I didn't watch much football this weekend with a lot going on, but I was thrilled Saturday to see my North Central Cardinals earn a trip back to the quarterfinals of the D-III playoffs for the first time since 2010. And the Death to the BCS Playoffs get quite a shakeup as well. I didn't watch much of the big-time action this weekend, but I did see the end of the Iron Bowl. Holy crap.
With Alabama and a couple other key teams losing, there is a definite shakeup in the overall standings, which impacts the playoff seedings compared to last week. As a refresher, the Death to the BCS Playoffs are based on the system in the book whose cover is seen here, where a 16 team playoff is built from all conference champions plus at-large bids. I'm acting as a one-man selection committee who is giving tentative conference titles based on records and filling in the at larges from there. Seedings are based on a review of each team's resume, with help from a few formulas. I include my Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS, for which you can see the most up to date info based on conferences here), Playoff Points (PP, basically showing how many wins the teams you've beaten have as something of a "strength of schedule" metric), and then computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin (SAG, found here, using the rankings in order of the list) and the late David Rothman (FACT, found here, though his formula is public domain and rankings based on his algorithm is compiled by someone at UCLA) which use margin of victory as a factor.
So with all the chaos and math in mind, let's see how things unfold.
1. Florida State (12-0, ACC "Champion", LW: 1- PP: 61; NCSS: 4; SAG: 1st; FACT: 1st)
2. Ohio State (12-0, Big Ten "Champion", LW: 3- PP: 62; NCSS: 4; SAG: 7th; FACT: 3rd)
3. Missouri (11-1, SEC "Champion", LW: 5- PP: 59; NCSS: 4; SAG: 5th; FACT: 4th)
4. Oklahoma State (10-1, Big 12 "Champion", LW: 4- PP: 55; NCSS: 3; SAG: 9th; FACT: 10th)
5. Auburn (11-1, At Large, LW: 6- PP: 66; NCSS: 3; SAG: 11th; FACT: 5th)
6. Alabama (11-1, At Large, LW: 2- PP: 54; NCSS: 3; SAG: 2nd; FACT: 2nd)
7. Stanford (10-2, Pac-12 "Champion", LW: 8- PP: 67; NCSS: 3; SAG: 8th; FACT: 7th)
8. Arizona State (10-2, At Large, LW: 7- PP: 63; NCSS: 2; SAG: 3rd; FACT: 6th)
9. Northern Illinois (12-0, MAC "Champion", LW: 9- PP: 46; NCSS: 7; SAG: 38th; FACT: 17th)
10. South Carolina (10-2, At Large, LW: NR- PP: 59; NCSS: 6; SAG: 16th; FACT: 13th)
11. Baylor (10-1, At Large, LW: 11- PP: 51; NCSS: 1; SAG: 6th, FACT: 11th)
12. Michigan State (11-1, At Large, LW: 13- PP: 49; NCSS: 4; SAG: 13th, FACT: 9th)
13. Central Florida (10-1, American Athletic "Champion", LW: 14- PP: 45; NCSS: 8; SAG: 37th; FACT: 28th)
14. Fresno State (10-1, MWC "Champion", LW: 10- PP: 41; NCSS: 3; SAG: 61st; FACT: 59th)
15. Rice (9-3, C-USA "Champion", LW: NR- PP: 31; NCSS: 9; SAG: 72nd; FACT: 72nd)
16. Louisiana-Lafayette (8-3, Sun Belt Champion, LW: 16- PP: 34; NCSS: 8; SAG: 81st; FACT: 76th)
Out of the playoffs: Clemson (13), East Carolina (15)
East Carolina's loss drops them out of contention for their conference title, and with 3 losses, that's not good enough to swipe an at large berth. Clemson, meanwhile, suffered a tough loss and looking through all the other one- or two-loss teams, South Carolina had the best resume. I'm a little sour on that Tennessee loss, but they also have a couple huge wins over playoff teams.
Of the ten conferences, only three don't have a championship game. Fortunately, this is partially solved already. I'm assuming Central Florida has the American Athletic title wrapped up, but with UCF not having played Cincinnati (who plays Louisville this coming week), a Cincy win coupled with a UCF loss to SMU creates a tie whose breaking scenario I'm not sure of. The Big 12 situation is complicated, with a trio of 7-1 in-conference teams sitting at the top, including upcoming week foes Baylor and Texas. A Longhorn victory coupled with Oklahoma knocking off Oklahoma State gives Texas the automatic bid. Baylor gets in with a win over Texas and Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State. OSU winning that game will give them the automatic bid.
Of the ten conferences, only three don't have a championship game. Fortunately, this is partially solved already. I'm assuming Central Florida has the American Athletic title wrapped up, but with UCF not having played Cincinnati (who plays Louisville this coming week), a Cincy win coupled with a UCF loss to SMU creates a tie whose breaking scenario I'm not sure of. The Big 12 situation is complicated, with a trio of 7-1 in-conference teams sitting at the top, including upcoming week foes Baylor and Texas. A Longhorn victory coupled with Oklahoma knocking off Oklahoma State gives Texas the automatic bid. Baylor gets in with a win over Texas and Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State. OSU winning that game will give them the automatic bid.
Looking above, the only team that has sealed its spot in the tournament is Louisiana-Lafayette. Despite a loss to Louisiana-Monroe, the Ragin' Cajuns remain at the top. A loss to South Alabama next week would drop them into a tie with Arkansas State, but the Cajuns have the head to head tiebreaker, so I'm giving them the bid and dropping the quotation marks from "Champion" for them.
Most of these other teams are probably already in though. As unbeatens, Florida State, Ohio State and Northern Illinois have all but punched their tickets, though losses in their respective title games may cause issues. (I think NIU would have the most to lose, and odds are FSU and OSU are probably safe with at-large bids). But again, this is why they play the games. Last year I had Nebraska pegged as the Big Ten "Champion" at this stage, and they lost to 7-5 Wisconsin. It knocked the Huskers out of the playoffs, but it was decided on the field. My intent is for these upcoming games to be the determining factors in who gets in for sure.
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