Super Bowl LIII Predictions and Prop Bets

I'd say it's the most wonderful time of the year... but as I was starting to prep this Naperville was still facing subzero temperatures and wind chills that can only be described as "stupid cold."

But the biggest game in American sports over the course of a calendar year is upon us once again, and that means Adam and I have work to do!

In what has become another annual tradition, we've continued to make football picks into the postseason, and we expand that come Super Bowl Sunday to include some of the prop bets. We touch on a lot of the in-game stuff, of course, but I also like to dabble in some of the specials.

So below, Adam and I will give our Super Bowl picks, and then we will continue on to the prop bets.

Super Bowl LIII

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Rams (+3.0)

Lucas: I waited until two days before the game to really make my pick on this one, mostly because I just don't know. The Rams are such a good team and have proved it this postseason by beating a tough Dallas defense and then taking advantage of controversy to steal a win in New Orleans. But the Patriots are the Patriots, and I just don't know that I can count out Touchdown Tom. This is probably going to be an instant classic where the last team to get the ball is going to go down and win. And in a situation like that... I'm sorry, I just can't pick against New England. Patriots 30, Rams 28
Adam: An epic turnaround from earlier in the season. Surviving the Bears, and even the miracle in Miami (thanks Gronk). All Deflategate, murders and cheating aside... the Pats come out to play and will win in a tight game. Not quite a field goal spread; a touch more, but still an exciting game. Oh and for the record, there will not be a 28-3 lead lost. Patriots 35, Rams 31

Postseason Records
Lucas: 4-6 straight up, 5-5 against the spread
Adam: 5-5 straight up, 3-7 against the spread

Prop Bets

Please note that in this section, we're using a point system where each prop bet has you "betting" 100 points. If you win the prop, you get whatever the payout would be. For example, a prop bet with a -150 line would give you 66.67 points; a bet with a +180 line would get you 180 points. Obviously, this incentivizes finding value in places. The game predictions are included here with the following lines:

• Game against the spread: -110
• Game straight up: Patriots -150, Rams +130
• Over/Under (57.0): -110

Here are the rest of the props!

First Touchdown Scorer
Lucas: Rob Gronkowski (+900)
Adam: Sony Michel (+500)

Tom Brady Passing Yards (+/- 300.5)
Lucas: Over (-140)
Adam: Over (-140)

Jared Goff Passing Yards (+/- 289.5)
Lucas: Over (-115)
Adam: Under (-115)

First Touchdown Pass
Lucas: Brady (-130)
Adam: Brady (-130)

Total Combined Rushing Yards (+/- 253.5)
Lucas: Under (-105)
Adam: Over (-125)

Will there be a defensive/special teams touchdown?
Lucas: Yes (+160)
Adam: No (-200)

Total Combined Sacks (+/- 3.5)
Lucas: Under (+120)
Adam: Over (-150)

Aaron Donald QB Hits (+/- 2.5)
Lucas: Over (+105)
Adam: Over (+105)

Will there be a successful 2 point conversion?
Lucas: Yes (+180)
Adam: Yes (+180)

Coin Toss
Lucas: Heads (-105)
Adam: Heads (-105)

National Anthem Time (+/- 1:47)
Lucas: Over (-170)
Adam: Over (-170)

Sean McVay Age Mentions (+/- 1.5)
Lucas: Over (-250)
Adam: Under (+170)

Will a touchdown be overturned by instant replay?
Lucas: No (-200)
Adam: No (-200)

Will a kicker hit an upright on a missed field goal/PAT?
Lucas: Yes (+350)
Adam: No (-600)

Which commercial will air first: Turkish Airlines or WeatherTech?
Lucas note: I normally don't include props about the commercials, but I had to make an exception for this one since WeatherTech is a client at work and no money is being bet here, so there's no impropriety.
Lucas: WeatherTech (+275)
Adam: WeatherTech (+275)

First Maroon 5 Song
Lucas: "Moves Like Jagger" (+600)
Adam: "Sugar" (+900)

Will Christina Aguilera make an appearance?
Lucas: Yes (+225)
Adam: Yes (+225)

Will CBS refer to the point spread or total?
Lucas: No (-350)
Adam: No (-350)

What color will the liquid poured on the winning coach be?
Lucas: Blue (+400)
Adam: Orange (+400)

Super Bowl MVP
Lucas: Tom Brady (+125)
Adam: Tom Brady (+125)

Total Points Possible
Lucas: 4291.66
Adam: 3809.76