We ended up regressing to the mean a little bit in Week 3; after hitting on eight of our first ten consensus picks, we went just 2-3 on those games last week. You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here.
On a micro level, I took three of five disputed games from Adam last week to narrow the deficit to a single game in the standings. We're also starting to see a little bit of a split between the top and the bottom of the standings. Whether this is a part of what Adam has deemed The Great Reversal or not remains to be seen.
Once again this week Adam and I disagree on five games out of 15. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets (+2.5)
Lucas: Broncos. Well, if you're gonna give a guy his first NFL start in Brett Rypien... might as well let him go up against a dumpster fire.
Adam: Jets. Phew, a barn burner between two 0-3 teams to start Week 4. The Jets haven’t really done much of anything other than lay on the ground pretending to be injured in hopes that teams would take it easy on them. Denver has done a little better, but has suffered some injuries. I’ll give the nod to the Jets.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears (+2.5)
Lucas: Colts. Yeah, Nick Foles has taken over and I'm saddened by the end of the Trubisky Era, since Foles will give the Bears more of a chance. But even so, Navy is sus.
I think we can all guess with it is... (comical_sports_memes)
Posted by NFL Memes on Tuesday, September 29, 2020
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Joe Burrow is gonna die by season's end. Protect that man.
Adam: Jaguars. I am always surprised that two NFL teams can get an extra 10 minutes to play and neither team can score even a field goal to win the game. Anyway, with the way the Jags have been playing, I’ll take the points, thank you very much.
Lucas note: I mean... I think we've had at least one time pretty much every year in recent memory, or close to it. And "NFL team" might be generous for the Bungles and Iggles...
Cleveland Browns @ Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. I want to go with the meme here for obvious reasons, but they need the black cat from last year for old time's sake, and I'm not sure I trust the Browns against them. Also, only losing by seven in Seattle isn't a terrible thing and I'm not gonna bash them for it.
Adam: Browns. If I told you that your quarterback would throw for 472 yards and three touchdowns, I bet you would be ecstatic. Now if I told you he threw for 450+ yards in back to back games, you would be losing your gourd. But what if I told you they are 1-1 in those games and really should be 0-2, save for a watermelon kick? That’s because the Cowladies cannot finish a drive.
Lucas note: To be fair to the Cowladies... they've recorded touchdowns on eight of their 11 red zone opportunities, tied for the seventh-best mark in the league. This puts them ahead of juggernauts like the Chiefs and Packers. Now, if you go by percentage of drives ending with a score, they're in the middle of the pack at 43.2% (15th), not far behind the Seahawks (13th) and Green Bay, by the way, is first by a landslide.
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions (+4.5)
Lucas: Saints. Getting Detroit should be a nice cure for dropping two straight.
Adam: Saints. I was a little surprised at this line being only 4.5, but it is a home game for the Lions, and they haven’t been terrible. Even with this, I just cannot trust much of anything that comes out of Detroit... oh, and Kamara is a freaking beast.
Lucas note:
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans (PPD)
Lucas note: As of posting time, this game was being postponed, but they were hoping for a Monday or Tuesday kickoff. After this post went live, the league announced this game will be postponed to later in the season. Removing my and Adam's picks from the list even though the game, as of right now, is still up on Pigskin Pick 'Em.
Titans-Steelers game this week is being rescheduled for later this season, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 1, 2020
There were two more positive tests in Tennessee -- one player, one personnel.
Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins (+6.5)
Lucas note: You know what, let's let Adam go first here.
Adam: Seattle. I just don’t see anyway that the Fins keep up with the Seahawks. Lucas will likely be spewing the laurels of a west coast teams playing on the east coast at noon as his reason he is going with the Fitzmagic. I get it, but I just don’t see it; Wilson is just too good. Now teach Metcalf to tuck the ball all the way to the endzone.
Lucas: Seahawks. Do you think that little of me? I'm gonna keep riding Seattle as long as Russell Wilson keeps destroying fools through the air... which means I'll keep riding them for a while.
Minnesota Vikings @ Houston Texans (-3.5)
Lucas: Texans. Similar rationale as the now postponed Steelers-Titans game. Houston will be in-building, Minnesota won't, and the Vikings aren't good to begin with. Let's get Bill O'Brien a win.
