Groupthink prevailed to an extent last week, and it ended up creating a deadlock: Adam took two of our three disputed games to move back into a tie for first as my uncontested lead lasted all of four days. He was happy to pull back into a tie for first, but wasn't happy with how the spread gods said no to what he thought were solid picks.
What I found funny was, after confirming that fact with Adam on Sunday afternoon, Joe texted that he would be right up there with us... if you consider ten games out "right up there." Now I refuse to count him out; I wasn't looking great going into Thanksgiving last year, then had the best week in contest history to get right back into contention. But leapfrogging four people and picking up ten games is a tall order, even with more than half the season still to go. It doesn't help that Joe generally... doesn't go hero; over the past 24 weeks of the contest, he has made exactly two hero picks. And it's those hero picks that have really helped Adam be in the tie for first, with an 8-4 record in those games, best in the group (technically tied with a 2-1 Geoffrey, but larger sample size wins). I'm riding a 10-2 mark in games where the group has split evenly on who we've picked to my spot at the top with Adam. You can view a full breakdown of how we've picked in relation to each other here.
You will also notice that, if you look at the record on here as well as on that spreadsheet, there's a major discrepancy with our ESPN standings. You may remember last week that Aiden forgot to pick every game other than the Thursday night contest in Week 6. In the interest of fair play combined with him not having any clue how those games played out, Adam got his picks for that week and found that he retroactively went 5-9. I've taken out the note about Aiden forgetting from last week's post and credited him the five points ESPN doesn't have logged for him.
I also got a little confused in prepping stuff for this week. Talking with Adam when he was in town last week, he's going to be on vacation one week in December where I'll need a backup for him. I mistook that for being this week and lined up Geoffrey Clark as a backup. Since I asked him to go through the effort I'll include his picks for this week as well, and hopefully he'll be able to join me again in December. Either way, I promise jabs about Jeff Blauser will be kept to a minimum.
This week Adam and I disagree on just five games out of 15; Geoffy and I only dispute three. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Washington Redskins @ Minnesota Vikings (-15.5)
Lucas: Vikings. It's a lot of points to lay, but the Vikings' offense seems to have woken up the past few weeks. Even with Adam Theilen a no-go, the way Stefon Diggs has broken out combined with what Dalvin Cook can do... prepare for a ton of Gjallarhorn.
Geoffrey: Vikings. They're a legit NFC contender this year (though you can say that about a few teams), and the Redskins still are adjusting to their coaching change.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons (+4.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. I'm amazed I don't have to lay more than this. The Falcons are garbage.
Adam: Seahawks. Atlanta just shipped its #2/3 receiver off to New England, and with Matty Ice on ice (hehe) even at home, Atlanta's leaky defense gives up a ton. I don’t see how Seattle doesn’t win by 14-plus. Oh and... check my magic crystal ball... you can forget that stupid comment Lucas just made about the West Coast team on the road playing a noon game.
Lucas note:
Geoffrey: Seahawks. Even if there's a slight chance Matt Ryan plays, you have to go with a fully healthy Russell Wilson. Oh, and the discrepancy between the teams helps make this decision easy.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills (-1.5)
Lucas: Bills. I'm not thrilled by the fact that they gave up a season-high 21 to the Dolphins, of all teams... but I don't see why they can't get back into form against a banged up Eagles team.
Adam: Eagles. Philly looked pretty sad last Sunday night in the Big D, and after taking the Big... ehhhhmmmm... the Eagles look to rebound in a big way against the Bills. Buffalo's defense is stout but beatable. I like the Eagles to win straight up.
Geoffrey: Bills. Someone needs to keep the pressure on the Patriots in the East, and the Bills are the only team doing it. Who would have thought we'd be picking Josh Allen over Carson Wentz when we started the season?
Lucas note: Not I.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Chicago Bears (-4.5)
Lucas: Chargers. Wait wait wait. I'm getting more than a field goal... against a team that refuses to run the ball, then expresses frustration as to why their run game isn't doing anything... all while their prized #2 overall quarterback in his third season does things like this?
