2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 5

We're approaching the quarter pole of the NFL season and... oh. Oh no.

In our biggest disputed week of the season so far, Adam took five of seven games and now find myself... woefully behind. Despite the excellent week for one Mr. Quinn, he is not in first place at this point. That honor belong to Jim, who has a one game lead on Adam among the group, thanks in large part to his dominance in hero picks. You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here.

I came really close to pulling an Adam and doing Opposite Week, and I was also tempted to try and do this podcast style just to try and change things up. For now, I'll hold off on that as Adam and I once again disagree on seven games out of 16.

Thursday Night

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (+1.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. Gonna take the home dog here. I know it's a Thursday night and not a Monday night, but shady [expletive] always happens in night games in Seattle. Yes, I'm still bitter.
Adam: Rams. LA comes back after losing to the high powered Cards. I just see this as a downish year for the Seahawks. Plus, who doesn’t love picking against Pete MF'ing Carroll?

Sunday Morning

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Look, as much as I love having football on on a Sunday morning, why is it always the crappy teams? Yeah, the Jets found the win column, but I don't see a streak coming.
Adam: Jets. This may be the dumpster bowl of the week. The Jets are coming off a big win against Tennessee, scoring more points in that game than the prior three games combined. Atlanta on the other hand just looks lost a lot of the time.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5)
Lucas: Packers. I'm impressed I only have to lay four in Cincy. Come at me, Joe Burrow.
Adam: Packers. Let the old guard show the way to the new guard.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-7.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Slow start up north, but the Vikings seem to be figuring things out a few weeks in. Getting the Lions helps.
Adam: Lions. Is it possible to say that you have a decent team that is 0-4? Well, the sad lions may just be the ticket. With quality losses (is that even a thing?) to San Francisco (late comeback surge), Green Bay (led at half), and the Ravens (Justin Effing Tucker), the Lions are a better team than a touchdown dog, especially in a divisional game.
Lucas note: The Lions' Pythagorean Record through four games is 1.1-2.9 (basically, their points for/against suggest they should have won 1.1 games thus far). I mean really, you can pin this almost entirely on Justin Effing Tucker.

Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)
Lucas: Steelers. With Teddy up in the air, I'll lay the points with the home team that played all right against Green Bay and maybe should have had more of a shot, given that the NFL penalizes you timing the snap.
Adam: Steelers. Contrary to the Lions discussion, Denver is maybe the most overrated 3-1 team. They have beaten exactly no one (yes, that means the Giants, Jags and Jets suck, sorry not sorry). Even with a limbering Big Ben the Steelers take care of business at home easy.

Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Jaylon Thomas and Stephon Gilmore are both going to sign for a pittance in Tampa to get rings, aren't they.
Adam: Buccaneers. This is a tough line for me. But I just have to go BLAAAHHHH!!! The Goat does it like usugh.

New Orleans Saints @ Washington Football Team (+1.5)
Lucas: Saints. No trust in The Team. I'll lay the points on the road.
Adam: Saints. This comes down to who have they played and who have they beaten. I like the NoLo thumping of the Fudge Packers in Week 1 over anything The Team has thrown down.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers (-4.5)
Lucas: Panthers. I... did not expect Carolina to get beat that badly by the Cowboys. Willing to think that's a fluke, at least for now. Getting a mediocre at best Philly team should be a good recovery game.
Adam: Panthers. Like we have seen so many times, often times a quarterback that many people write off (Exhibit A: Sam Darnold) as just being bad gets moved to a new team and enjoys a resurgence of what made them first round draft worthy.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5)
Lucas: Titans. Not that I trust the Titans particularly much, but I do in this situation. Also, I'm not a big fan of The Office, but I feel like I had to here.

Adam: Jaguars. Let us all raise our glasses to the death of the Urban Meyer Experiment. Go get dem college girls.

New England Patriots @ Houston Texans (+9.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Would not have expected to be taking the Patriots as double digit favorites this season, much less to be picking them as such, but here we are.
Adam: Texans. Just making a value play here. Per Yahoo! Sports, the over/under as of Wednesday morning is 39.5. If that hits exactly, that means the score is expected to be 30 to 9 at best. I like my odds of beating that.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)
Lucas: Raiders. There's a difference between lighting up the Lions and being able to do the same to a pretty good Vegas team. Especially considering the Bears are still thinking about using Andy Dalton at this point. Look, I have no ill will against the Red Rifle, but at this point you have to see what you have in Fields and tailor a game plan to his strengths, right?
Adam: Raiders. Matt Nagy said if the Red Rocket is healthy, he is starting. Does this man want to be fired? Maybe he and Urban can meet in Columbus to compare notes.

Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
Lucas: Chargers. Adam, you want to make the lightning delay joke here, or should I?
Adam: Browns. Am I the only one who thinks the Chargers are a little overrated? They just beat The Team, lost at the last second to the Cowgirls, did thump KC but I think they are having a generally down year, and needed a weather delay in their DOME stadium to beat the Raiders. Weather delay or not, Browns win.

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. I'm not sure if the meatballs in Dallas are among the common fans or if it's just the Hot Take Factory at The Fan, but if this is an indication of how Dallas media is feeling...

Adam: Cowboys. Breaking news from Tuesday night was the Cowgirls released Jaylon Smith. Only good news to take from this: it means that the decision was likely Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn’s and not Jerrah's. Maybe the old man is losing his grip on reality.
Lucas note: When did the old man ever have a grip on reality?

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-5.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. #CardsAreHot, both in Naperville and in the desert.
Adam: Cardinals. Dare I say Cards to the Super Bowl? Yes, yes I will. I knew they would be good, but they have been GOOD.

Sunday Night

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Lucas: Bills. I'm so torn, I could go either way. Screw it, I'm flipping a coin.

Adam: Bills. Joe "The Bossman" Klecka suggested that this would be a tough line. And I generally agreed. The Bills got off to a slow start and KC has not performed anywhere near expectations, but the decider for me: all you have to do is look at the stat line for last weeks Bills game. That’s right, THE BISCUIT got in on the action. I mean a 100% pass completion, dayum. But don’t bother looking at the attempt.
Lucas note: #SmallSampleSize

Monday Night

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I'm burned out; give me the better team laying a touchdown.
Adam: Colts. I said it last week, and I will say it again. Indy got a tough first three weeks, but they came back last week for a nice win. I don’t see a win here, but a cover should be in order.

Records So Far
Lucas: 28-36 (5-11 last week)
Adam: 33-31 (8-8 last week)
Joe: 31-33 (7-9 last week)
Geoffrey: 31-33 (8-8 last week)
Jim: 34-30 (10-6 last week)