As in prior years, I'm going across the country and alternating leagues, ending with the defending champion's division. That means tomorrow afternoon is when I'll have a gander at the AL East. But for now, let's visit the middle of the country and look at the NL Central.
NL Central
Interleague Pairing: AL West
2018: 95-68 (2nd in NL Central), 1 win above COAS prediction; Lost NL Wild Card Game
The Cubs' offense sputtered and died as the season went on last year, as the team scored one run apiece in both Game 163 and the Wild Card Game at Wrigley Field, but I think it's wrong to consider this the demise of the Cubs. They had a ton of injuries last year and still made the playoffs. With Kris Bryant healthy and aided by the likes of Javy Baez and Anthony Rizzo, I'm willing to consider last year an aberration. The rotation should be good, especially if Yu Darvish is healthy; the only real question is the bullpen and if Brandon Morrow can last the year. Even with injuries though, I think this is the best team in arguably the best division in baseball.
2019 Prediction: 92-70
2018: 96-67 (1st in NL Central), 8 wins above COAS prediction; Lost NLCS
I wouldn't be shocked if this flips come season's end. The Brewers have the reigning NL MVP in Christian Yelich, who had fire coming out of his rectum down the stretch last season, to anchor one of the best outfields in the game. The infield is good as well, though it'll be interesting to see how Mike Moustakas handles a full season at second base. They also added Yasmani Grandal to be their main catcher, which is a solid get. Their pitching staff is pretty good too, especially the back end of that bullpen, though we'll see how good a year Josh Hader has after last year's dominant campaign. Milwaukee for sure makes the playoffs, but I've got them behind the Cubs ever so slightly.
2019 Prediction: 91-71, Wild Card
2018: 88-74 (3rd in NL Central), 2 wins above COAS prediction; missed playoffs
The Cardinals are an interesting team. They went out and traded for Paul Goldschmidt in the offseason and extended him, so they have an All Star first baseman for the foreseeable future to go with a young core. Guys like Harrison Bader and Tyler O'Neill are the latest in a line of prospects to come up and contribute for St. Louis, and their pitching staff isn't bad. The question is whether their rotation can stay healthy and contribute at a high level, as well as if Jordan Hicks can assume the mantle of closer without many hiccups. Oh, and let's not forget the ageless Yadier Molina, who supposedly handles a pitching staff better than anyone else. The Cardinals will be pretty good again, but October will be boring in St. Louis as they miss the playoffs again.
2019 Prediction: 88-74
2018: 67-95 (5th in NL Central), 5 wins below COAS prediction; missed playoffs
The Reds went out and made one of the bigger moves of the offseason by trading for Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp from the Dodgers. The former is the bigger move than the latter, but Puig may benefit from a change of scenery and from getting lineup protection from Joey Votto. The rotation isn't bad either. While this squad was awful last year, I think some of these additions will make this Reds team a lot more competitive.
2019 Prediction: 76-86
2018: 82-79 (4th in NL Central), 18 wins above COAS prediction; missed playoffs
I was low on the Pirates last year, and go figure they ended up with a winning record. I'm maybe a little too low on this team, even with making some adjustments as I was writing this. This is a fairly young rotation that is still finding its way, but they're not bad, and the lineup is solid with guys like Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, and Jung Ho Kang in the fold. I still think the Pirates are the worst team in the division, and it's really not close, but they're not an absolutely awful team.
2019 Prediction: 66-96
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