Sunday, December 29, 2013

2013 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Quarterfinals

Bowl season is in full swing now. 15 games have been played to date. And to think: we could have a system where you still play these exhibition games with teams that had decent or good seasons, and still have a playoff to decide who the best of the best truly is.

I'm onto the second round now of what I feel is the best playoff system that was designed by the authors of the book seen to your left, and it had a little bit of drama in Round 1, but now it gets tougher. The top four seeds all advanced and get a second home game, but can they replicate their early results against tougher competition? Or will we see a couple more upsets stacked onto the pair that we had from the opening round? We're about to find out.

Like last round, the higher seeds do get home field advantage, and I tried to make the weather (taken from weather.com) as accurate to real conditions as possible. Each game will simulated as a best-of-three, but I'm only taking the "clinching" game as the real result. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get started.


12:00pm Game


(7)Missouri @ (2)Auburn
Game 1: (2)AUB 35, (7)MIZZ 23
Game 2: (2)AUB 23, (7)MIZZ 16 (2OT)
Auburn missed two 4th quarter field goals that would have avoided this situation, but they held their own in the extra sessions. Cameron Artis-Payne ran it in from 22 yards out on the second play of the second overtime for what turned out to be the game-winner despite Missouri getting an Auburn unnecessary roughness penalty to set up 1st and goal at the 10. They had 3 shots from about the 5 and couldn't get it done. Tre Mason ran 27 times for 162 yards for Auburn to help bail his team out, as kicker Cody Parkey went 3-6 on field goals. James Franklin went 21-34 for 257 yards and a touchdown for Missouri.

3:00pm Game

(12)Oklahoma @ (4)Baylor
Game 1: (4)BAY 65, (12)OU 34
Game 2: (4)BAY 45, (12)OU 14
In the day's other rematch, Baylor had a pair of punt returns for touchdowns in the opening quarter (based on their official stats, I'm guessing Levi Norwood, since he had a pair during the regular season, but WhatIfSports doesn't name a specific player). Norwood also hauled in a touchdown pass from Bryce Petty, who went 13-18 for 202 yards and two scores total. Shock Linwood and Lache Seastrunk each ran for a score, and Linwood went over 100 yards. Blake Bell had a so-so day, going 16-32 for 210 yards and two scores, but also threw a pair of interceptions.

6:00pm Game

(8)Alabama @ (1)Florida State
Game 1: (1)FSU 31, (8)ALA 24
Game 2: (1)FSU 41, (8)ALA 40
Wow. AJ McCarron threw for 300 yards on 21-33 attempts and had a pair of 4th quarter touchdowns, including a go-ahead score with 1:42 left to play. Florida State started its next drive from the 40 and after 3 incompletions, Jameis Winston hit Kelvin Benjamin for a 45 yard gain. Three plays later, Karlos Williams punched it in from a yard out to give the Seminoles the lead again. They failed on the two point conversion, and nearly had a scare when Alabama returned the ensuing kickoff to the Florida State 26. The offense stalled, and Cade Foster's 45 yard attempt as time expired was pushed wide left and bedlam ensued in Tallahassee. Winston went 19-33 for 274 yards and a score, but it was his running backs that did the bulk of the scoring. Williams had 85 yards and a pair of scores, while Devonta Freeman had 72 yards and three touchdowns. TJ Yeldon ran for 151 yards and a touchdown for the Tide.

9:00pm Game

(11)Central Florida @ (3)Stanford
Game 1: (3)STAN 41, (11)UCF 24
Game 2: (3)STAN 34, (11)UCF 28
WhatIfSports threw another "Huh?!" moment in the game that I'll get to in a moment. Kevin Hogan had a subpar day, going 15-33 for 208 yards, a touchdown and a pick. His running game did plenty of damage though, with 182 yards on 28 carries and a 45-yard touchdown for Tyler Gaffney. Anthony Wilkerson had 40 yards and a pair of scores to help out. Blake Bortles had a decent game for the Knights, completing 18 of 28 passes for 249 yards and two touchdowns, but was picked off once. The stupid moment from the simulator came on Stanford's final drive. Central Florida used all its timeouts to try and stop the clock but Stanford kept moving the chains. They took the last one with 1:27 left. Given the 25-second play clock at the college level, for whatever reason Stanford decided to take a knee three times, then inexplicably kick a field goal on 4th down and give UCF one last chance on a kick return. They got away with it, but it's dumb strategy in that case.

To see the updated playoff bracket, click here.

No real surprises in terms of results this week. The rematches all went the same way they did during the season, but we had three games with plenty of drama. Other than Baylor-Oklahoma, all these games came down to the final play, including a double-overtime game, a possible game-winning field goal, and a last-ditch kickoff return (that shouldn't have happened, but whatever). Isn't this what we want out of a college football playoff?

With the NFL Playoffs starting up next weekend, I had to change around my scheduling for the playoffs to not cause a conflict. I may not be a TV executive, but I'm smart enough to not run big time college games against the NFL. If memory serves (since I can't find official start times since they probably don't know yet), they usually do a Saturday afternoon and evening, then a Sunday early and late afternoon set. That frees up the Sunday night. Unfortunately it probably means I have to run my two semifinal games at the same time, but it's an evil I have to do. Next Sunday I'll have semifinal results for you just ahead of the actual B(C)S title game, and we'll see if I actually get an FSU-Auburn matchup that the biased polls and terribly written computer formulas set up.

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