Back on Monday I started going division by division to look at the upcoming Major League Baseball season, alternating leagues and moving across the country. As is customary, I always conclude with the defending champion's division.
So to wrap this all up, let's grab a look at the AL East. Happy baseball season!
AL East
Interleague pairing: NL West
2018: 108-54 (1st in AL East), 15 wins above COAS prediction; Won World Series
The defending champs bring back pretty much everyone from their title team, which is good when you have the reigning MVP in Mookie Betts, a couple other elite talents in Jackie Bradley, Jr. and J.D. Martinez, and some other good youth pieces. And that's before we get to that rotation led by Chris Sale and David Price. Give me Boston as the favorite to not only win the AL East, but probably to repeat as World Series champs.
2019 Prediction: 100-62
2018: 100-62 (2nd in AL East), 1 win below COAS prediction; Lost ALDS
New York is the argument playoff reformists will use to say that the team with one of the best records in baseball shouldn't be stuck in a one game playoff. But the Yankees moved onto a multi game series... and ran into the buzzsaw that won its own division, so maybe the argument has merit. The Yanks are going to be right back in the thick of things with a ridiculous core of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, plus sophomore campaigns for Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar... and they went out and got Troy Tulowitzki. The rotation is pretty good too, but the scary part is that any team that trails the Yankees going into the seventh is screwed due to that bullpen. Too bad the Yankees play in the same division as the Red Sox.
2019 Prediction: 98-64, Wild Card
2018: 90-72 (3rd in AL East), 25 wins above COAS prediction; missed playoffs
The Rays spent 2018 kind of revolutionizing baseball with a fairly liberal use of the "opener," something we'll probably see a little more of in 2019. They also have Cy Young winner Blake Snell, which has to count for something. I'm just not sure about the lineup. It's a lot of youth combined with a couple veterans in Mike Zunino and Tommy Pham. But that staff will have this team in contention.
2019 Prediction: 87-75
2018: 73-89 (4th in AL East), 1 win above COAS prediction; missed playoffs
There's a couple decent pitchers here in Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, but this team is a far cry from the squad that made back to back ALCS's not long ago. In a couple weeks, Vlad Guerrero, Jr. will come up and make a ton of noise, but you figure he's going to have some struggles here and there, and when the best guy on the rest of the roster is maybe... Justin Smoak? Kendrys Morales? Yeah, you're kind of in trouble for this year. Wait for the youth to come up.
2019 Prediction: 70-92
2018: 47-115 (5th in AL East), 38 wins below COAS prediction; missed playoffs
Major whoops. Last year I had the Marlins at 2003 Tigers-level of bad, not the O's. This is a team that has a couple decent pieces in guys like Trey Mancini and Jonathan Villar, plus Chris Davis' albatross of a contract, and maybe a pitcher or two that are okay, but it's going to be another bad year in Baltimore. I don't think they'll lose 115 games again... but think triple digit losses still in this gauntlet.
2019 Prediction: 60-102
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