)
Matthew: 30-34 (7-9 last week)
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