Earlier today I kicked off my series of MLB preview posts with a look at the NL West. Like last year, especially with the regular season starting on a Thursday, I need to get this series expedited, so I'm covering two divisions a day. This means for the afternoon portion, we're going to take a look at the AL West.
AL West
Interleague pairing: NL Central
2018: 103-59 (1st in AL West), 1 win above COAS prediction; lost ALCS
I see no reason to count these guys out of the top of the division once again. Yeah, Dallas Keuchel is gone, but Justin Verlander and Gerritt Cole pack a hell of a 1-2 punch atop the rotation, and the back end of the bullpen is solid. I think really the only thing I'm not a fan of is that their fourth outfielder projects to be their Opening Day DH, and while Tyler White had a decent 2018 in a small sample size... that's just it: it's a small sample size. Yet if that's all I'm nitpicking about, that's a good sign.
2019 Prediction: 94-68
2018: 97-65 (2nd in AL West), 33 wins above COAS prediction; lost AL Wild Card Game
Whoops. I still don't understand how this team is that good other than Khris Davis hit a ton of home runs. They did add some pitching this year with a full year of Mike Fiers, as well as Marco Estrada, but I'm not sold on this group. That doesn't change the fact that I'm a coward and am penciling them back in for a Wild Card berth, because Oakland baseball makes no sense.
2019 Prediction: 88-74, Wild Card
2018: 89-73 (3rd in AL West), 9 wins above COAS prediction; missed playoffs
With Kyle Seager unavailable in Japan but likely okay to go for most of the rest of the year, there's a little bit of a hiccup for the M's to open this year. Felix Hernandez is on the downswing of his career, and the rest of the rotation is still something of a question mark to me. They also lost Nelson Cruz to free agency, which will hurt. Their bullpen has a decent back end with Hunter Strickland as long as he's done being a thug. Seattle will contend, but not quite be good enough.
2019 Prediction: 83-79
2018: 80-82 (4th in AL West), 8 wins below COAS prediction; missed playoffs
The Angels made the big splash of the offseason by locking up Mike Trout for a metric crapton of money (say what you will about athlete salaries, but in free market terms, $430 million for the best player in the game is a bargain, weird as that is to say). The issue is that I'm not sold on the supporting cast. Shohei Ohtani still can't pitch due to Tommy John surgery, Albert Pujols is old, and much of the rest of the roster is okay... but not great. The Angels will continue to do what they do... linger in the middle of the pack.
2019 Prediction: 79-83
2018: 67-95 (5th in AL West), 1 win below COAS prediction; missed playoffs
This team is not going to be good. With Adrian Beltre retiring and starting the clock on his induction to the Hall of Fame, the stud guy on the roster is probably Elvis Andrus, and that's not a good sign. There are some decent young guys like Joey Gallo, Delino DeShields, and Rougned Odor, but nobody really strikes fear into your heart. And the rotation? Forget it.
2019 Prediction: 66-96
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