Adam: Bears. Another week and another line where the Bears are giving points at home. I didn’t get last week's line, but this one seems a little better. I wish it was 3.5 or even 2.5, but the Chargers have not looked anything like they should. Assuming the Bears' offense can at least look “competent,” Bears win, but will be tougher than most think.*record scratch*— Seth Galina (@SethGalina) October 21, 2019
*freeze frame*
Yup, that's me, Mitchell, and you're probably wondering how I found myself in this situation.
Well, it all started about 6 seconds ago when my coach, Matt Nagy, called the simplest RPO in the playbook!
~a short thread~ pic.twitter.com/ZJLYfrV2Fl
Lucas note: I mean... *gestures to the tweet above*
Geoffrey: Chargers. Neither team has been impressive this season, but the Chargers' one-dimensional offense will beat the Bears', especially given that only two teams are ahead of them in passing. And besides, if a Blackhawks crowd this week was any indication, will anyone at Soldier Field really be behind Mitch Trubisky?
Kid got interviewed over the PA during intermission.— Mark Lazerus (@MarkLazerus) October 23, 2019
"Who's your favorite Blackhawk?"
Kid: "Jonathan Toews. Because he's the captain and he's good."
"What are you going to be for Halloween?
Kid: "A football player."
"Which player?"
Kid: "Mitch Trubisky."
Crowd: "BOOOOOOOO"
Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams (-12.5)
Lucas: Rams. Sorry, London, that you keep getting stuck with crap games. Rams in a rout.
Adam: Rams. I have not been a big fan of Goff, but against this dumpster fire of a team in Cincy, the Rams will be just fine and slide to an easy W.
Geoffrey: Rams. Despite an underachieving season, Jared Goff and Todd Gurley would have to severely be hampered by injuries that don't exist yet for them to lose this game. And how can the Bengals be motivated after Herb Lawrence insulted their city's signature dish?
What would be better than that Bears game. I’ll start— Herb Lawrence (@Ecnerwal23) October 21, 2019
Eating a whole plate of Skyline chili would be better than that Bears game.
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
Lucas: Colts. I keep getting screwed by the Broncos; I'm not falling for it against a Ewing Theory Colts team.
Adam: Colts. Here is another team in the Broncos that just dumped a solid wideout off to another team. This time, I think the result is quite devastating. Who does Denver even have lined up outside these days? Nobody I can name and with Flacco being Flakeo, Colts win.
Lucas note: I'm partial to "Joe Flaccid" myself, but I like the Flakeo nickname. Also, looking at the depth chart... Courtland Sutton (eh) and... Daeshon Hamilton? Woof.
Geoffrey: Colts. They've handled life without Andrew Luck better than anyone could have anticipated, and the Broncos would have no luck at all if they didn't have backup. The Colts should take care of business at home easily.
Lucas note:
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions (-6.5)
Lucas: Lions. Okay, let's try this again... after getting screwed by the NFL followed up by getting pillaged by the Vikings... against Danny Pennies the Lions finally get their revenge.
Adam: Giants. This could be a little bit of a trap game for the Lions; coming off of two tough losses to NFC North opponents, the Lions may have circled this game as an easy win given Eli’s benching and Saquon’s injury. It’s a bit of going out on a limb, but I say G-Men for the W straight up.
Geoffrey: Giants. This could be a trap game for the Lions, and it's time for Daniel Jones to have an explosive game. This could turn the Giants' season around in showing they're not too far gone, even if they likely won't make the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Look, you can say the Chargers got screwed on Sunday, but if Phillip Rivers would suck it up and do a freaking quarterback sneak we aren't talking about this. I'll take the couple of points and hope I don't get buried in pastries.
Adam: Buccaneers. Seems like the Titans may be my new Ravens. I just don’t fully follow the team and always discount them, but they continue to have generally short line (as I remember). I am just picking on gut here.
Geoffrey: Buccaneers. We could see a game that goes either way. Still, with the Titans dealing with a quarterback change, Jameis Winston would be wise to take advantage.
Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints (-9.5)
Lucas: Saints. Don't bet against Teddy Bridgewater... anywhere.
Adam: Saints. This will be a great early career game test for Kyler but as he has shown, he is still green and still learning. I can see him coming out early and making this interesting, but the Saints pull away. The line is right where I think it should be, but I would have liked it a little lower.
Lucas note: Me too if I'm being honest.
Geoffrey: Saints. Teddy Bridgewater is back, and he's not messing around. He'll have no problems picking the Cardinals' defense apart in the Superdome.
New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. If Sam Darnold is seeing ghosts, I think I have a referral for him...
Lucas note: ... the Internet is disappointing and I'm not talented enough with Photoshop/don't have the manhours required to make a convincing ghost Foles picture.
Geoffrey: Jaguars. God bless anyone who will find this an entertaining football game. Hope they enjoy Gardner Minshew smashing whatever is left of the Jets after that debacle we sat through Monday night.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
Lucas: 49ers. I refuse to discount this Niners team until such time as they force me to. I don't see the Panthers doing that, either with Kyle Allen or Cam Newton.
Adam: 49ers. The Panthers are still without Newton and the Niners just bolstered their receiving corps. At home, there is no way the 49ers do anything but cream the Panthers.
Geoffrey: 49ers. They'll lose at some point, but it won't happen here. It's hard to see the defense letting anyone get anything going at Levi's Stadium.
Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots (-12.5)
Lucas: Patriots. I'm hesitant to lay this much... but the Patriots are elite and the Browns are... not.
Adam: Browns. This line, in my opinion, is heavily dependent on which Browns team we see on the field. If we get the Browns team we all expected at the beginning of the season, this will be a close game; if we get an average team, the line is a touch high (I would say 10.5 would be right,) and if we get garbage of years past the line is way too low.
Geoffrey: Patriots. As tiring as it is to fall back on them every week, they're facing a Browns team that has taken a step back when it wasn't supposed to. By the way, the Tom Brady-to-Bears rumors are crap.
Lucas note: Dammit Schefty.
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans (-6.5)
Lucas: Texans. A week after getting lit up by Aaron Rodgers, they get to get lit up by Deshaun Watson. Progress?
Adam: Texans. I will have to admit, the Raiders are playing much better than I would have expected, especially without AB as a mega weapon. But the Texans have been lighting it up lately despite a loss last week. They do have some injuries but I think they will still prevail.
Geoffrey: Raiders. They're a better team than their 3-3 record indicates, and they've shown they can at least hold their own wherever they go. They should go into Houston ready to play.
Sunday Night
Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5)
Lucas: Packers. I'm sad; we miss out on what could have been a legendary shootout between two elite quarterbacks. But with Mahomes sidelined, and an overrated defense based at their stats having to deal with god-tier level Aaron Rodgers...
Geoffrey: Packers. Aaron Rodgers won't be bothered by that loud atmosphere at all. In fact, even if Patrick Mahomes hadn't been injured, it would be tough to pick against No. 12 coming off a week during which he literally was perfect.
Monday Night
Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. Do I trust the Steelers to cover a two touchdown spread?
Lucas note: Counterpoint: they've had some flashes where it looks like they might threaten before turning back into the Lolphins and give up a return touchdown on an onside kick. But I wouldn't be opposed to a Miami outright win if for no other reason than it may end up being the greatest episode of Days of Our Steelers ever.
Geoffrey: Steelers. Pick the Dolphins anytime this season, and you lose your license to make NFL predictions. But even discounting that would put the Steelers in the driver's seat against a last-place team.
Lucas note: All right Adam, pack it up; guess we're done. :P
Records So Far
Lucas: 57-49 (5-9 last week)
Adam: 57-49 (6-8 last week)
Joe: 47-59 (6-8 last week)
Geoffrey: 51-55 (9-5 last week)
Aiden: 44-62 (4-10 last week)
Jim: 50-56 (8-6 last week)
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