One More to Go: A CCIW Update

Part of my annual series on North Central basketball includes a final look at the conference tournament picture. So with one more day of games on the docket, let's get to work on this.

I need to give a ton of thanks and credit to Greg Sager, play by play guy for North Park athletics and frequent contributor to D3Boards, who did pretty much all of the legwork on the various scenarios.

We've had years on opposite ends of the spectrum in the past when I've run this feature. Some years it's a simple "Win and you're in" prospect. Other years, you have teams with absolutely zero control over their own postseason fate because of the weirdness of tiebreakers. This year, with the expansion of the conference tournament from four to six, it made more games meaningful but also opened up a whole new world of clinching scenario possibilities.

Details come after the jump, but suffice it to say that the men's clinching scenarios are a lot simpler than the women's. If you're curious, you can view the CCIW tiebreakers here.

Women's Basketball

In prior years, I'd have absolutely nothing to write about this year as the tournament field would be all set. Instead of having four meaningless in terms of conference standings games, we have effectively two play-in games. Instead, you have four teams fighting for the final two spots, and the math here was complicated by the postponement of the Wheaton-Millikin game by a day. But with that game complete, here's the scenarios:

• Wheaton: Has clinched the #1 seed
• Illinois Wesleyan: Has clinched the #2 seed
• Carthage: Has clinched the #3 seed
• Augustana: Has clinched the #4 seed
• Elmhurst: Clinches a tournament berth with:
• A win vs North Central
• Elmhurst: Clinches the #5 seed with:
• A win vs North Central AND a North Park loss at Millikin
• North Central: Clinches the #5 seed/a tournament berth with:
• A win at Elmhurst
• North Park: Clinches the #5 seed with:
• A win at Millikin AND an Elmhurst win vs NCC
• North Park: Clinches a tournament berth with:
• A win at Millikin
• Millikin: Clinches a tournament berth with:
• A win vs North Park AND an Elmhurst win vs NCC

Tiebreakers

• North Central holds the tiebreaker over North Park due to a split with Carthage; Carthage swept North Park (Tiebreaker 3)
• North Park holds the tiebreaker over both Elmhurst and Millikin due to a split with Augustana; Augustana swept Elmhurst and Millikin (Tiebreaker 3)
• Millikin holds the tiebreaker over North Central due to a head-to-head sweep (Tiebreaker 1)

So for North Central, Elmhurst, and North Park, the math is simple: win or go home. North Central's only possible tournament outcome would be the #5 seed and a trip to Rock Island, while everyone else has a shot at the #6 seed. Millikin's only chance is that last spot, but they need some help to get it.

Men's Basketball

We have a similar scenario here. The #2 seed was up for grabs until Wednesday night, as was the #4 seed. The field is fully set, which makes this much less intriguing, but there are still a couple clinching scenarios.

• Augustana: Has clinched the #1 seed
• North Central: Has clinched the #2 seed
• Wheaton: Has clinched the #3 seed
• Illinois Wesleyan: Has clinched the #4 seed
• Carroll: Clinches the #5 seed with:
• A win vs Illinois Wesleyan
• An Elmhurst loss vs NCC
• Elmhurst: Clinches the #5 seed with:
• A win vs NCC AND a Carroll loss vs Illinois Wesleyan

Tiebreakers

• Carroll holds the tiebreaker due to a split with/sweep of Illinois Wesleyan; Illinois Wesleyan swept Elmhurst (Tiebreaker 3)

So much simpler. The field being already set helps, as does the top four being completely set in stone. While I didn't put it in the tiebreakers, North Central has the tiebreaker over Wheaton due to splitting with Augie; the Vikings swept the Thunder this season. But this tiebreaker could be interesting; Carroll's become a tough out of late and could play spoiler in the quarters.

I will at least do a write up of the men's quarters early next week, since the Cardinals will end up taking on one of these four teams. If the women make it as well, I'll do a write up for them as well. With luck... I'll have two posts to write!