Thursday, August 8, 2019

2019 MLB Tournament of Champions: Postseason Introduction

Every team has played 90 games, and with that, it's time to cut the field in half.

I had minimal shenanigans in terms of imbalance among groups. 48 wins guaranteed advancement, and there's only one flagrant lack of advancing issue that I'm not thrilled about. The 2015 Kansas City Royals went 47-43, but eight other teams in that group had 48 or more; elsewhere I only had one sub-.500 team advance in the 1960 Pittsburgh Pirates. Elsewhere some .500 teams made it, while others didn't depending on how everything lined up. Even so, the records ended up distributing how they would in a normal baseball season. All but one team reached at least 30 wins, while just three teams hit the 60-win plateau; 61 of the 128 teams had between 40 and 49 wins.

So with those thoughts in mind, here's the bracket going into the postseason. The first three rounds will be played entirely in groups. All rounds will be best of 5 with the higher regular season finish getting home field advantage in a 2-2-1 format. For the quarterfinals onward, it will become best of seven in a 2-3-2 format, with home field advantage going first to the higher seed (based on group finish), with overall record, then run differential breaking ties.

Let's take a look at who advanced based on decade, franchise, and other criteria.


DECADES

  • 1900's: 4
  • 1910's: 3
  • 1920's: 6
  • 1930's: 6
  • 1940's: 7
  • 1950's: 5
  • 1960's: 4
  • 1970's: 5
  • 1980's: 4
  • 1990's: 5
  • 2000's: 8
  • 2010's: 7
I'm a little surprised that, by decade, there was as much representation for the old guard as there was. I had half expected this to turn into the NBA Tournament of Champions where all the ancient teams would get run off the field, but many thrived. The 1904 New York Giants, after overcoming a 4-0 series deficit to the 1904 Boston Americans in the simulation of that year's World Series that never happened, ralled to win five straight to make the tournament, then won 56 more games to take the Group A crown. Four of the eight group winners were teams from before Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier; heck, the most recent group winner was the 1998 New York Yankees.

ACTUAL SEASON RESULTS
  • Won World Series: 57
  • Lost World Series: 3
  • Lost LCS: 2
  • Lost LDS: 2
For reference, 14 of the 128 teams in the tournament didn't win the World Series, so half of that group advanced. Of those, three of the five pennant winners advanced. The LCS number includes the 1994 Montreal Expos, who in the simulation of the 1994 playoffs got swept by the eventual champion Atlanta Braves (who themselves didn't advance).

FRANCHISE REPRESENTATIVES
  • Arizona Diamondbacks: 1
  • Boston/Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves: 2
  • Boston Americans/Red Sox: 5
  • Brooklyn/Los Angeles Dodgers: 2
  • Chicago Cubs: 3
  • Cincinnati Reds: 5
  • Cleveland Indians: 2
  • Colorado Rockies: 1
  • Detroit Tigers: 2
  • Florida/Miami Marlins: 1
  • Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals: 3
  • New York/San Francisco Giants: 4
  • New York Yankees: 16
  • Philadelphia/Oakland Athletics: 3
  • Philadelphia Phillies: 1
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: 4
  • Seattle Mariners: 1
  • St. Louis Browns/Baltimore Orioles: 2
  • St. Louis Cardinals: 3
  • Texas Rangers: 1
  • Washington Senators/Minnesota Twins: 1
You knew there was going to some attrition among teams like the Yankees and Cardinals, given their 38 World Series championships between them. The Yankees lost more teams, but got a majority of their champions into the next round, making up a quarter of the field. The Cardinals, meanwhile, lost eight of their 11 champions, but two of their three led groups. Note that I'm counting all iterations of a franchise in this list; the Athletics, Dodgers, and Giants had representatives from both listed markets make the postseason, as did the Expos/Nationals, but only the Washington Senators got in (neither Twins champ), Milwaukee and Atlanta both got Braves reps in (Boston did not), and while the current Baltimore Orioles were once the St. Louis Browns, the lone Browns rep did not advance while two Orioles iterations did. In terms of percentage, the Reds had the best group stage, with all five of their World Champs advancing, as did the Cubs with all three of theirs. Arguably most impressive, though the Montreal Expo/Washington National franchise. I gave a berth apiece to an Expo and National rep, and the Nationals got an extra wild card as well; all three of these teams made the postseason.

2017 POSTSEASON ADVANCERS ALSO IN THE 2019 POSTSEASON
  • 2016 Chicago Cubs
  • 2011 Texas Rangers
  • 1995 Atlanta Braves
  • 1995 Cleveland Indians
  • 2001 Seattle Mariners
  • 2004 Boston Red Sox
  • 2007 Colorado Rockies
  • 1970 Baltimore Orioles
  • 1975 Cincinnati Reds
That's nine of the 10 postseason teams from two years ago, by the way. The only one that didn't make it was the 1998 San Diego Padres, who got bounced in the Wild Card round. Every team that made the LDS advanced to this year's postseason, which lends credence to how the 2017 tournament was handled. We'll see if some of the elite teams from two years ago make another deep run.

No comments:

Post a Comment