The good news is that Adam and I split our six disputed games and I swept the two with Joe, while Adam took four of six from Joe. The bad news for me is that Adam maintains his fairly sizable lead over the rest of the group. The rest of us are all clustered together, with Matthew currently alone in second place after an outstanding week.
You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. Adam maintains his dominance in games where he's heavily in the minority. Of note, we went 3-0 in consensus games this past week, putting us well over .500 in that category for the season. Hopefully we can maintain that, as it's good for all of us.
Looking ahead, Adam and I disagree on seven games out of 14, Joe and I on five, and Joe and Adam on eight. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (+3.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. San Francisco is looking very much mortal. Short week, on the road against a divisional opponent where I'm getting a field goal? Yes please.
Adam: Seahawks. I like the line; seems spot on. Let’s see if JSN can execute another pass fake to allow Geno to get another first down. It is a deke of all dekes.
Joe: 49ers.
Sunday Morning
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Lucas: Bears. So if it's Trevorbank in Duval, what the heck do we call it in London? Also look, I've been somewhat vocal in my skepticism about Caleb Williams, but he's making strides as the season goes along. I think that continues as he gets another opponent that he should be able to have some success against. I'm still interested to see what happens when he faces a higher caliber defense, though.
Adam: Jaguars. Looks like I am going contrarian a little based on the ESPN pick percentage as of submission time, but London is Jacksonville’s second home. And while this is a ‘home’ game for the Bears, its not really a home game. Sunshine has found his groove tossing for over 350 last week. Hope I am wrong here, but I’ll take virtual home team.
Lucas note: Yeah, Lawrence threw for 371 and averaged 10.9 yards per pass attempt against the Colts. Taking his 85 yard touchdown out as an outlier, he still averaged 8.7. I'm going to give this game an asterisk in the sense that Indy is 30th in the league in net yards per pass attempt allowed, but maybe Adam is right that this is a good sign for Sunshine.
Joe: Bears.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Lucas: Packers. Arizona is feisty, and Jordan Love has made some questionable decisions at times the past couple weeks. But this Green Bay team can run, and Xavier McKinney is currently getting ALL of the takeaways. I'll lay the points.
Adam: Cardinals. Gritty wins for both teams last week. I just like the connection between Murray and Harrison Jr than Love and... Doubs? Is he back from his detrimental actions to the team? No matter, MHJ for 150 and 2.
Lucas note: Matt LaFleur said on Monday that he had a "productive" meeting with Doubs, and he practiced on Wednesday. Also, excuse me while I rewatch Jordan Love drop an absolute dime to Naperville's own WR1.
Joe: Cardinals.Jordan Love. Jayden Reed. How?!? pic.twitter.com/lAiQF2UdTD
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 6, 2024
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (+0.5)
Lucas: Colts. Joe Flacco is elite. That is all.
Adam: Colts. FLACCOOOOOOOOOO! In a game that has four different QB combinations at this point, there is only one that I would even consider taking Tennessee: that is Levis versus Falcco and even then, no, just no.
Joe: Colts.
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (+6.5)
Lucas: Texans.
Adam: Patriots. Going contrarian, but only due to Maye starting this week. I’ll give the rookie a shot with a line that seems inflated considering the loss of Collins for Houston and New England generally playing better than expected this whole season.It's happening... https://t.co/eVHVV1Ro6z pic.twitter.com/acAlsHNrtN
— Tom Grossi (@tomgrossicomedy) October 8, 2024
Joe: Texans.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (+2.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers.
Adam: Buccaneers. With or without Carr, New Orleans has been fading of late. Coming off a heartbreaking L to Kirk Cousins and the Falcons in overtime, I think Baker mixes things up, rises to the occasion and bakes up a win... see what I did there? BREAD.
Lucas note: Cookies, actually. Stay with the times.
Joe: Buccaneers.
Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)
Lucas: Browns. I find it interesting that the Nick Sirianni's Eagles are struggling in the wake of Mount Union having its worst game grade in God knows how long, winning 21-0 against a winless Otterbein team this past Saturday but looking very un-Mount Union like in doing so. Roll the GIF!
Joe: Eagles.
Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Lucas: Commanders. I'm sorry, why are the Ravens touchdown favorites here? Give me Wildflower!
Joe: Ravens.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (+2.5)
Lucas: Broncos. I mean, they're probably not wearing the throwbacks again, which is a shame, but they'll look good regardless.
Adam: Chargers. Coming off the bye, I just don’t see how I cannot take the Chargers at -2.5.
Joe: Broncos.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5)
Lucas: Steelers. No dice on the High End Talent(TM) last time around. Probably here though.
Adam: Steelers. Keep on rolling with Fields, the Bears need to get that 6th converted to a 4th. Interesting question: if Russell had been healthy to start the season, would Pittsburgh be 3-2? And would Fields have been subbed in already? We may never know. Fields should stay in until he shows otherwise.
Lucas note: I don't know, but the one thing I do know is that a 9-8 Steeler season is inevitable.
Joe: Steelers.
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys (+3.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. If anyone was going to become the first QB in NFL history to throw interceptions on two different days in the same game, of course it would be Dak. But in this all important rematch from 2023, the referee for this game is *checks notes* John Hussey. I mean, at least it's not Brad Allen, but home teams are 99-52 in games he's officiated since he became a referee in 2015 (and if you take out his first season, they're 94-42). Do with that information what you will.
Adam: Lions. You know times have changed when the Lions are favored over the Cowboys in Dallas. Unfortunately, Dallas did enough last week to keep their name for now... but only just. You have been warned.
Joe: Cowboys.
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (+6.5)
Lucas: Falcons. I mean, it's not Prime Time Kirk Cousins, who apparently has morphed into a demigod, but it probably won't matter against Carolina.
Adam: Falcons. 500+ yards. Wow. Also serious question: do you think the Panthers ever go back to Young this year, or is it over over? I think they may later in the season unless they get a trade offer they cannot refuse.
Lucas note: It's done, he's cooked. No one will give up what Carolina would deem fair compensation for him, and unless Dalton gets hurt he's probably just in for mop up duty in blowouts.
Joe: Panthers.
Sunday Night
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants (+3.5)
Lucas: Giants. Cincy seems snakebitten, and the Giants have been playing better. Since I'm getting a field goal, I'll take the risk.
Adam: Bengals. I would be interested to see a stat for the number of times a team has had 2 receivers combined for 19 catches, 275 yards and 4 touchdowns and still lose the game. I bet it's on one hand. This game isn’t close from the start. Cincy by a mile.
Joe: Giants.
Monday Night
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (+2.5)
Lucas: Jets. While I imagine Buffalo should be able to bounce back after... whatever the hell has happened to them the last couple weeks, I'm gonna put my metaphorical money on the Jets getting an early boost from firing Robert Saleh. And maybe a Davante trade to reunite Rodgers with his cheat code weapon?
Adam: Jets. Just because A A Ron is now the Jets coach. Seriously though, look at the new interim coach. Tell me he doesn’t look like Rodgers. OK, maybe not at much as it could be, but you better believe Aaron is calling shots now. Just need the final piece to the puzzle in Adams and he is all set.
Joe: Jets.
Records So Far
Lucas: 39-39 (9-5 last week)
Adam: 45-33 (9-5 last week)
Joe: 38-40 (7-7 last week)
Geoffrey: 38-40 (7-7 last week)
Jim: 38-40 (9-5 last week)
John: 38-40 (8-6 last week)
Matthew: 40-38 (10-4 last week)
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