Adam: Texans. At first I had to do a double take as both of these teams are 0-3. Once I investigated further, I realized both have faced generally superior foes, with the Texans facing both the Ravens and Chiefs in the first two weeks. I’m picking this purely on the better quarterback play. Edge to the Texans.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers (+3.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. I'm gonna chalk last week up to some inconsistency from a young Arizona team and ride them again this week.
Adam: Cardinals. With McCaffery out, I don’t see how the Cards don’t obliterate the Panthers.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. I tried to lay a bunch with LA last week and it burned me. I refuse to count out Touchdown Tom or get burned by them again.
Adam: Buccaneers. Looks like the former Duck is taking over in LA, and looks serviceable doing it, but that’s not enough for me. Now that the GOAT has his tight end revving up and the running back situation down to a two headed monster of Jones and Fournette, I don’t see how Tampa doesn’t win going away.
Baltimore Ravens @ Washington Football Team (+13.5)
Lucas: Washington. I shouldn't keep picking Washington, but this line scares me a little bit. I think the Ravens win, and handily, but I could see Washington pulling off a backdoor cover.
Adam: Ravens. Ahh, the dreaded double digit point games. I was 1-1 prior to last week, got a win last week, so now over .500 and trying for one more. Joe texted Lucas and I saying this was a tough line. For me, this is pretty easy. Yes, the Ravens lost to Kansas City with Jackson playing poorly. Yes, Washington is *checks notes*... *checks notes again* tops in the NFC East (sorry, had to read that twice to be sure it was true), but the Ravens are out for blood after the Monday Night loss.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams (-12.5)
Lucas: Rams. This one I'm not mincing words on. The Giants are terrible, and this line is totally fair. It's risky, but I don't trust the team around Daniel Jones.
Adam: Rams. This is a second game that Joe said was a really tough line. I told him, usually when there are tough lines, it typically means the odds makers got it right. And I would agree here: I think they did get the line right. But like the game above, its an easy call for me on this one: the Rams are the far superior team who lost on a iffy PI call (like I haven’t said that about a million times before). I say it was a clean play but cannot argue too hard against. Regardless, a chip on that shoulder has the Rams celebrating and will add a second double digit spread to my record.
Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5)
Lucas: Bills. Yeah, they got kinda lucky, but the Bills avoided the 28-3 curse. They'll keep it rolling with a rising Josh Allen.
Adam: Raiders. This should be a good game, probably the overall best of the weekend, and a possible preview of a second weekend AFC playoff matchup. I get the spread of +2.5 to the Raiders, but I’ll bank on the home team here taking the points.
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Beware the Mahomes.
Adam: Chiefs. Patty Mahomes is going to be a daddy. Who’s daddy? Your daddy. Haha, sorry, bad joke, but seriously. Mahomes will romp at home.
Sunday Night
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Why is this the Sunday Night game? I know this was scheduled before the Niners lost basically everybody to injury, but still. I'll take the points here because the Niners aren't playing the Jets this time.
Adam: Eagles. Do I have to pick? Broken 49ers who cannot find gold or crappy Eagles who cannot fly? I mean seriously, the Niners have lost like half their team to injuries, and the Eagles cannot even close out a game against the Bengals. Oh well, I’ll play reverse in my head. My head says to take the 49ers, so that’s why I’ll take the Eagles.
Monday Night
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
Lucas: Packers. I'm a little hesitant to lay this many since the Falcons can put up points and Green Bay's defense isn't great, but if Atlanta's gonna collapse again, it'll be Green Bay putting up a crapton of points again. I'm in.
Adam: Packers. On paper, before the season started, this would have been a fine Monday night game. But with the Falcons not knowing who they are any more, and the Packers playing very well, better than many thought, how can I pick anything but the Packers here at home?
Records So Far
Lucas: 29-19 (9-7 last week)
Adam: 30-18 (8-8 last week)
Joe: 25-23 (7-9 last week)
Geoffrey: 30-18 (9-7 last week)
Jim: 25-23 (6-10 last week)
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