At this point, the group seems to be fully separated into tiers. It's your featured columnists... and everybody else a sizable chunk behind us. You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. Suffice it to say that, based on the tiers, looking at frequency and success of hero picks have been one of the reasons why Adam and I have found a little separation.
I buried the lede a little bit here from last week. Adam and I tied the record for number of disputed games with a dozen last week; the only other time that happened was back in 2016 (thanks to Adam for doing the research), but that was with a full 16 game slate. I'd argue disputing 12 out of 15 is the tiebreaker. Anyway, with that much disparity, I hinted that we may see a flip in the standings; go figure we split the disputed games evenly. That means Adam's three game lead over me holds, but to quote Lovie Smith, "We have a lot of football left to play."
This week, Adam and I disagree on eight games out of 14. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
New York Giants @ New England Patriots (-16.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Saquon Barkley may be an alien, but even he needs a little more time to heal a high ankle sprain. I don't see him going on a short week, which means Belichick can focus more on Danny Dimes. I'm hesitant to lay three scores, but if anyone can do it... it's this New England team.
Adam: Giants. Look, let’s not misconstrue this pick as a support for the Giants; with Jones under center the Giants have looked massively better. Maybe possibly mix in Saquon... maybe a week early, but even on the road I think the G-Men keep it close.
Sunday Morning
Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5)
Lucas: Panthers. Crank up the Run CMC, please. A steal for me at #3 overall.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-11.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I'm hesitant to lay double digits, even though through five weeks double digit favorites (anyone favored by at least 9.5 points) are 6-7 against the spread this season. Law of Averages says I probably shouldn't take a second one this week, but the Bengals are bad. I look forward to the Ravens winning by three scores but segments of the Raven fan base continuing to have a massive persecution complex. Don't chalk up to malice that which can be explained by incompetence, folks.
Adam: Ravens. I don’t like this line, but I also don’t like the Bengals. After a hot start the Ravens cooled off and only just pulled out a squeaker against Pittsburgh last week. I foresee things turning around this week and will take the Ravens by two touchdowns.Breaking: NFL has rigged the Ravens Steelers game.— Maryland Sports Blog (@MDSportsblog) October 6, 2019
Seattle Seahawks @ Cleveland Browns (+1.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. Jumping off the Cleveland bandwagon until they can prove they're ready.
Adam: Seahawks. In the dog pound are the Browns again. The Bandwagon is officially pulled over on the side of the road hemorrhaging fans, and what is that smell? Oh yeah, it’s the Browns... watch your step.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Lucas: Texans. It's going to take more than a couple sacks to slow down this Houston offense, and the Chiefs' defense can get lit up. Getting this much leeway, I'll take it.
Adam: Chiefs. What? Did we... Whhhhhhaaaaa? Has Indy found the Holy Grail on how to stop The Mahomes? Nah, just a little bump in the road. The Texans are a solid team with some high-powered scoring abilities, but The Mahomes comes back angry and at home for the win by a touchdown.
Lucas note: I read this and all I could think of were the Prophets from Deep Space Nine. I guess Patrick Mahomes is the Emissary.
Washington Redskins @ Miami Dolphins (+3.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANK BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWWLLLLLLL!
Adam: Dolphins. Gruden is out... not necessarily the annoying one, but still, a new coach is in. This change in command combined with the Fins coming off their bye and maybe a hungry fan base... Fins with the W, but hey give me them points too. And just for Joe... Fins Fan here.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
Lucas: Vikings. I could go either way on this. Apparently, so can the sharps based on the line. I'll lean towards the home team here.
Adam: Eagles. Despite Minnesota’s turnaround last week (and Adam Thielen danced quite the party,) I don’t see that happening again this week. The Eagles shut down Cook and drop Cousins several times. This game will not even be close; the Vikings' only possible savior is that it’s a home game.
New Orleans Saints @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)
Lucas: Saints. Jacksonville is mortal, and they're going up against an elite Saints team that isn't skipping a beat with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. I'll take the free point, thanks.
Adam:
Lucas note: I mean, I've given Adam a ton of crap for his Nick Foles hate, but considering I've picked against the Steelers in the past for those godawful bee jerseys, I don't have a ton of room to talk, do I?
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. Arizona finally won a game! We can build on this!
Adam: Falcons. This is their last chance for me. They have just too good of an offense on paper to have a 1-4 record. But Matty Ice has as many interceptions this year already as he did in 2018. Not a good sign. Also, the defense has not been a help.
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
Lucas: 49ers. I'm getting points with the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFC? In what might be a pseudo-home game for them? Come on.
Adam: 49ers. I am a little surprised this line is in favor of the Rams. I would have expected it to be the other way around.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets (+8.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. BAH GAWD THAT'S SAM DARNOLD'S MUSIC!
Lucas note: OH WA AH AH AH! Also:
Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Lucas: Titans. Denver finally pulled one out, but I'm not sure I can buy them again. Taking the points and the possible upset.
Adam: Broncos. I am going to reason that the Titans will be winded up in the Mile High City. And the Broncos will be riding high after a strong win against the Chargers.
Sunday Night
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
Lucas: Chargers. So you're telling me to take the points, I'd have to trust in *checks notes* ...Devlin Hodges? Don't think so.
Adam: Chargers. I am not sold on the Chargers yet, but the Steelers are down to their third string quarterback. I don’t love the line given that the Chargers lost last week with the same line and the Steelers took the Ravens to overtime, but I see this as a bounce back game for the Chargers.
Monday Night
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Lucas: Packers. This is a tough line, but Green Bay has found ways to manhandle opponents early and hang on late. I'll trust that at home against a better-than-I-thought Lions team.
Adam: Packers. Greeen Bay looks like the class of the NFC North. Yes, a Bears fan just said that. The Lions are showing much better than I anticipated but will not be able to stand up to the Packers.
Records So Far
Lucas: 43-35 (8-7 last week)
Adam: 46-32 (8-7 last week)
Joe: 37-41 (6-9 last week)
Geoffrey: 35-43 (8-7 last week)
Aiden: 35-43 (7-8 last week)
Jim: 36-42 (8-7 last week)
No comments:
Post a Comment