North Central and the NCAA Regional Rankings: Week 3 Edition

We're just five days away from Selection Monday, and I'm excited. That means the results of this week's regional rankings are of paramount importance.

In the first week's set of rankings, I explained how this system works. Last week with the second set results against regionally ranked opponents came into play. So now at this point, the rankings from Week 1 don't matter, and the record against regionally ranked foes comes from the Week 2 rankings.

This is the last set that will be publicly released ahead of the Selection Show, so this is the time to determine in how good of shape North Central is. The standings pictured after the jump do not take yesterday's CCIW Tournament games into account, but if you're on the full website, those games are a part of the standings.


Women's Basketball

7-18 Overall, 5-11 CCIW (7th)
Central: Unranked (out of 9 teams) (LW: NR)

As you probably read on Monday, North Central's season is over after a tough loss at Elmhurst to close out the string. Had the Cardinals won, they would have played at Augustana last night, where North Park pulled off the road upset. Is it too much to think that the Cardinals could have advanced to the semis as well were they to have played? I don't think so. But alas, games are not played on paper. So with a .320 win percentage, decent SOS of .533, but terrible record against RRO's (0-6), the Cardinals aren't even close to being in consideration.

The CCIW is in pretty good shape to get a pair of teams in though. Wheaton stood pat at #3 in the Central region (.833/.556/3-3), while Illinois Wesleyan jumped a spot to #4 (.840/.551/3-4). Both teams lost a pair of RRO wins with Carthage dropping out of the rankings last week, which doesn't help, but both go into the CCIW Tournament with outstanding win percentages and good strength of schedule. Assuming both make the title game, both will probably end up in the NCAA Tournament on Monday. There's a pair of UAA teams in the mix, one of whom will come off the board with an automatic bid, plus a UW-Oshkosh team that, if chalk holds, will get the WIAC's auto bid. That means whoever loses the CCIW title game should get a fairly early seat at the table, and the measureables are good enough that the wait won't be long.

Men's Basketball

20-5 Overall, 12-4 CCIW (2nd)
Central: 4th (out of 8 teams) (LW: 5th)

The men's side is where things get questionable. UW-La Crosse leapfrogged the Cardinals last week, and maybe due to North Central getting the benefit of an extra split of games from Illinois Wesleyan jumping into last week's rankings, I thoguht for sure the Eagles' win over UW-Oshkosh basically ensured the Cardinals would stay put in 5th in the region. Instead, the Cardinals found their way up.

Once again, North Central's biggest weakness is their strength of schedule. They have an .800 winning percentage after these rankings, which is outstanding, but only a .520 strength of schedule. That will go up following the CCIW Tournament regardless of result, but will it be enough? That range is considered pretty low, but one thing that encouraged me was looking at Pool C selections in prior years. In 2017, St. Lawrence out of the Liberty League went 20-5 in the regular season, lost their semifinal game, and made the Dance with a .769 win percentage (20-6), a slightly higher SOS than what North Central will have (.526), and a similar RRO record (3-5).

In the worst case scenario of losing on Friday, North Central will have almost identical numbers, but with the benefit of one of their three RRO wins coming against the top team in the Central, which has to count for something. This will make the Cardinals a bubble team, but one that should get to the table towards the end of the process. The question just becomes how many bid thieves there are and how the committee decides to look at the Cardinals. A win on Friday, however, would improve North Central's measureables even more. Their win percentage would go up to .778, strength of schedule would get another small bump, and their RRO record would jump to 4-4. Most of the experts say that this would make the Cardinals a lock, even though the increase in numbers is relatively minimal. Or, you know, the Cardinals could just go 2017 Mode and win the tournament, get the automatic bid, and make all of this moot. I'd be okay with that.

Looking at the rest of the conference, Augie is a lock, having remained atop the Central. Even a loss on Friday wouldn't be enough to bump them. Wheaton, meanwhile, should also be a lock at this point after making the CCIW semis and standing pat at #3. They should be one of the first couple teams to the table from the Central, especially if they advance to the title game. Illinois Wesleyan, however, is not in the best of shape after staying at #7. While a win on Friday would be good for them, it probably wouldn't be enough for them to leapfrog their way to Pool C conversation. Their only viable route in is to win the tournament this weekend.

No matter what happens, the CCIW should at least be a two bid league this year. There's a pretty good chance the conference gets three. Four is probably too ambitious... but crazier things have happened, right?